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Japan wins Midway


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#1 Ron

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Posted 16 October 2000 - 08:12 PM

What if the Japanese wern't caught with there pants down during the battle and maybe lost only one or even 2 carriers but even then they could have won the battle. The US really just got VERY lucky and the Japanese very unlucky.
What do you think possible outcomes of a Japanese invasion of Midway would have been and how it would effect future events in the pacific?
the possibilities are almost endless but it's fun to hypothesize!

#2 CoWBoY MoRoN

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Posted 17 October 2000 - 05:53 AM

No Guadalcanal campain.
New Guinea probably invaded, and a battle for Australia after that.

On the long run Japanese Navy was doomed (sub warfare was extremely effective against japanese economy) and the US industry could launch more flat tops in one year the japs during the whole war... But a loss at Midway would have had huge consequences.

#3 Yankee

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Posted 17 October 2000 - 08:53 PM

I think that there wasa real possibility of the Hawiian Island chain being attacked, the Japanese already hade Named the CO and officers and staff that was to command Hawaii.

#4 Ron

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Posted 17 October 2000 - 10:08 PM

I think it would have caused the US to start shipping more men and war materials to the Pacific than to Europe for their placement in the Pacific would surely have been precarious if Midway fell.
However i don't think Hawaii would have fallen.
Even if it did though i doubt the Japanese cauld ever afford to attack and invade the western shores of the US. The US abandoning Hawaii wouldn't have meant the end of the war to the Japanese. It would have meant just a longer war to the US.
US forces would have rebuilt themselves like they did historiclly...then invade Hawaii...there would be battles but Japan wouldn't be able to keep up with losses. Midway would be next and then hstory would repeat.
Overall i guess the loss of Midway would have really just elongated the war.

#5 CoWBoY MoRoN

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Posted 18 October 2000 - 12:11 AM

Hawaii was easy to defend, and heavilly fortified, it wasn't early war Wake. And it would have been impossible for Japan to ressuply Hawaii, it's just too easy for US subs to kill jap merchants en route for a base so far away from home.

#6 Ron

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Posted 18 October 2000 - 12:16 AM

Yeah i agree...it would have been near impossible for Japan to capture Hawaii. However, i think the threat of bombing from Midway would have forced the US to abandon it as a major repair facility...until Midway was neutralized or recaptured...which prob would not have been long because it would be VERY difficult for the Japanese to keep a heavy naval presence there. Being that there were no deep water ports nearby.

#7 Snefru

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Posted 29 November 2000 - 12:00 AM

The fall of Midway would have have been a very small feather in the Japanese navy's cap. The resupply of Midway would have been impossible and the US could mount day and night strikes against the small island. Midway is not a relevant point though. It is not a major point if Midway was taken, the point would be if the US carriers would have survived. The Hornet, Enterprise, and Yorktown were the only carriers in the Pacific with the exception of the Saratoga which had to return to port after taking a torpedo from a Japanese submarine (ironically enough the Saratoga had just been fitted with anti-torpedo blisters. If the carriers survive the war would only have been prolonged for another year. Had the carriers been lost the US would have to go into a bigtime zone defense and perhaps alter their Europe first stance.
The main concept though was that the war was over the moment it started. It was only a matter of time.

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#8 Otto

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Posted 29 November 2000 - 12:16 AM

Welcome aboard Snefru.

I agree, the war would inevitably fall in favour of the US. As well, Midway was only a sidebar to the main purpose of the attack, to lure out and destroy all the US carriers. Luckily for the americans, they had nearly complete access to Japanese codes. The Japanese plan was known from the start and the Japanese fleet was devastated. I read somehwere all the damage was done within a 5 minute span, can anyone confirm or deny this?

#9 Snefru

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Posted 29 November 2000 - 05:16 AM

With the exception of the carrier Hiryu, all of the fleet carriers were destroyed in a 5 to 10 minute span. The carriers Soryu, Kaga, and Akagi were destroyed after several dive bomber wings attacked. The Hiryu was destroyed the following day with the Yorktown.

#10 Yankee

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Posted 20 December 2000 - 12:17 AM

Ever seen the Mountain ranges in Hawaii? Ever seen Jurassic park? Thats Hawaii. It would have been a nightmare because the Marines would have been garrisoning the Island known the lay of the land and fought a geurilla war with the Japanese most likely. The support of the Locals would have been with the Americans (assuming the Japanese didnt kill them all which they probably would have)

#11 C.Evans

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Posted 06 January 2001 - 08:43 PM

If the Japanese had not been defeated at Midway, that would have been a decent base of operations for possibly invading Hawaii. If they invaded Hawaii, it would have been another slaughter. The hills and mountains and jungles, would have made it too difficult for the Japanese. We would have still come out on top.

#12 Killjoy

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Posted 10 January 2001 - 08:13 AM

I think the actual island of Midway was almost meaningless compard to the significance of the battle which bears its name...
The point isn't that the Japanese may or may not have occupied this remote hunk of rock, but that if they had beaten the naval forces we sent to oppose them it would have meant the destruction of practically the last credible force remaining to the US in the Pacific.
I haven't any idea what sort of naval assests remained to the US worldwide in 1942, but presuming more than a marginal Japanese victory here means by my reconing at least a temporary halt to US offensive ops in the Pacific.
What this means that Japan does next is a matter for another "What If?"

