Welcome to the WWII Forums! Log in or Sign up to interact with the community.

What If the Dutch Received Some of the German Ships Sunk at Scapa Flow

Discussion in 'Alternate History' started by firstnorth, Jul 12, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    blutoubtemium likes this.
  2. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    8,515
    Likes Received:
    1,176
    An interesting concept, but it has some issues.

    First lets remember that Holland was a fairly poor country to operate 4 Battleships and 8 Cruisers above the fleet they already had, which included no other Battleships and few other cruisers to begin with. Next these were coal-fired ships which would need to be refitted with oil-fired machinery. Expensive. Then they would need modernization to keep pace with the technology of the 20's-30's. More expensive. Last even if Holland could afford these costs (doubtfull) what do they have? 4 third class Battleships with 11-13 inch outdated guns and a gaggle of equally elderly cruisers. Sadly it would only result in even more gallent Dutch sailor's going down with their ships against a first class Japanese navy.

    It would be much like if Meade had a dozen Gatling Guns on Cemetary Ridge. It could have occured, but the outcome would not have been all that different.
     
  3. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    In 1919 the fleet was 'state of the art. '. the NEI was actually fairly prosperous - which is why the Japanese wanted it!
    I agree the whole fleet was 'de trop'- but the price on parts of it'would have been right'.
     
  4. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    8,515
    Likes Received:
    1,176
    Initialy getting it, yes, but Dreadnoughts were the CVN's of its time and costly to keep battleworthy. This does not consider the depression which would have stretched the Dutch budget to its limit anyway. Also such a force would require more escorts to screen them as well as a robust fleet train and repair assets to keep them on station indefinitely half way around the world. For her size Holland was wealthy, but not wealthy enough to be the 6th or 7th largest fleet in the world.

    Had Holland gotten these I expect that during the 20's and 30's they would have been steadily withdrawn from service for cost reasons and at best perhaps one BB and perhaps 2 or 3 of the CA's left in service at most by late 1941.

    I agree it would be an intriguing what if, but it has very limited real world prospect.

    Never hurts to dream though. :)
     
  5. TiredOldSoldier

    TiredOldSoldier Ace

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2008
    Messages:
    3,223
    Likes Received:
    452
    The Derfflinger proved just as good if not better than the "cats" and Kongos that made up the fast Japanese battlesquadron, started life as "cats".
    Having the the two survivors of the class in Dutch service could make Japanese plans a lot harder.
    The 15" Bayern would also not be out of place in a WW2 battleline but were probably too shortlegged for the PTO and too slow to be much of a threat.
    IMO the best money could buy would be the still uncomplete Mackensen, if they can be completed they would be way better than the Kongos. As a response the Japanese would probably complete at least a couple of Akagi, the USA some Lexington, Hood would get her sisters and so ... no Washington treaty, a big win for the Japanese empire.
     
  6. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    8,515
    Likes Received:
    1,176
    Imperial Germany had some excellent late war ships true, but if they had started doling out, them France and Italy would have gotten the cream of the crop first, before the Dutch. Sadly they would almost surely got the 'runts' of the litter.
     
    George Patton likes this.
  7. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Tony Blair probably scared them off...
    https://www.artizans.com/image/GMAC...rine-from-shaddy-british-navy-salesman-color/
    https://www.artizans.com/image/DEA361/canadian-military-submarines-beach-themselves/
     
  8. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Alt battle of the Jave Sea, 1942:\
    four mackensen Class DUTCH BB's hit that 20 mile japanese convoy with the 13 inch HE......out of long lance range!
    Houston & Java run flank guard..:trouble:
    If purchased, three of the four would have prob. been mothballed in peacetime.\
    Scapa flow was a strange 'internment, to say the least..
     
  9. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    an NEI fleet of the four most modern German battleships, eight cruisers, sixteen destroyers is roughly a third of the German fleet & would have been a powerfull incentive to 'stay away, Japan'
    Given that the budget funding had been voted in for new ships, this woudl have been a palatable deal. since indonesia has huge coal reserves, the NEI ships could have stayed' Hybrid fueled.'

    Do any of our Netherlands members have an insight?
     
