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WW3: China V US?


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#1 The_Historian

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Posted 26 November 2011 - 03:20 PM

 [/HR]Or just tabloid scaremongering?
"The Chinese navy is growing fast, acquiring aircraft-carriers and sophisticated missile systems. Beijing makes no secret of its determination to rule the oil-rich South China Sea, heedless of the claims of others such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

The Chinese foreign minister recently gave a speech in which he reminded the nations of South-East Asia that they are small, while China is very big.
Michael Auslin of the American Enterprise Institute described these remarks as the diplomatic equivalent of the town bully saying to the neighbours: ‘We really hope nothing happens to your nice new car.’
This year, China has refused stormbound U.S. Navy vessels admission to its ports, and in January chose the occasion of a visit from the U.S. defence secretary to show off its new, sophisticated J-20 stealth combat aircraft.
Michael Auslin, like many other Americans, is infuriated by the brutishness with which the dragon is now flexing its military muscles: ‘We have a China that is undermining the global system that allowed it to get rich and powerful, a China that now feels a sense of grievance every time it is called to account for its disruptive behaviour.’"
Will World War III be between the U.S. and China? | Mail Online

Regards,

Gordon

#2 Gebirgsjaeger

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Posted 26 November 2011 - 03:29 PM

If so it won´t be a funny game! And if there would be 2 possible scenarios: 1. a quick and heavy one or 2. A long lasting and devastating one. SO. lets hope this will stay under the rubric of " grey Theory" !
Regards, Ulrich

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#3 Fury 1991

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Posted 26 November 2011 - 10:30 PM

This is a exaggeration. China has one carrier that was sold to them by Russia. It was a rusting hulk of junk that had to be towed. The Chinese modernized it. China's might is being exaggerated.

#4 belasar

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Posted 26 November 2011 - 10:39 PM

Perhaps a little of both. China has historicly gone from isolationist to expansionist and back again. its not unrealistic to see the US drawn into a conflict between China and one of her neigbors.
Wars are rarely fought in black and white, but in infinite shades of grey

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#5 Fury 1991

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Posted 26 November 2011 - 10:46 PM

China does not have the logistics or technology to war with the U.S. at the moment.

#6 belasar

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 12:06 AM

Do not be so sure on that account. Much depends on what kind of war we are talking about. A China war against Vietnam/India/Korea would be a nightmare for us as a land war. China vs. Taiwan or Japan would also not be a cake walk. An attack against the Philipines would be the easiest to counter. The problem is other than the afflicted country who will allow us to base our forces. Do not think of the PLA in the same way as Iraqi army or any mideast opponant.
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Wars are rarely fought in black and white, but in infinite shades of grey

(Poppy is occasionaly correct, or so I hear)

#7 Gebirgsjaeger

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 10:16 AM

Correct belasar,

this opponent has a higher class as the others and if you´ll follow the chinese history of war, you will see that you have a very fanatic opponent to whom it isn´t important to loose some thousands of soldiers. And there is the same problem that our Adolf had with the Russians, they have to many of them to make it in a conventionally way.
Regards, Ulrich

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#8 urqh

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 10:30 AM

On the carrier issue I'll pause..Its a learning curve of technology...Perhaps one day they too will get into space...Oh they have.

Australia has accepted a marine ready brigade full time in Darwin I believe...US occupying new island base off Korea in the vein of Diego Garcia.

Massive rail link to Dacca and Chinese deep port being built in Indian ocean.

Chinese troops in uniform and aiding construction projects all over Africa.

Take a look to Zimbabwe and Uganda...yanks in Uganda now too...

Argentina and S.American China links abound.

Somalia pirate deployments by Chinese navy as good as any.

Africa is Chinese in all but name..no shots fired yet obviously.

Britain signs pact with Vietnam this week..Update from last years M.O.U.

America praises China for its outlook on trade and international involvement only this week.

China is not the little red book of Chinese ideology we knew before...China has learned from Russia and the cold war..They do not need a cold war. They have multiplied their international ambitions, ground, sea and space without some countries publics even noticing..Some others have particularly the same publics leaderships who are moving both military wise and treaty wise to draw the lines in the sand.
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#9 4th wilts

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 12:24 PM

I think a few more years will be needed to see just which direction the Chinese are headed.The building of carriers,S.S.B.N's etc,should let us know about future Chinese intentions.Maybe at the moment it's a game of 'Catch-up'with the U.S.?Cheers,Lee.
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#10 urqh

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 12:44 PM

Certainly is Wilts...The old Cento and Seato treaties are not around as such today, but even this last week, a treaty has been pushed linking India, Australia and USA to draw one of those lines...With Aussies now hosting a permanant US marine base in Darwin and also last week now reliinquishing its objection in treaty to exports of Uranium etc to India the writing is on the wall. Lines are being drawn.

