The Spanish-American war does not occur

What if in 1898 the Maine had not suffered an accidential magazine explosion and the US never went to war with Spain? Instead, Spain holds on to the Philippines and Guam in the Pacific while Cuba eventually becomes a seperate nation. This means come WW 2 the Philippines and Guam are still Spanish colonies.
I will assume that at least in the PI that there is considerable unrest to continued Spanish rule, especially with Spain having just had a civil war.
At the same time the US while still having an interest in Asia and a committment to China does not hold any large possessions there otherwise. Wake, Palmirya, Johnson, Baker atolls are still US possessions but of minor interest pre-war.

In a WW 2 scenario similar to the historical one could Japan now avoid a US conflict? There would be very little in the way of US forces in Asia outside a possibly few gunboats in China as the US has nowhere to base a fleet out of. There would be no US land forces present beyond embassy guards and those on the scattered mid-Pacific atolls that would hold little interest for the Japanese.
Given that the US still embargos Japan and that the Japanese strike south into Malaysia, the DEI, etc, would the US still get involved? I think that US public opinion without a Pearl Harbor and invasion of US territory would be far more lukewarm towards what is preceived as a "foreign" war.

Would Spain give the Japanese basing rights? After all, they are a tenious ally / friendly with the Axis powers.

 

Certainly. At the time Portugal held the Eastern half of Timor island in the Indonesian archipelago, and the Japanese occupied it without a by-your-leave.

 

Good What if TA. Personally I think that yes, Spain would give Japan basing rights. If not, and Japan attacks, I think that Spain would give up the PI with nothing but protests. I agree that there would be unrest to Spanish rule at the time. People do tend to forget that historically the PI and the US were working towards the PI ruling themselves. I don't think the US would get involved unless there was another Nanking Massacre, and even then only a half chance. Although FDR supported Britain greatly and in this scenario Britain would still have to fight Japan, I don't think he would get the votes in Congress due to the isolationism of the time.

 

Very interesting what-if, I have discussed this possibility a few times on other forums.

First, I question whether the Philippines would still be a possession opf Spain in 1941. There are several reasons to believe that would not be the case. The Filipinos themselves would have been waging a war for independence since at least the turn of the century, and Spain with a moribund economy and serious domestic political issues to contend with would not be inclined, or possibly even able, to deal with a native Philippine liberation movement. I see it much more likely that Spain, strapped for cash in the early 1900's, would sell the Philippines to Germany or simply give them independeence rather than engage in a lengthy and bloody contest with Filipino patriots. It's also a strong possibility that Japan would acquire the islands, either by purchase or aimply invading them in the name of "stability". In any case, we can probably assume under this scenario that the Philippine Islands are not a US possession and more than likely would already have fallen under Japanese domination.

Does it follow then, that the US would have little or no interest in Asia or in particular, China? I don't think so. In fact, such a situation might increase US interest in China, and trade with other countries in Asia, since there would be little trade with the Philippines and no other outlet for Americans who wish to trade in Asia. It's almost certain that the US would still be championing the "Open Door" trade policy in Asia, and that tensions between the US and Japan would be very high. The US interest in China, historically, was not strictly a rational defense of trade interests; it was partially a romanticized idealism fostered by missionaries, the media, popular writers, and American's own worldview.

If you postulate that the American embargo would take place, obviously there would have to be a great deal of American concern over Japanese aggression in Asia and the Pacific. I think this would still be the case regardless of who possessed the Philippine Islands. In actual historical fact, the Roosevelt administration, in mid-1941, secretly pledged to Britain that if Japan attacked the European possessions in Asia, the US would "make common cause" with Britain. Britain assumed this meant that the US would immediately enter the war against Japan and it seems that is exactly what Roosevelt meant.

Roosevelt was, after all, committed to aiding Britain against the Axis and by 1941, Japan was part of the Axis. A Japanese attack on British colonies in Asia or the Pacific would seriously degrade Britain's ability to fight Germany, and almost certainly would draw the US into the war, even if there was no attack on Pearl Harbor. It is my personal opinion that Japan would still attack Pearl Harbor because the Japanese planning would have to assume US entry into any Pacific war.

Yes, if by some chance the Japanese forego the Pearl Harbor attack, an unlikely event in my opinion, then the US public would still be reluctant to support a war against Japan, at least initially. But I think the Japanese themselves would soon provide enough propaganda through their brutal behavior, to remedy that situation. Whether the US would be willing to pursue the total defeat of Japan, as envisaged in the original War Plan Orange, is another matter. If Pearl Harbor occurs, or if the Japanese exhibit behavior as historically, I think it's possible, maybe even likely. But even if the war does not produce the savagery seen historically, I think the US would conclude that it would be better to settle Japan's ambitions, once and for all time. From mid-1940, the US was building a "Two-Ocean Navy" specifically to be able to fight and defeat Japan while fighting Germany in Europe.