  10. George Patton

    George Patton Canadian Refugee

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,223
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    In think belaser's message explains this well: Holland would not have gotten the "cream of the crop". Britain and France would have taken the best of the surrendered German fleet, likely followed by the Americans. Holland would have been towards the end of the list -- she would have been lucky to get one capital ship, much less 4 of the most modern ones.

    Would giving Holland the best of the German fleet have served as a strong deterrent to the Japanese? Likely, assuming that the Dutch decided to modernize them in the 1920s/1930s and keep them in service. The issue is that Holland would not have received the ships at all. Just for the sake of argument, here is my opinion on what would happen if they got the ships:
    -The Dutch would have kept them in Europe as a defense against the German invasion in 1940. They *might* have been divided between the Pacific and Atlantic, but they would not have been concentrated in the Pacific since the German threat was more imminent and viewed more seriously.
    -After Holland's defeat (if the ships were not sunk), they would have went to Britain (like the Polish fleet did). The fleet *may* have gone to Dutch colonies in the Pacific, but given the proximity of Britain, the close Dutch-British close alliance and lack of supplies for such a long journey, going to Britain was more likely.
    -From here, I don't know where they would be sent. Given their age, I feel that they would have been assigned as convoy escorts. I don't think these ships would have made it to the Pacific if they were needed in Europe.
     
  11. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    8,515
    Likes Received:
    1,176
    One of the hazard's of postulating a what-if is the trap of assuming that only one thing changes and that change has no ripple effects other than those that support a particular point of view.

    Let's take this a face value. Holland gets the 4 BB's and 8 CA's. They give them some level of modernization. How does Japan React? They certainly don't cower in fear. They either redeploy their Much Better Battleship's or redeploy air assets to replicate the PoW/Repulse answer or they look for a chance to use their excellent Long Lance torpedo's against relatively slow and sluggish Dutch capitol ships like Suragao Strait. Possibly all of the above. Without balance air cover and an effective command structure they are still at a disadvantage to the IJN.

    Japan was too clever and proffesional to allow a group of elderly WW I retreads to upset their plans too much.

     
  12. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    relax, people!
    What is being overlooked here is that the NetherlandsBattleships are the same age as Hood & Repulse, without the extensive wearby 1941, as they are archipelago defense ships.
    First, Britain would prefer to see the Dutch trade food toGermany for fleet, as they are then with a common interest ally, & Germanyis not ‘hell bent on revenge’. Shipping the ships to Italy or France is NOT inBritain’s interests.
    Secondly- this places a completely new fleet in alliance withthe Americans & British, in easy range of Singapore, defending the ‘softunderbelly’. Six battleships instead of two, or four more heavy battlecruisers.
    At the battle of the Java sea, the light forces almost scored an upset against sloppy Japanese convoys. Heavy forces would have punched through.
    In 1914, the Netherlands knew the Japanese were eventually coming- that is why they voted the fleet budget.
    :trouble:’e3e now, you Dutchies take them ships or John Bull ain’tcoming to your rescue when the Nippers sight Sumatra’, sez John Bull….:trouble:
     
  13. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
  14. George Patton

    George Patton Canadian Refugee

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,223
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    I'm relaxed, I think everyone else is as well. We're just discussing a scenario you brought up -- no need to get defensive.

    A few things: The British already had control of the fleet as per the Versailles Treaty -- it was told to surrender to the "allied fleet" in Scotland, which was primarily comprised of the RN. As of the moment they sailed into Scapa Flow, Germany had no real control over it. Why would they need the Dutch to "trade" for it with Germany? Whether Britain wanted this or not was another issue -- I think Britain would have preferred a more well-rounded trading system (ie: Germany trades equally with Britain, France, etc for food) rather than rely on one country (Holland) that would reap the benefits and keep them to themselves. Lloyd George wanted Germany to become a peaceful member of the European community -- the free market was a very good way to do this, not a barter system ("fleet for food") that would essential make Germany reliant upon the Dutch.

