What if appeasement didn't ended in 1938

To my knowledge, after Hitler broke the Munich pact, Britain's policy of appeasement headed by Chamberlain stopped. Does anyone think that if he had not annexed all of Czech territory(broken the Munich Agreement) that he could make war with Poland without it escalating into a war with Britain and France since appeasement would have still been practiced without any aggressive Polish guarantee offer from Britain? I think Poland would not have caved into German territorial demands, regardless of the pressure from France and Britain. Anyway, how would this alter the course of events? Think about it, no outbreak of a European war over Poland and less military preparedness for a major war by France and Britain than their would have been by the spring of 1940.

 

Hitler had pledged that the Sudentenland would be his last demand, so I think if he started making demands on another nation, it would be no less offensive than his overrunning of the remnant of Czechoslovakia in March 1939.

Historically German demands on Poland began almost immediately after the Munich conference and intensified in March 1939, at which point the British (with French support) gave their gurantee to Poland. There were almost another six months during which the allies could prepare both morally and materially for war. The situation would be about the same unless Hitler moved more quickly; that is to say, unless he was less aggressive in finishing off Czechoslovakia but more aggressive against Poland. The position of the USSR was also ambiguous until August 23.

Although Czechoslavakia had lost her border defenses and and much of her iron ore, she still had her field army and her very capable armaments industry. They could easily foresee their fate if Germany was allowed to conquer Poland. Historically a significant portion of the German army which attacked Poland used captured Czach arms including 469 tanks, which had heavier guns and armor than most of the available panzers. In our scenario these weapons would not only be unavailable but would likely enter the lists against Germany.

 

There also is the point (what most people don't know)that after the Coup of Prague(in 1939,not 1938),appeasement did not end :even in august 1939,Britain tried to bribe Hitler with money (the Wohlstadt talkings).

 

The western powers pushed the Polish guarantee to the next level(military response) after Hitler's defiance of the Munich agreement.
If Hitler did attack Poland in this scenario, I suspect France and Britain instead would have most likely just ramped up nation building just like they did after the invasion of Czech Territory. With Czechoslovakia weakened, Poland overrun, and Lithuania occupied, the west would probably still gear up for potential war, but it would more than likely be a wait and see type of thing, even less than the "Phony War. What do you think would happen next? Would Germany still have a chance to create an economic and non aggression pact with the Soviet Union, while still offering much better terms than France and Britain? As for the western front, given the strong need for vital metal and mineral resources that Germany needed to conduct its blitzkrieg in such a vast scale against the West, an economic trade agreement with Russia was a must.

 

Re-armament had started before the annexations and appeasement. Appeasement was actually Chamberlains attempt to buy time to allow Britain to re-arm after his reluctance to spend money on defence when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. By 1938 British defence spending was almost 48% of government spending, war was coming and all of Europe knew it.
Some tried to bury their heads, some thought neutrality would protect them, others were resigned to it but hoped it would not happen. Then of course you had those that were pushing and pushing hoping they would keep getting away with it but knowing that in reality war would come, just hoping later rather than sooner.

 

The western powers pushed the Polish guarantee to the next level(military response) after Hitler's defiance of the Munich agreement.
If Hitler did attack Poland in this scenario, I suspect France and Britain instead would have most likely just ramped up nation building just like they did after the invasion of Czech Territory. With Czechoslovakia weakened, Poland overrun, and Lithuania occupied, the west would probably still gear up for potential war, but it would more than likely be a wait and see type of thing, even less than the "Phony War. What do you think would happen next? Would Germany still have a chance to create an economic and non aggression pact with the Soviet Union, while still offering much better terms than France and Britain? As for the western front, given the strong need for vital metal and mineral resources that Germany needed to conduct its blitzkrieg in such a vast scale against the West, an economic trade agreement with Russia was a must.

If Hitler launched a surprise attack on Poland, perhaps following an ultimatum with a short deadline, and was able to conclude the campaign promptly, the western powers might not be able to react; but if he did as he did historically, with several months of demands prior to hostilities, I think Britain and France would side with Poland whether or not the Munich pact had been broken.

A threatened German occupation of all of Poland would be a grave concern for Russia. Stalin might well intervene if some demarcation had not been arranged in advance.

 

+1
It was very dangerous for Germany to attack Poland while leaving Czech army on its flank. So, complete occupation of all Czechoslovak territory was a prerequisite of starting war against Poland.

Regards,

 

True enough but Czechoslavakia was headed for its dissolution already. The Germans had not been the only ones who wanted out of the Czech controlled state, the Slovaks had the same desire. The German foreign office advised Hitler to dispose of the CSR by giving political support to the Slovak independance movement instead of open threats and an occupation. They felt once the Slovak half was gone, the rest would fall under German control by default.

 

Had Munich and the eventually the full annexation of Bohemia and Moravia not happen there likely could not have been a German attack of Poland, surely not as occurred in 1939. The Poles would not have been flanked. The Czech could exploit the German flanks as mentioned and the German army would not have had the strength it did as a result of gaining Czech weapons and armament industries.

The Slovaks may well have wanted their own state but that Bohemia and Moravia (Czech lands) would default to Germany as a result of Slovak independence is quite a stretch. There was nothing in Slovakia other than mountains and fields.