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#13 Ron

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Posted 11 January 2001 - 09:09 AM

The Japanese invasion was more to lure the US fleet into a decisive battle than occupy the base. The base itself would have been just a bonus. I am guessing that the Japanese hoped that if they could destroy the US's power in the pacific by either destroying her fleet and or occupying the Hawaiian islands that the US would settle for peace terms.
However idealy i would guess they were hoping an invasion of Hawaii would not be necessary because it would have been difficult to say the least!

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#14 C.Evans

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Posted 11 January 2001 - 07:23 PM

The best thing about the battle was that we won. All the Japanese managed to do, was to lose valuable warships.

#15 Otto

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Posted 11 January 2001 - 08:17 PM

The japanes eplan was doomed from the outset. They had to major airs in the same battle. They wanted to completely destroy the US fleet AND take Midway. If they had concentrated on either goal they might have succeeded.

"Even a lion user all his strength when trying to catch a rabbit" -Japanese proverb

Had the Japanese won we might expect a longer, drawn out war, but I don't expect the Japanese would have won. It's possible we may have seen a war last untill 48' had the A-bomb not come along, because it would have taken the US that long to rebuild here shattered fleet.

#16 Sgt. Schultz

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Posted 12 January 2001 - 01:57 AM

Your right Otto, and the japanese lost I think 3 aircraft carriers too. Near where I live is the aircraft carrier the USS Lexington, which fought in that battle.

#17 Ron

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Posted 12 January 2001 - 08:46 AM

Lexington? that must be an Essex class carrier? No carrier exists that fought at Midway.
and the Essex class didn't come into service till 43. Maybe Lexington fought at the battle of the Phillipean sea and Marianas turkey shoot? but not midway.



#18 C.Evans

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Posted 14 January 2001 - 12:55 AM

I don't know what class of carriers it belonged to, but, I know carriers like the Hornet, Yorktown and Wasp were there, and I think the Lady Lex was there too. I think that was one of the 1st timens that the Japanese reported sinking the ship. Thats one reason why its called also the Blue Ghost.

#19 Snefru

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Posted 14 January 2001 - 02:14 AM

Ok. Looking at the carriers the US had in the Pacific at the time up till midway we have the following:

Saratoga- drydock in California
Lexington- sunk at Coral Sea before Midway
Yorktown- damaged at Coral Sea sunk at Midway
Hornet- fought at Midway
Enterprise- fought at Midawy

The Japanese had:

Hiryu- Pearl Harbor; sunk at Midway
Soryu- Pearl Harbor; sunk at Midway
Shoho- sunk at Coral Sea
Shokaku- Pearl Harbor
Zuikaku- Pearl Harbor
Junyo- Midway diversion attack
Ryujo- Midway diversion attack
Akagi- Pearl Harbor; sunk at Midway
Kaga- Pearl Harbor; sunk at Midway

The Lexington, Yorktown, Enterprise, and Hornet were all renamed in a second class of carriers that also participated in the war (Essex Class)

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#20 Ron

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Posted 14 January 2001 - 08:49 AM

also the Wasp wasn't even in the pacific
It was in the Mediteranean
Like Snefru said the carriers directly involved were...
Hornet
Yorktown
Enterprise
against...
Akagi
kaga
Hiryu
Soryu
Lexington was already at the bottom from the Corral Sea battle and Saratoga was, as said, at California(they were of the same class)
All carriers the US had at Midway were of the same class.
Wasp was a class of it's own...no sisters (sorry Wasp)
<<<<<<<<<oh and in my above post(2 posts up)...i meant the Essex class lexington...there were 2. one was the lexington sunk at Coral Sea...and the Other lexington was an Essex class that survived the war.

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Admiral William "Bull" Halsey...

There are no great men, only great challenges that ordinary men are forced by circumstances to meet.

[This message has been edited by Ron (edited 14 January 2001).]

#21 C.Evans

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Posted 15 January 2001 - 07:44 PM

Thank you Snerfu, and Ron for correcting me. I'm not as well read on the Pacific war as I am on the ETO. I had forgotten that the Lex was sunk before Midway, but there was another Lexington that was built and sent to the Pacific.

Its been about 4-5 years since I read or researched much on the war in the Pacific. I do appreciate the correction folks-thanks.

#22 Sgt. Schultz

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Posted 16 January 2001 - 09:14 PM

Thats strange, I always thought that the lezington was lost at midway, or was that the Yorktown?

#23 Snefru

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Posted 17 January 2001 - 01:12 AM

The Lexington was sunk at the Battle of the Coral Sea. An interesting story about the Yorktown. When the Yorktown docked at Pearl the Pacific Command already knew about the invasion fleet heading to Midway. They needed the Yorktown in the battle. When Nimitz asked the yard master how long it would take to repair the yorktown the yard master stated that it would take 6 months. Nimitz stated that the yard master had three days. When the Yorktown left many shipyard workers were on board welding the flight deck and making other repairs!

#24 Ron

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Posted 17 January 2001 - 04:04 AM

i'll talk about the fates of the Hornet and Enterprise in the Pacific War thread!

#25 Yankee

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Posted 03 February 2001 - 07:23 AM

The Japanese would have won had they not wasted so many ships on the divisionary attack on the Auletions. Yamamoto knew it was a waste but let them doing it thinking it might be a valuable lesson for his suboridnates to learn.

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