    The British were very protective of their position as the leading naval power. Giving Holland the majority of the ships would have made England a weaker power as they would now have a major naval force directly off their shores (even though it was allied). As for ships going to Italy or France, how is this not in Britain's interests? Yes, the British were very protective of their position as the world naval leader, but to blatantly deny the French a share would be a diplomatic disaster. Remember that just a few decades before the British and French were sworn enemies. As for the other allied powers, Britain would also have wanted to remain allies with them, and this would entail not snubbing them by hoarding the German fleet. Had the fleet not been scuttled, I feel the British would have either sunk it for target practice (which would be a diplomatic disaster) or divvy the ships up amongst the allies, giving each a couple ships so that the balance of power would not be altered. Giving all the ships to one country (regardless of size and alliance) would have altered the balance of power, which the British would not have tolerated.

    I'm not saying that a powerful Dutch fleet would have been a pushover, I'm just saying that in my opinion there is no way that a major Dutch force could have remained in the Pacific waiting to confront the Japanese. The German threat was imminent as of September 1939, the Japanese threat was not -- so why would you leave the majority of your fleet waiting to confront the latter while your country was in danger of being overrun? On the topic of Singapore, I don't think the British viewed it as being vulnerable. In 1942, even as the Japanese were laying siege to it, the British scoffed at the idea that it could be overrun. In short, the British would have very little to gain to by giving the Dutch the fleet. The RN was perfectly capable of operating the ships themselves, so I don't think the need to have more ships to fight alongside it (via an ally) would have been a big concern.

    As a side note, why are you posting links to various newspaper editorials? They don't even deal with Scapa Flow or Dutch Fleet...
     
  15. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    Grimm Reaper
    August 4th, 2006, 04:36 PM
    From Avalanche Press...

    One of the defining words of Twentieth Century power politics was “autarky” — a nation’s total economic independence. To be truly powerful, a nation had to control not only its own industries, but the raw materials to feed them and the markets in which to sell their products. By the late 1930s, that brought a number of the old empires that controlled such resources onto a collision course with the revisionist powers (Germany, Italy, Japan) that wanted them.

    In 1938, the Netherlands authorized a large re-armament program to defend its interests, especially in the East Indies (the modern Indonesia). Japanese industry needed the oil and other raw materials from the islands, and the aggressive words coming out of Tokyo made it clear that a buy-and-sell relationship was not going to be enough.



    Light cruiser Java. More than this old veteran would be needed to stop the Imperial Japanese Navy.
    In the 1890s and early 1900s, the Dutch navy had patrolled the East Indies with a flotilla of armored ships, sort of a cross between a slow armored cruiser and a long-range coast-defense ship. These had heavy guns to deter enemy cruisers, but their low speed made them clearly defensive and no threat to other European powers or the Japanese. But the experience of the First World War showed them to be no match for modern cruisers, and so during the war years the Dutch laid down three large, modern light cruisers for the East Indies station. One of the three was cancelled and later replaced by the more modern but ultimately less capable De Ruyter.
    Three cruisers remained the Dutch standard, but in the mid-1930s the navy’s leaders became convinced these needed to be the sort of “super cruisers” discussed in many naval journals of the time. Naval limitations treaties kept cruisers at 10,000 tons displacement and a main armament of 8-inch and later 6-inch guns.

    The Dutch had not been asked to sign the treaties, and so had no legal barrier to creating a “Treaty Cruiser Killer.” In the event of war with Japan, the Dutch did not expect to meet the main Japanese battle fleet — that would be tied down by either direct confrontation with the Americans and British, or at least the threat of such a clash. A Japanese invasion of the East Indies would be spearheaded, they believed, by several squadrons of the Imperial Navy’s “Type A” cruisers.

    The Japanese had laid down a dozen cruisers with 8-inch guns, and secretly converted six more “light cruisers” to carry the heavier guns. These squadrons rarely exercised with the battle fleet, and Dutch naval intelligence believed these would be their main opponents in wartime. The Dutch also noted that the big seaplane carriers usually worked with the cruiser squadrons and not the full-deck carriers. Therefore, Dutch surface ships would not be exposed to overwhelming carrier-based air attack.


    Dutch inspiration. Scharnhorst in 1939.
    Against even two or three of the Japanese heavy cruisers, the three Dutch light cruisers on the East Indies station (two of them usually on patrol and one undergoing refit at home) would have no chance. But the threat of a Cruiser Killer lurking among the archipelago would force the Japanese to hold off an actual invasion until it was eliminated. The greater range of the Cruiser Killer’s guns would allow her to sink the Japanese ships from well outside a range at which the cruisers could hurt the bigger ship. Three of these big cruisers could paralyze Japanese invasion plans.