Basing rights in the Philippine Islands? No matter who owns them, the Japanese would base there, if they thought it advantageous, with, or without, rights being granted; they felt they were inherent Masters of the Pacific and it didn't matter who objected. But Manila was not that important to their goals. Nearby Formosa was already a built up base complex for them and served just as well for most purposes as the Philippines.

 

It seems to be nearly forgotton now, but one of the seminal events in the slide towards the Pacific War was Japans occupation of the French Indochina colony. In the late Winter/Spring of 1940 Japan occupied the key military positions, ordered the small French army into its barracks, and begain building up air and naval bases near Saigon.

This siezure of the French colony brought a sense of urgency to the discussions between the British, Dutch, and US governments. The start of the economic embargos occured soon after, which escalated to the eventual oil embargo. Other items cut off to Japan were machine tools, steel, and refined chemicals from the US. Japan depended on forigen ships for approximatly one third of its import of raw materials. US, Dutch, and other nations ships ceased contracting cargos for Japan which created a crisis for imports nearly as serious as the oil embargo.

If Japan invades or occupies the Phillpines it would be taken as seriously by the US as the occupation of French Indochina.

 

i don't know how it's written in the west but philippine revolutionaries were just about putting the icing on the spanish colonials when the amricans took over the occupation of the philippines. it took the americans three years to put down the filipino revolutionaries.

quite simply, the spanish would have left the philippines by then. the phils would be independent, with absolutely no capability of resisting a japanese invasion.

the bigger question would be, how much would americans have invested in liberating the islands come 1944?

i suppose the war would have gone straight to the japanese islands. intramuros wouldn't be destroyed in the fighting, but the massacre by col. onishi in manila might still have happened. american forces would have concentrated on japanese forces in clark, subic, cavite, and bataan.

 

I understand the premise, but doubt that Spain would (as mentioned by others) still be in control of the Far East possesions, or Cuba for that matter.

Since that would ignore the fact that America had been sort of "eyeing" Cuba for nearly the entirety of the 19th Century, the height of the "Manifest Destiny" sentiment! As early as 1823 when John Quincy Adams described; "a law of political gravity whereby just as an apple must fall eventually to the ground, Cuba would one day fall to the United States."

After the Civil War, Americans (especially President Grant) adopted a "holier than thou" attitude concerning slavery, and focused on Cuba as the natural extension of eliminating that "peculiar institution". After many years of attempts to clandestinely help "liberate" Cuba from Spanish control up to and directly after our own Civil War in America (running guns to the insurrectionists for some of the time).

By 1880, U.S. investment in Cuban sugar, both fields and mills increased. Only six percent of Cuban sugar exports went to Spain, and over eighty-six percent went to the U.S. with the rest spread out on the free market.


However, the position of American politicians is made even more clear in 1881 when U.S. Secretary of State James G. Blaine writes; "…that rich island, the key to the Gulf of Mexico, and the field for our most extended trade in the Western Hemisphere, is, though in the hands of Spain, a part of the American commercial system… If ever ceasing to be Spanish, Cuba must necessarily become American and not fall under any other European domination."

Ten years later, on May 16th, 1891; From The Detroit Free Press: "Cuba would make one of the finest states in the Union, and if American wealth, enterprise and genius once invaded the superb island, it would become a veritable hive of industry in addition to being one of the most fertile gardens of the world. There is a strong party growing up in the island in favor of reciprocity with and annexation to the United States. We should act at once and make this possible."

By 1894, less than 20% of sugar mill owners in Cuba are Cubans, and now more than 95% of all Cuban sugar exports go to the U.S. This sets the stage for one of Cuba’s greatest tragedies: a single-crop economy with a single country to sell to, America. This forced Cuba to be an importing colony in that rice, beans, meats, cotton, and other material goods had to be imported to feed and clothe the populace.

And as to our expansion into the Pacific, America's annexation (questionable legallity) of Hawaii in 1898 put the US into the Pacific. For most of the 1800s, leaders in Washington were concerned that Hawaii might become part of some European nation's empire, not necessarily Spain. During the 1830s, Britain and France forced Hawaii to accept treaties giving them economic privileges. In 1842, Secretary of State Daniel Webster sent a letter to Hawaiian agents in Washington affirming U.S. interests in Hawaii and opposing annexation by any other nation.