The ex Soviet carrier is no match for US present forces and Chinese admit such...basically a cadet training ship and knowledge base for the future. However the Chinese ownership of ballistic anti ship missiles of recent stock upgrades...Will force other navies to look again at the range and plans of their future task forces involved in China area and Pacific. The anti ship missile range of these things is a threat to anyone wishing to go over Chinas lines in the sand.

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#11 The_Historian

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 02:03 PM

Someone made a fair point about China's willingness to accept high casualties being a counterbalance to their lack of combat experience. Does their defensive doctrine still centre around drawing an enemy deeper into the hinterland and overextending supply lines, and how relevant would that actually be these days?
Regards,

Gordon

#12 urqh

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Posted 27 November 2011 - 04:30 PM

Gordon I don't think they are into the older ways of thinking...Not since they got whacked by Vietnam over Cambodia days.

They are more an imperial and expeditionary force today. I do not think they are planning on fighting any wars on their own mainland anymore.

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#13 syscom3

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 12:53 AM

It looks so much like the rise of Imperial Germany at the end of the 19th century.

One thing I know for certain, if there is a shooting war with the PRC, the economic devastation on their economy will be immense. All the T-Bills they're holding will be worth zero and none of their products will clear port.
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#14 CAC

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 01:30 AM

At the moment they are simply expanding...they need muscle and might to fend off US bullying and to have a punch to back up any sabre rattling...The US's defence budget is STILL more than all the other countries put together...If Chiona want to be the big man of the region, its gotta look the part...as some smart person pointed out, China would be insane to want a war...not only is it seriously expensive, but they have so much MORE to gain keepijng countries like the US and Australia friends than enemies...they already know they will catch more flies with honey than vinegar...but the US is always at them...they NEED to sort the US out...create an equilibrium that both can live with...this is still the transition...time for cool heads people....
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#15 syscom3

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 03:55 AM

China wants all the countries in Asia to submit to them, just like they did several centuries ago.

#16 Poppy

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 04:15 AM

To what end Ss3? To spread communism? To gain land/ensure oil/food- what? I dunno. Just askin'.

#17 CAC

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 04:29 AM

China wants all the countries in Asia to submit to them, just like they did several centuries ago.


They want obedience and submission yes...like the US does (and gets most of the time)...they do NOT want an empire.
What we are seeing here is a rising Super Power...they arent hugley common, but there are enough examples in history to illustrate what China should be doing as a rising power...Russia did it...the US did it...even bloody Rome did it!
They wont be the same old China...they WILL be arrogant...they WILL be recalsatrant...they WILL throw their weight around...they WILL act like a petulant child...Just check out the last hundred years of history to see what to expect from a Super Power...Australia has been dealing with them, either Britain or the US since our inception...we're used to it...the US on the other hand has some learning to do...and some humble pie to eat...the future wont see it get it all its own way anymore. Communism was a mechanism to help the country...and it did...as it out grows this regime, it will slowly adopt another to suit it new needs. They are human beings, who want a good life, want to be proud of themsleves and prosper...nothing evil there...We here in Australia cant beat China, so we're working out ways to join them.
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#18 urqh

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Posted 28 November 2011 - 09:22 AM

Mineral wars...Its a quiet type of cold war...China has the market cornered legally at the moment...Its what Japan never succeeded in doing.

Chinas imports of minerals are astrinomical. Its treaties with the rest of the world to get them are many.

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#19 Poppy

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Posted 30 November 2011 - 05:37 PM

They found huge mineral deposits in Afghanistan.
U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan - NYTimes.com

#20 Fury 1991

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Posted 04 December 2011 - 10:54 PM

I would not want to war with these people.
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#21 urqh

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Posted 08 December 2011 - 11:51 AM

Prepare for war, Chinese navy is told as Pacific tensions grow | News

The Whitehouse responded that China has a right to defend itself.

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#22 The_Historian

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Posted 08 December 2011 - 02:00 PM

Sounds more like manufacturing an excuse to invade Taiwan. But that's just me...
Regards,

Gordon

#23 urqh

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Posted 08 December 2011 - 04:12 PM

Definately China being China Gordon.

Chinese Foreign Naval Bases | MaritimeSecurity.Asia

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#24 lwd

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Posted 19 December 2011 - 09:13 PM

Definately China being China Gordon.

Was that pun deliberate?

#25 luketdrifter

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 03:50 AM

Agreed that China is a country we don't want war with...but they also don't want war with us. The US economy is on well on the way to being owned by the Chinese...they don't want to upset that course. If war was to break out...exports stop...all around the world. Nobody is going to deal with China. We still field the most technologically advanced military machine in the history of man kind...learning curve or not, China cannot compete with that. Over a million soldiers they may have, but once they lose their holdings in the American economy, they lose their influence in the world. It would be a devastating war, most likely ending in a nuclear way...all the Chinese want is to get rich, just like the US wants to stay that way. Nobody is going to war.
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