    The 1938 plan therefore centered on a trio of battle cruisers, with guns heavy enough to smash a treaty cruiser and enough speed to engage it. There would also be two more light cruisers with six-inch guns, to replace the aging Java and Sumatra, two flotilla leaders to give the Dutch destroyers some gunfire support against the more heavily-armed Japanese “special type” destroyers, as well as destroyers, submarines and assorted light craft.

    A 40,000-ton floating dock for the Soerabaya naval yard, plus new shore batteries and airfield improvements for Soerabaya, indicated another policy shift. Refits would in the future take place in the East Indies, meaning that all three units would be available for operations in times of crisis.

    The Netherlands possessed a highly competent shipbuilding industry, but the navy had lost confidence in native engineers with the poorly-designed De Ruyter. The Dutch firm Ingenieurskantoor voor Scheepsbouw (I.v.S), a front for the German shipyards AG Vulkan and Krupp-Germaniawerft, provided a design based on the German Scharnhorst class, which were then fitting out in German yards.

    Scharnhorst had been designed to political, not military, specifications and never truly met German needs. The main armament of nine 283mm (11.1-inch) guns had been fitted to appease British fears, and the Germans hoped to replace them with six 380mm (15-inch) guns as soon as possible. The ships were not fitted for commerce raiding, with steam turbines rather than long-range diesels like the “pocket battleships,” yet lacked the firepower to challenge enemy battleships. While they certainly could shoot up British treaty cruisers, this was not a mission the Germans really needed to fill.


    Gneisenau’s heavy guns.
    But the basic premise did meet Dutch requirements. The Dutch battlecruiser that emerged from the IvS drawing boards looked very much like the German ships, with some key improvements. The Dutch ships would have been faster (34 knots vs. 32 for Scharnhorst) and had more range but slightly thinner armor (but proof against 8-inch shellfire). Outwardly they would look very much like Scharnhorst, but with two funnels rather than the German ship’s one.

    They also would have had substantially better anti-aircraft armament. Scharnhorst carried a dozen 150mm (5.9-inch) guns as secondary armament and fourteen 105mm (4.1-inch) anti-aircraft guns because Germany lacked a medium-caliber dual-purpose weapon. The Dutch gave their Cruiser Killer a dozen very effective 120mm (4.7-inch) dual-purpose weapons in six dual mounts, plus 16 40mm automatic weapons, all tied together by a sophisticated fire-control system whose like would not be seen until after World War II.

    What the Dutch lacked was a scheme for underwater protection; the Germans refused to share the details of Scharnhorst’s armor below the water line. With no experience in building heavy warships, having skipped the dreadnought age, the Dutch cast about helplessly for assistance, finally scoring a technical visit to Italy’s Ansaldo yards. The Italians refused the plans of the Pugliese system used in Vittorio Veneto or a tour of the ship, but did allow the Dutch to interview a number of engineers familiar with the scheme. They were allowed to give the Dutch any verbal information they requested, but no technical drawings.

    After much delay caused by the hunt for underwater protection, the Dutch engineers finally sketched a modified Pugliese scheme for the battle cruisers. Contracts had been let to four yards for the ships, although only three units had been authorized, hinting that the navy hoped to fund an extra ship. But construction had not begun when the Germans invaded the Netherlands and ended the project.

    Dutch naval intelligence estimates were remarkably prescient: the did indeed face Japan’s cruiser squadrons, but supported by the four rebuilt battle cruisers of the Kongo class. These would have been formidable opponents for the Dutch Cruiser Killers. The Dutch, like all other foreign navies, also were not aware of the Japanese 24-inch oxygen-fueled “Long Lance” torpedo. Though a weapon whose effectiveness has been greatly overrated by later amateur writers, it did give the Japanese cruisers a means of striking at Dutch battle cruisers well before the Dutch would have realized the danger. But had the Cruiser Killers been crewed and handled in the same manner as the Dutch cruisers and destroyers that faced the Japanese in 1942, these would have been deadly opponents.