Webster also proposed to Great Britain and France that no nation should seek special privileges or engage in further colonization of the islands. In 1849, the United States and Hawaii concluded a treaty of friendship that served as the basis of official relations between the parties. It took until 1898 for the many times tried annexation put foreward by sugar baron Dole to be a "done deal".

The method was far from "upstanding" since a group of American businessmen, led by Dole actually took over Hawaii in 1893 and declared it a " provisional Republic" and then tried to get American support for annexation, which was denied for six years and two Presidents (Harrison and Cleveland) until McKinley finally got the deed done. Guess what Hawaii’s main export to the US was, yupper, sugar. And let’s not neglect that by extension, since 1844, sugar has been the Philippines' leading export crop. Most of its sugar production has been historically exported to the United States.

The USS Maine was only something which American’s could get excited about, and drummed up by the press go to war over, Americans probably wouldn't and won't fight for their sweet tooth, or the businessmen who satisfy it. The same might be said for our latest addiction, oil if the truth were told.

But an interesting "what if" none the less.

 

Clint.. thanks for the usefull history leasson. Reminds me of the US Marine slogan of the Bannana Wars: "Standing Guard for Unitied Fruit Corpration' or some such.

Have you by chance run across evidence of any busness or property connections between General MacAurthurs family and the Phillpines?

 

Ok in light of Clints post; how bout if Mr Dole drops dead and the US business interests in the Pacific do not result in possesion of the Phillpines?

 

The Japanese occupation of French Indochina occurred in two phases and it's important to distinguish between them because each phase was undertaken for a different reason and held different implications for the Allies and the US.

The first phase was the occupation of North Indochina beginning in September, 1940. The Japanese signed an agreement with Vichy France to allow passage of troops through French territory, and limiting the number of Japanese troops which could be in the colony at any given time. In the event the Japanese Army almost immedaitely violated the agreement. The rationale for the Japanese was to allow them to have military bases on the southern flank of Nationalist China, and put additional pressure on Chang Kai-shek's government by cutting off all external aid. The US especially, did not like this development, but the American response amounted to only diplomatic protests underlined by limited economic sanctions in the form of an embargo on certain materials such as scrap iron, and aviation gas.

The second phase occurred in June, 1941, and held much more serious implications for Britain, the US, and the NEI. The Japanese insisted, even though no country was then threatening Indochina, that they had to move troops into the southern part of the colony (roughly what is now south Vietnam) in order to "protect" the French territory. Britain, the US and the NEI saw through this Japanese charade, and quickly realized the only reason for occupying southern Indochina was to seize airbases from which Malaya/Singapore could be attacked, and the NEI invested from the north. Britain and the US immediately protested and froze Japanese assets effectively embargoing petroleum and numerous other commodities which Japan sorely needed. This was the last step in a long history of Japanese aggression which eventually led to war.

 

The history of US interest in Cuba and Hawaii is interesting, but has little to do with the what-if. Historically, it's a given that US business interests drove the acquisition of the Philippines, but there was a vocal US domestic anti-imperial lobby (including Mark Twain), and the annexation was a near thing and could very easily have gone the other way. So Spain holding on to the Philippines even after a US-Spanish war is not very far-fetched at all. Germany was also interested in the Philippines during this period and might easily have acquired the PI as it did some other Pacific territories. But had that happened, it's most likely Japan would have snapped up the Philippines during WW I. Either that, or the patriotic PI liberation movement would likely have won eventually, opening up the islands to Japanese domination. In any case, if the US does not acquire the PI, the most likely outcome by 1941 is that they are either annexed outright by Japan, or they are under Japanese "protection".

 

Well, no matter how you follow this WI it mostly leads away from a US military presence in PI December 1941. The lack of understrength infantry corps and airforce in PI does not change much elsewhere. However without PI War Plan Orange with have a different character, and it is less likely two competing offensive plans will develop simltaneously in the Pacific.

MacAurthur will not have a post retirement career as the PI army chief of staff. It is possible he will either turn to business or become involved in politics. In either case he will not be remembered as notable US General. but, instead be another forgotton WWI commander and Army Chief of Staff, like Sommervel or Craig.

