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What if Germany did not declare war on US

Discussion in 'What If - European Theater - Western Front & Atlan' started by SV, Jun 30, 2005.

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  1. SV

    SV Member

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    Soon after Pearl Harbor, Germany declared war on America. If Germany would not have done that, do you think that America would have still fought Germany? Personally I think that if Germany would not have declared war on America that it would have been a bad move for FDR to declare war on the Third Reich. It could had a hugly different outcome in the European Theatre.
     
  2. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    A very bad mistake by Mr Hitler.

    It would have taken 1-2 years before the US would or could have declared war on Germany and by then the Germans could have developed all kinds of nasty military equipment to deal with their enemies.
     
  3. us11thairborne

    us11thairborne Member

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    Luckily for idiots like Hitler he did declare war and thank god our nation stepped up to the challenge and with the help of our soviet "allies" and british allies, we defeated Hitler quickly. But god knows what the hell it would of looked like if Hitler did not declare war on us. Europe might look a bit different politically today, or it might just of cost America millions of lives, as a result of our ignorance throughout the 1920s-1930s.
     
  4. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    Eventually, the US would have been drawn into the war in Europe. Lend-lease and US sales of war materials to the Soviets and Britain would have seen to that. Hitler could not have allowed the US free access and U-boat sinkings of US merchant ships and encounters with US warships would have seen to that.
    The most likely scenario is that the Japanese are far more quickly defeated by the entire mass of the US military...say late 43 to mid 44 and then the Germans....in a stalemate with the Soviets and Britain....get the dubious pleasure of a nuclear armed USAAF with B-29D bombers for which they are totally unprepared oblitherating their cities under mushroom clouds.
    The longer the Germans go without resolving the British war and in starting a war with the Soviets the greater the likelihood the US is not only fully mobilized but has developed and mass produced equipment equal to or better than anything the Germans can build.
     
  5. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    T.A.

    You probably know or can give an estimate here:

    How fast could the US produce, say, some 5-10 A-bombs from Plutonium/Uranium if we continued from the "Two bombs dropped in Japan" situation August 1945 and these were considered priority 1?
     
  6. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    There was a thrid already assembled and on its way to Tinian when the second one was dropped. About a dozen more were in various stages of production when the war ended. It would have been about 6 months to the US having 8 to 12 bombs assembled.
    In the case where continued use (God forbid) was contemplated, I have little doubt that the US could have produced about 1 or 2 a month through 1946 with production rising substancially after that.
    The reason I mention the D model B-29 is it was about 30 -40 mph faster than the A model and flew about 5000 feet higher when cruising. As the Germans really didn't have the manufacturing capacity to produce truely high altitude fighters (they produced a handful during the war originally) they would have been very hard pressed to find a solution to the B-29. The British would have not really put any urgency on finding such a solution and, certainly the Soviets wouldn't have.
     
  7. Professor

    Professor Member

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    Didn't the Manhattan Project received it's final boost from displaced German scientists from the Third Reich? That's what I have been told. Without the plans from those scientists who came very near to developing a nuclear version of a V2 for Hitler, the Manhattan Project would have taken considerably longer. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
     
  8. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    The US did receive a benefit from physists that fled both Nazi Germany and Italy prior to the start of WW II. This was due in part to racism on the part of the Nazis and, also in part to their anti-science bent. Physics, and in particular, theoretical and nuclear physics were considered not-Nazi and a breeding ground for opposition to the socialist line.
    By 1939 Germany had gone from the world leader in publishing physics papers and doing theoretical work to next to last place just ahead of the Soviet Union while the US had jumped to first.
    As far as the German nuclear bomb goes, they were at least a decade away from a workable device in 1945 and, the V-2 could not have been developed into a useful carrying vehicle with bombs of that period. The V-2 carried only a 2000 lb warhead. Nuclear weapons of the late 40's weighed in at 8 to 10,000 lbs. Even the Convar improved MX-778 which was a cleaned up and improved V-2 could only manage about 6,000 lbs.
    Also, the US knew that they were likely to be drawn into the war in Europe. They had made great strides towards mobilization and preparing industry for war production starting in the late 30's. The Manhattan Project would likely have proceeded just as it did regardless of whether Hitler declared war in December 1941 or the US entered the war at some later date.
     
  9. Komninos

    Komninos Member

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    Also I think Germany was a lot behind in the nuclear bomb business. The bombing of their heavy water facilities sure didn't help either. From what I heard they were mostly thinking of a dirty bomb, that is spreading radio-active material over London, not a true nuclear blast.
    (I think I read in this board that Germany shipped its uranium stockpile to Japan upon surrendering, but the sub carrying it was captured and the uranium used, along with the uranium the US had at that time, for the bombs that were used on Japan. Is that true?)

