I think that by the end of '42 we would've been at war with Germany anyway due to the sinking of US merchant ships bound for Britain, unless our total effort was focused on the defeat of Japan, and no more lend-lease goods were sent across the Atlantic.
Admittedly, the war in Europe might have been considerably lengthened, if not 'lost' entirely without US aid.
For example:
Without lend-lease to Russia, she may have sought an armistice with Germany if only to gain time to re-arm for an eventual counterstroke.
Without US aid, Britain would almost certainly have fallen due to the U-boat 'blockade' and raids on her commerce shipping on the open seas.
Now it's Spring 1943, and the Greater German Reich encompases the greatest territorial conquests Germany made during the war, with no powerful foes left in the ETO (The Russians are an uncertainty at best, but now face a properly entrenched and replenished Wermacht)
Presumably, Japan is weakening if not on the ropes due to the US concentrating on them alone.... We have the economy geared up for war, but do we have the will to invade Europe WITHOUT provocation?
Unless a 'Lusitania-like' incident occurs, perhaps not...
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Killjoy
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