 

I'd like to add a bit to Mac Bolano's post.
At the height of the Philippine Revolution, the Spanish had lost control of most of the Philippines. The Revolutionary Army had already surrounded Intramuros and was just a matter of time before the Spanish colonial government fell.
When the Spanish American War erupted, Admiral Dewey's fleet was sent to the Philippines. What was known as the Battle of Manila Bay was a sham. The Spaniards, who were unwilling to surrender to the natives, negotiated with Dewey. Dewey, in turn, convinced the Filipinos to turn their lines over to the Americans. And that's when the Spaniards decided to give in. In fact, on June 12, 1898, the Philippines had already declared independence in Kawit, Cavite and had its own constitution and government during a convention of the revolutionaries in Malolos.
Another point, when Dewey entered Manila Bay, the Spanish American War was over. In fairness, he didn't know the war had ended. The report about the war ending came too late.
Now let's look at the scenario.
So, if the PI was not an American colony, I believe that the PI would still have strong ties, based on family kinship and four centuries of dealing with each other, with Spain, especially after four decades have passed since the revolution. The Filipino who inspired the start of the revolution against Spain had actually wanted autonomy if the colony wasn't allowed representation in the Spanish Cortes.
If that's the case and with Franco taking control of Spain, it's within the realm of possibility that the PI would follow his lead and be more sympathetic to the Axis.
However, I have to qualify this probable Axis sentiment. The PI might start out as Axis leaning and allow Japan to move in without a fight. But given Japan's historical record of treating non-Japanese in World War II, the Axis leaning sympathy would quickly evaporate.
And I agree to the point raised earlier in this thread that the Allied drive in the Pacific would most likely bypass the Philippines. Like Rabaul, the Japanese there would be left to wither on the vine. And if that's the case, I have to disagree with Mac about the Intramuros massacre. The massacre of Intramuro's inhabitants started when members of the Japanese navy ran riot in the walled city after the Japanese Army declared it an open city. I still have strong feelings about the massacre but I'll call a spade a spade. With the members of the Japanese Navy deciding to slug it out, other sub units of the Japanese Army were forced to stay within Manila and fight because if they didn't do so, they would lose face before their naval brethren. If the Allies had bypassed the Philippines, that large scale massacre probably wouldn't happen. Other atrocities could have occurred but I doubt that it would be in the same scale.

 

The history I was taught, Dewey defeated the Spanish squadron in the battle of Manila Bay. In the aftermath, being congratulated upon his 'flawless' victory, Dewey replied that he had in fact made a mistake, and that was that he should have sunk "that squadron over there" and pointed to a German squadron present in the harbor.

Given that the Germans were expansionist, perhaps they would have taken the philippines from the Spanish. If so, then the PI would have fallen to Japan in WWI as part of the spoils (like the rest of Germany's pacific possessions), right?

So If the US had not gotten the PI, why would they not have fallen to the Germans, and then thus to the Japanese?

And if the Japanese possessed the PI from the end of WWI on, what effect would this have had on WWII? Was PI oil already known or developed at this time?

Any thoughts?

 

I have to point out that the Philippines has very little oil producing capacity. In fact, the PI is a net oil importer. And the oil deposits found to exist in the country is under the sea, most of them located near the island of Palawan. In the past 35 years, several oil companies have looked at these deposits and deemed them as not economically viable to be exploited.
The country has one off shore platform to obtain natural gas off Palawan and there are plans to build one oil platform one one oil deposit.
Shadow Master, the basic answer to your question on PI oil is "no."
If the PI (RP for Republic of the Philippines is what we Filipinos prefer to use but a rose by any other name is still a rose) had been a German possession, however unlikely it seems to be to me, it would not necessarily mean the archipelago would be given to the Japanese.
Historically, England had succeeded in kicking out the Spaniards from the Philippines and the UK ruled the colony for a couple of years. The British found their hold untenable because of the local inhabitants supported Spain. In fact, a Spanish colonial officer had staged a successful guerrilla war with native troops against the British.
Also a British merchant company also opened trade relations with a Filipino sultanate that was based in Sulu and succeeded in leasing Sabah, which later on was annexed by Malaysia, which was a British colony.
Based on these, the British would have a stronger historical claim on taking over the Philippines under a League of Nations mandate than the Japanese did at the end of World War I. Besides, looking at a map, the Philippines is surrounded by British and Dutch colonies and with Britain being a stronger power than the Dutch, it's likely that the Philippines would have went to the British.

That's about it,
Fil

 

IIRC it was the Battle of Minila that is believed to be a sham. The Battle of Minila Bay was not.

Again see above. The battle of Minila bay was one of the first battles in the war. The battle of Minila ended it.

 

How about the Phillipines fulfilling a role similar to continental Spain for Germany. Meaning, what if the Philipines were used as a supply base for Japan. Spain being 'neutral' Japan could feasibly get supplies through the PI.

