The original case yellow devised by the old guard generals in the OKH predicted similar route as in the WWI through the Low Countries into the northern France.Using one instead of two arcs later conceived.Fortunately for the Germans an unlikely event happened when Hellmuth Reinberger a major in fallschirmjager, lost his way in bad weather and landed in Holland.On him he had complete and approved plans for case yellow that were to be delivered to 2. Luftflotte Headquarters..the plans quickly found the way to the French.Capture of the plans convinced stupid French commanders that the attack was going to unfold exactly as they predicted,while the Germans of course immediately started to change their compromised planes.In the second planning a simple and brilliant plan devised by junior officer (by General Staff standards anyway) von Manstein was adopted.This plan decided the battle for France before it even begin..
But what if the weather was better that fatal day or good Hellmuth was a better pilot,anyhow if the plans reached 2. Luftflotte instead of the French?
The Germans would then swarm across the Low Countries on a relatively narrow front between the Ardennes and the see,just like the Allies expected,head on into the French First Army Group,the cream of their army+BEF.The real events showed that first army group did pretty good in front of German army group B,practically bringing their advance to a halt until Germans turned their right flank at Sedan and Dinant when they were ordered to retreat.But the original plan did not predict attack through the Ardennes and across the Meuse.Therefore they would be entangled in a frontal fight with tightly packed French units that were superior in number of tanks and artillery.
In such situation Germans would still have these advantages:
-Army Group A would join the fray on the section of the front where in reality only Army Group B operated.Also A.G. A was the cream of the Wermacht,with most of the elite panzer formations,while A.G. B was pretty light in armour compered to Group A.
-Germans had more advanced battle doctrines,concentrating their firepower on narrow sections of the front and exploiting created gaps in contrast with outdated French military thinking of equal dispersion of forces across the entire front and holding a static defensive line while relinquishing the initiative to the enemy
-Germans had better quality and quantity in certain key arms branches,especially airplanes(fighters and tactical bombers) and specialised weapons like anti-tank and anti-aircraft guns
-Better tactics in armor,infantry or air battles
-Professionalism of Wermacht was something French could only dream about
-And last but probably decisive, air superiority and excellent ground support air arm(in my opinion key to the blitzkrieg).
In this case it would take much longer than some 2 weeks to take out French first army group,as was the case in fact,and it would be a bloody job probably claiming several hundred of thousands German casualties and vast quantities of equipment.During this time more French troops would raise behind the Somme,more colonial and British reinforcements would arrive and bloody German noses even more.Eventually Allies would loose almost for sure.
Now,what could the Allies do to perhaps even the odds somewhat,and I'll try to keep it within realistic parameters which could easily occur?If they achieved only three 'enhancements', things would look rather different.
-If French weren't satisfied,as they were,that over 60 of their divisions are looking from safety of impenetrable Maginot line to just 19 of Leeb's Heers Gruppe C,fifty or do French divisions could be redeployed to the critical,'live',sectors of the front.
-In accordance with their backward doctrines French High Command dispersed all of armored and mobile strategic reserves evenly across the front prior to the battle leaving only five infantry and one light armored division as a strategic reserve in whole northern France!French had 11 armored divisions,with another few being formed,plus a number of motorized formations.If at least half or two thirds of these units were held back to seal the cracks in the already strong line by determined counter attacks,Germans would have a though job.
-If British had been committed fully in air war over France(they contributed with just 100 engines) as they were fighting the battle for Britain,together they just might deny the Germans their complete air superiority,and deprive them of their greatest luxury..When things get rough(resistance get determined or counter attack hits the flanks) ,stukas fly in and problem is solved..
With these eventualities- no proper air superiority everywhere,going head on into massed Allied armies,German advance would be very slow and costly.And when a crack appears and elements of panzer division break through,they are met by superior numbers of counter attacking French tanks,with heavy Char B in lead(for which Germans had no answer except 88 mm flak,or to take them from behind). In this case Germans would bleed,with enormous casualties in man and equipment.Destroying First army group would probably take many months,giving even more time to Allies to mobilize their defensive potentials.Perhaps,Germans would still be victorious(only a super computer simulation could tell
),but that shock effect that crashed French will to resist and pushed their leaders on colaboration path ,just wouldn't be.So even after defeat,perhaps French would withdrew to their colonies,with the army and fleet,strongly shifting the balance of power in Mediterranean,Atlantic and North Africa to Allied side and forcing already exhausted Wermacht to station massive reserves to guard the southern flank of 'Festung Europa'.Who knows how the war would then look..
Thanks for your attention
What if Germans executed original plan for case yellow?
