What if Spain had joined the Axis?

I guess there were good infrantry there and the the Canary Islands have a terribly steep geography .... All that stuff might added a fourth Lion's head in the Tenerife´s escutcheon.

Nelson in Tenerife

The mountainous Canary Islands are at less than 100 miles from the El Aaiun (Spanish Sahara) which is relatively close of the N Africa french standard gauge railway . (NOT in the map)

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I was talking about the LW blockading Gibraltar, Southern Spain is not the middle of nowhere, the LW actually had some experience of the area from the air bridge that brough Franco's troops over to the mainland at the start of the civil war. The Spannish railway system is intact so they may even not need to use the Ju 52s to supply the short based planes move as was LW doctrine as they can do it by train.

 

Not really. I'm sure the British and later the US as well would take very good care of them. The population would probably do better than they did historically under Franco.

 

The Spanish railways had different gauge,a lot of things had to be transported :spare parts,tonnes of fuel,ammunition,Flak,thousands of men,etc,etc...
And,as the railways did not stop at the airfields,but before them,a lot of trucks would be needed to transport everything to the airfields.

 

The old airport of Sevilla (aeródromo deTABLADA) was close the railwaystation, less than 6 km .

Tablada-Rail Station.

During WWII Spain exported tons of tungsten, before the war, agricultural exports overcame the problem of different gauge ...

The Jerez Airport is close to Gibraltar (Cadiz) ... It was builded in 1936 , there arrived the soldiers of Franco from the Spanish Morocco...The railway from Sevilla has an station there ...

 

Wow, that post detailing the plan for the British occupation of the Canaries is fascinating! So far there seems to be agreement that Spain would only be a liability to the Axis. it does seem there are some significant problems, but that didn't prevent Franco from offering to join the war. Here are some things that have not been considered:


1. Spain had the biggest navy of the neutral countries and though small it would have helped the Axis a lot to have its use

2. The British convoys around Africa would have been severely disrupted or at the very least have to take a much longer route. The German navy was very keen on Spain entering the war, it would have provided them with many benefits. Force H would not have been able to sail from Gibraltar and sink the Bismark or resupply Malta.

3. The political effects could have steamrollered - Yugoslavia stays pro-German, Portugal acceeds to various Axis requests, the British colonies in west Africa have to be reinforced, Italy becomes less cautious in the way it uses its navy, Vichy France even more pro-axis. With the Med closed, even Turkey might be a bit happier to talk to the Germans. If Malta could not be resupplied then North Africa was safe and Egypt/ the suez canal under threat. If Egypt could be taken then perhaps there were additional resources available in the Balkans, Middle East and West Africa that could help solve the problems of supplying Spain.

 

The problem is the KM and Italian navy were already limited in what they could do due to lack of fuel. Throw in more ships and more demand for fuel and the situation gets even worse.

The British would almost assurely sieze the Canaries shortly after Spain joined the war. That would provide a base that would help protect the African convoys to at least some extent. Gibralter would likely have fallen but then force H would likely have been stationed somewhere in the Atlantic, indeed it might have been avaialble to prevent Bismarck from actually making it into the Atlantic. Malta does become a bit more problematic of Gibralter falls.

If the Portugese fall in with the Axis then the Azores also fall to the British. This makes the Atlantic even more secure. Itally's "caution" with it's navy was to a large extent due to lack of fuel. Nothing we've seen here helps with that.

 

The Azores, and Madeira , Fernando Poo Islands (Spain) and later, the Canary Islands (may be after strong fights) ... The Spanish war ships (not the men) were contemptible in this context ... La Coruña would have give a good (and safe ) harbour for the U -Boats , but in 1940 they were so few ... It seems not worthwhile... And then ... there is the famine ... after our brutal civil war.

Thanks god it didn't happen!

 

The British planned to seize the Portuguese Islands should Spain enter the war.
With German pressure this would bring Portugal into the Axis too, not that they would be much help but they would give Germany the opportunity of looking at taking Mediera and the Cape Verde Islands.
Both could be reached by BF-110's from Axis airstrips along with bombers of course.
This could support a combined Axis Naval attack on the Islands and troop landings but would be very risky and likely costly.

 

The Germans thought the Canary Islands could be fortified and held should Spain enter the war.

 

I don't see how. They are too easy for the British to blockade and especially after Norway the KM hardly exists as a fighting force. Spain doesn't have much of a navy either and the Italian navy is going to be rather limited in the support it can provide to the Canaries.

 

A British blockade of the Canary Islands wouldn't be possible with Axis airpower in Morocco.

 

Morrocco? Bit of a stretch for combat air support patrols. Hope they have lots of money for the constant fuel useage they would need.

 

Indeed seeing as how they were having a hard time escorting raids on London. Also consider that early in the war the LW wasn't really a well trained antishipping force. How much of the LW are they going to want to send down to southern Morocco by the way?

 

They wanted a very large amount of both air and naval bases in the region as far down as Dhaka.

 

Which doesn't answer the question. Germany only had so many planes. These were divided up into groups to support specfic areas at any one point in time. You have added two areas which need at least some aircraft to support them that were not historically required. How many planes do you send there and from what regions? Note the LW support to the Canaries is especially tricky as these planes are essentially out of the picture combat wise unless the British or later allies attack. If they do however and there aren't enough of them then they are likely to suffer severe attrition while acomplishing nothing.

 

The amount of planes the Germans had available expanded vastly right through the war and the number of Luftflottes trebled.
Also if there is no war in the East in 1941 they will be thousands of extra planes available.
The Canary Islands main use in Hitler's eyes was as a naval base.
Thus aircraft would be used to protect it.
Projecting both naval and air power in the region would also put far greater pressure on Britains Atlantic life line.

 

I think a big problem here is that we have no real idea what the time line looks like. Perhaps you could lay one out?

Yes and no. There were definitly fluctuations and if times when there were less planes than others. In any case if we assume that the German Spanish negotiations conclude in say July of 1940 then if other historical events proceed as they did the LW is rather tied up for the next several months in the BoB isn't it?

The question is what aircraft and how many. Note that establishing major naval and air bases takes considerable transport capability. Any Axis shipping heading for the Canaries is going to be at risk especially if Gibralter is still a functioning British base. A quick look at the map also doesn't show much of the Canaries that are out of range of even cruiser guns. Airfields and their associated infrastructure can be rather vulnerable to such.