 

This is the way I recall the timeline in the Philippines, and Falcon Jun I may be way off as you are the native of the area. Dewey’s Fleet contained these warships, the Boston, Olympia, Concord, Petrel, Baltimore, Raleigh, and the Hugh McCulloch (an armed frigate which was a Department of Justice cutter) was guarding Dewey’s two supply ships, and they entered Manila Bay in the dawn hours of May 1st. Four MONTHS before the Armistice was signed suspending the fighting, but not ending the war which didn't happen until December.

The only major contested issue in the Treaty of Paris was the question of what would happen to the Philippines. Because of Dewey's decisive victory at Manila on May 1st, President McKinley refused to simply give the islands back to Spain, an act he felt would be a cowardly betrayal of the Filipino people who had been fighting for their independence before this time. The Spanish, however, had a semi-legitimate complaint as to their possession of the Philippines. Since it took so long for US ground troops to arrive to reinforce Dewey, the actual surrender of Manila (capital of the Philippines), took place on August 13th, one day after the American-Spanish armistice was signed, but the news of which had not yet reached the Philippines. Then one must also factor in the International Date Line which makes the Philippines date the 13th when it is still the 12th in Europe and America.

Technically, perhaps the US should have stopped all fighting when that was signed, but with the time-lag and Date Line, an unrealistic position to take. None the less the Spanish claimed that the US conquest of the Philippines did not count. Consequently the American negotiators offered the Spanish a deal: $20 million dollars for the Philippines. The Spanish accepted this offer, ironically the exact amount they had refused when offered by Andrew Carnegie previously. Andrew Carnegie had offered the Spanish 20 million dollars of his own fortune for surrendering the possession of the Philippines so he could set the Filipinos to their own independence, but was refused by the Spanish throne before the war broke out.

Part of the German’s Far East Squadron eventually started showing up in Manila Bay the next day (May 2nd, including the Flagship Kaiserine Augusta later) and were ostensibly engaged "observation", along with Japan, Britain and France. They were "observing" and in supplying their country's interests in the city, with food and other supplies, and in consequence seemingly supplying the Spanish. The American Navy under Dewey called the German’s bluff when they showed their intention to fight. When the German ship Cormoran failed to heed a USN launch sent to ask its intentions, a shot was fired across it’s bow by the Raleigh. The German contingent included the light cruiser Irene, and a transport ship the Darmstadt in the first week, and by the end of June had five warships in Manila Bay.

The Germans weren’t the only powers to show up at Manila Bay as soon as the Spanish fleet was destroyed, the British, the French and the Japanese also appeared, to "observe".

The newly organized Unified Germany had come rather late to the "global colonization" race, and ended up playing catch-up. In order to placate the new Imperial Germans after the Treaty of Paris was signed, they also gained territories in the Pacific which they had not held before-hand. In particular Samoa, The Marshalls, The Marianas, and The Carolines. I think they also gained a portion of Micronesia at this time (1899).

As a rather humorous aside, Guam was captured with only one shot being fired, Captain Henry Class on the USS Charlston fired one warning shot on June 20th, the Spanish governor/general in charge of the island, had himself rowed out to, and boarded the ship whereupon he requested to borrow some powder in order to return the ships salute as all the gunpowder on the island was damp and useless!

 

All I can say is oops and sorry. Okay, the Battle of Manila Bay was not a sham but it was a turkey shoot. I really meant the Battle of Manila was the sham. And in the way I wrote it, I inadvertently compressed and blurred the time between the battle in the bay and the walled city and compounded my error by typing entering Manila Bay instead of just entering Manila. I took a short cut and blundered and the result is skewed timeline.
Good work, guys!

Now, since you took the time to rightfully point out my error, I'd like your two cents worth of the scenario I proposed about the UK instead of Japan getting the Philippines under a League of Nations mandate.

Pzjgr, with the Philippines neutral, well the islands can be used as a "secure" source of supplies, such as food, rice and water and what little industrial goods and raw materials the archipelago can provide. Japan can get supplies, but only if Japanese ships can get to the Philippines, load the supplies and survive the return journey.
The Japanese didn't really have an efficient convoy system to protect their ships and the Allies, particularly US subs, took advantage of this Japanese deficiency.

 

Nice one - I could imagine an independent PR with a pro-fascist leadership which would allow the Japanese to base ships/planes on its territory. Not having to fight in the Philippines would free up more resources for the push into Malaya and the Netherlands East Indies. If there is no Pearl Harbor then the Japanese would be at Australia's door sooner and stronger.
But if there is an attack on Pearl then the resources sent to the PI could be diverted to defend the NEI. It raises the question, could the battles at sea and in the air around Java have had a different outcome if the US had sent more ships and aircraft to join the fight? and maybe led by a more tenacious commander?
Probably not - same outcome just more Japanese casualties