    A late entry of the USA into the war would have perhaps allowed the Germans to develope more special weapons. Surely the Arado bomber and the Me262 Jet fighter would prove a lot more problematic. I think it could take on the US bombers and then there was the Comet163 that sure could. In any case the US was into the war almost from the start. Whether it actually had declared war or not is mere words. They were providing aid to the Allies, very important aid and gearing up their industry and mobilising their army. It wouldn't matter if they declared war 'officially' sooner or later. On the other hand I don't think the US had any more forces to spare on the Pacific front unless they wanted to take a gamble on the Allies (especiallly the Russians) losing badly to the Germans while they 'took care' of Japan. I don't think there was any way of quickly defeating Japan anyway. It was well established in the region and on the ground for the US and Brittish forces at that time (and place) and even a slightly soooner ejection and constraining of Japan to its own island would not take them out of the war. I don't think they would have surrendered before the nukes in any case. And invading their island was pretty hard after Germany was defeated and the Allies had many armies and tech and stuff. It was impossible in the time frame you mention.
     
  10. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    On the subject of jets, the US wasn't unaware of developments in that field. The British (Tizard Missions) gave the US their work in the field and even sample engines. By late 42 the British were very surprised to find that the US, without a flying jet prototype and, no jet engines in production were already building a 6 million square foot plant and planning to produce 5000 engines a month.
    So, while the Germans were ahead in this field they wouldn't be for long.
    And, there was literally no way the Germans could match the prodigious amounts of productivity the US proved capable of. Just look at Ford's Willow Run plant in Illinois. The main assembly hall was over a mile long. The subassembly buildings would have swallowed most German aircraft plants whole. This plant produced a B-24 in an hour.
    By comparison, Junkers Dessau one of the largest plants in Germany managed a single Ju-290 (a rough equivalent in complexity) per month!
    As for defeating Japan, the Japanese were essentially on the ropes 6 months after Pearl Harbor. By Midway their offensive potential at sea was severly limited. On land, it ended just 2 months later with the opening of Operation Shoestring on Guadalcanal. Without a European front to concern them the US could have easily supplied their attack on Guadalcanal (originally just 6 large assault cargo ships were allocated for support due to a shortage from the Torch landings).
    The Japanese did not even begin heavlly fortifying their islands in the Pacific until after the Mankin raid where they finally realized that the US might actually try and take islands in an offensive. With a shorter offenisve cycle time due to vastly more resources thrown into the Pacific islands like Tarawa would have fallen much sooner and with far fewer casualities.
    Whether the home Japanese islands are invaded or simply choked off economically, the end result is the same: The Japanese have lost surrender or not. Garrisoning the adjacent lands and maintaining a blockade are not going to substancially effect a war in Europe. After all, at sea the Germans have just their U-boats and producing ASW craft is quick and cheap comparatively for the US.
    In a war where economics and productivity were going to be major factors, the Germans were doomed, particularly when the US is factored in.
     
  11. Friedrich

    Friedrich Expert

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    Indeed, but the bulk of their forces (specially their fleet) remained relatively intact well until 1944. Even the 4 carriers lost at Midway had been replaced by this time… though we know Japan didn't stand a chance.
     
  12. PzJgr

    PzJgr Drill Instructor

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    Agreed. Like the Germans, they overextended themselves. What is the old saying, "one who defends everything, defends nothing"
     
  13. Friedrich

    Friedrich Expert

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    Welcome back, Ike! Long time no see! [​IMG] :cool:
     
  14. Stevin

    Stevin Ace

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    Same here! Good to se eyou again PzJgr. Long time AWOL! ;) :D
     
  15. Major Destruction

    Major Destruction Member

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    While it might be nice to select the events as they happened and then suppose that the same events would come to pass under different circumstances, I tend to differ.

    Firstly, if the USA is not drawn into the war with Germany but is drawn into the war against Japan, then presumably there would be some sort of alliance with Britain in the war against Japan.

    This is now a world war.

    What happens if for example German forces push into Iraq and Saudi Arabia? Now, the British navy is starved of oil and can no longer function. What was the level of dependence of the US navy on oil from that region apart from using the RN for protection of lend lease convoys to Britain and USSR?

    What are the US national interests in protecting that area?

    What assistance would the USA give to India in its defence against Japan?

    And also, assuming that air power alone is unable to defeat Germany (why does this sound so vaguely like something that Goering said?) how would American troops so quickly relearn the art of war when once Japan is defeated they march into Germany and take on the wehrmacht?
     
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