    So what do you think might have happened had this building program been completed before Hitler conquered Holland in 1940?
    [HR][/HR]MrP
     
  16. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    Prev. post not my authorship. all Kongo Class battlecruisers

    Kong
    built 1911-1915.
    Ideally, if the Netherlands had had the German battleships or battlecruisers, plus aircraft carrier conversions of two German hulls on the slipyards
    four of The five remaining battlecruisers—Von der Tann, Moltke, Seydlitz, Derfflinger, and Hindenburg
    Mackensen class battlecruiser - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Japan would have 'stopped' at Cochin China.
    the Weimar republic would have had food & raw materials, in exchange,saving 900,00 children, & survived.
    But that is history...
     
  17. TiredOldSoldier

    TiredOldSoldier Ace

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2008
    Messages:
    3,223
    Likes Received:
    452
    Some remarks.

    A heavy fleet will do nothing to protect the Netherlands against a land German attack, and they can rely on the RN or the Royale to protect their coast, hard to immagine a scenario with Germany attacking the Dutch with both France and Britain neutral the ships, if acquired, will be in NEI.

    There were no "heavy" cruisers in the WW1 German fleet, or for that in any navy in 1918, the WW2 "heavy cruiser" type came out of the Washington treaty. There were probably some surving armoured cruisers but the best ones (Sharnhorst, Geisenau, Blucher) as well as Roon had been lost so the survivors were no prize. The more modern light cruisers are superior to Japanese 5.5" ships but no match even for Kako (the smallest of the 8" ones).

    The NEI has lots of oil, that was the reason the Japanese wanted it, so coal burners make little sense.

    The RN was not really interested in keeping the ships, in 1919 it had more BBs than it could crew or upgrade, though the simpler WW1 designs were probably less difficult to mantain the German ships were still "metric" not "imperial" and likely to be more costly to upkeep than British ones.
    The USA and Japan were engaged in a naval race and could have wanted them, but giving them to either was not in the British best interests, the RN sill had advantage in BB hulls for a while and was not likely to give it up. Their problem was most were pre war ones as during the war they had concentrated on building escorts, while the USA and Japan built BBs and France and Italy stopped construction in favour of more urgently needed land war production. So all they would give away is some of the run out 11" ships that were really good only for target practice (a bit like they did after WW2 with the USSR that got worthless Cesare instead of the Littorio it was asking for. This could leave the best ones (Koenig, Bayern and Derfflinger classes) on the market for "minor" powers, and of course nothing coud prevent a private contract for the Mackensen, I think ownership was still with the shipbuilders so the could not be legally taken.
     
  18. firstnorth

    firstnorth Dishonorably Discharged

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    4
    Sorry- meant battlecruiser instead of heavy cruiser . Using coal saves the cost of boiler conversion to oil.
     
  19. George Patton

    George Patton Canadian Refugee

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,223
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    I don't know what the Dutch intention was (maybe a deterrent, or maybe they viewed the Kreigsmarine threat as being serious enough?), but the Netherlands did indeed recall several ships from the Pacific in early 1940. On May 7th, the 3rd NEI Squadron (De Ruyter, Zeeland and 4 destroyers) was recalled to Europe and given orders to patrol the coast. It should be noted that the 3rd Squadron was ordered to turn back on May 11th as the invasion was already underway, but the point is that the Dutch did initially order them to return to Europe. As for why they received orders to turn back, the Navy likely realized the country was going to be overrun and the ships either couldn't get there in time or they would serve no point.

    Additionally, two large cruisers (Soerabaja and Sumatra) were already on patrol in the same area. Had they all assembled off the coast, this would have been a good-sized piece of the Dutch fleet.

    So yes, I agree with you that a fleet could do nothing against a ground invasion, but the Dutch weren't thinking this way for whatever reason in the spring of 1940.
     
  20. George Patton

    George Patton Canadian Refugee

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,223
    Likes Received:
    1,171
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    Are you referring to the cost of converting the ships from coal to oil powered? Of course this would save costs. However, to my knowledge, there was no major coal deposits being mined in the NEI. This would be a major logistics nightmare for the Dutch fleet, as coal would have to be brought in from other areas in large volumes. Remember, a coal ship would burn through several tons per hour at high speed. On the other hand (as TiredOldSoldier said) there was oil in the NEI. For a fleet permanently stationed in the Pacific, oil-burning ships would have been essential.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page