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What If? Alternate History: Speculate about WWII battles that never were. Could the Axis have won? What if Hitler had the bomb?

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Old August 19th, 2002, 07:21 PM
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Spain and Turkey would have made an enormous difference. Not because of the weapons or men they could provide. Simply because of the important strategic positions and places.
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Old August 20th, 2002, 03:51 AM
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I agree, Gibraltar and the Caucasus alone would probably be worth it.
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Old August 30th, 2002, 03:14 AM
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Some sites on Franco and Germany for those interested:

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/ww...n/spmenu.htm#1

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Old August 30th, 2002, 03:38 AM
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[ 29 August 2002, 09:39 PM: Message edited by: C.Evans ]
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Old August 31st, 2002, 05:21 AM
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Nice site, Kai! Keep sharing! Thanks!
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Old August 31st, 2002, 05:21 AM
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Nice site, Kai!
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"War is less costly than servitude, the choice is always between Verdun and Dachau." - Jean Dutourd, French veteran of both world wars

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Old September 7th, 2002, 12:24 PM
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Assume Spain joins the Axis in augus 1940 impressed by the Germans.

In september they attack Gibraltar, which surrenders in december. Then Spanish troops are being put ashore in Marocco and Algerie. Maybe even one Division send to help Rommel to defeat the Allies in Egypt.

in 1941 Rommel reaches (with help of Spain) Suez. Turkey joins the Axis and they attack (at the same time of Operation Barbarossa) the south Caucasus.

Maybe these two countries hadn't the best troops or the best equipment. But neither had the French and the Russians in the Caucasus.
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Old September 7th, 2002, 07:21 PM
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Albert has good points here. I would agree with a few of them.
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Old September 7th, 2002, 08:50 PM
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I'd agree with most of 'em!
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Old September 7th, 2002, 09:46 PM
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Except conquesting Egypt by 1941. Even with Spanish and Italian support, you must remember that the DAK of 1941 was too weak to give the British a considerable defeat as it did in 1942.
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Old September 8th, 2002, 04:59 AM
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Originally posted by Friedrich
Quote:
Except conquesting Egypt by 1941. Even with Spanish and Italian support, you must remember that the DAK of 1941 was too weak to give the British a considerable defeat as it did in 1942.
True, but with Gibraltar shut down, supplying the Brits in North Africa would have been much harder. Perhaps a combined force could have done the job...although 1942 is still probably a safer bet.
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Old September 14th, 2002, 07:00 PM
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Quite right, das Reich!
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Old September 15th, 2002, 01:18 AM
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DasReich

Very little of the WDF's supplies went past Gibraltar. Fuel came directly from the Middle East and stuff from the UK usually went round the Horn. The key difference is that the Italian Navy could start to operate outside the Med and German Submarines can easily get in and out. the British would probably have to occupy the Azores and Canarias to provide air cover against this threat.

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Old September 15th, 2002, 01:48 AM
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True, Jumbo.

Actually. a friend of mine who lives in the Canarias told me that U-boats used to resupply with food and water in the Canarias and Azores. Even Dönitz once thought of a submarine invasion of the Isles, but it would have deteriorated the relations with Spain. However, the U-boats stilled using them as piers all throughout the war.
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Old October 3rd, 2002, 04:11 AM
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Spain is a very important strategic position. But I think it would've had as much of an impact on the war as Allied France did. [img]tongue.gif[/img]
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Old October 6th, 2002, 11:00 PM
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From Skorzeny´s book " My commando operations ":

" To return to Operation Felix, it didn´t appear that it would take any great effort on the part of Admiral Canaris to convince General Franco to allow German troops to march through Spain to get at Gibraltar. The Chief of the Abwehr certainly knew the Caudillo;it was even said that they used the familiar "du" form of address. Canaris made an inordinate number of trips to Spain, two alone in the summer of 1940, in July and August, and it was on the latter occasion that the Admiral discussed the matter of Gibraltar with Franco.

I cannot reveal the military sources that informed me that Canaris convinced the Cuadillo to demand the following of Hitler in return, demands which definitely had to be rejected.Wheat, fuel, weapons and ammunition in enormous quantities, and above all the annexation into the Spanish colonial region of all French Morocoo and the Department of Oran in Algeria.

This was impossible.Why should Hitler give away something that he didn´t possess and that he had never demanded from France? He was still of opinion that a policy of honest co-operation and friendly relations with France was very desirable.This friendly policy was outlined in Oct 1940 in Montoire during talks with Marshall Petain.

Following Canaris´visit to Spain, the Reich´s ambassador in Madrid, Eberhardt von Stohrer, related the following in a report to the Wilhelmstrasse on Aug 8, 1940:

"(Even if the German Government accedes to all of Franco´s demands ) the date for the beginning of preparations and the action ( Gibraltar ) itself must be adjusted to correspond to the expected developments in England ( succesful German landing in England ), so that we avoid a premature entry into the war by Spain, which would mean an unbearable length of conflict for Spain and the possible creation of a source of danger for us."

--------

Skorzeny indeed gives a picture that Canaris did not want Spain in the war. As well he seems to have had the keys to persuade Franco to join the war.
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Old October 6th, 2002, 11:13 PM
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From other part of the Skorzeny book:

" Hauptmann Wimmel was leading my frogmen from 1943, who moved over from the Brandenburg to Friedenthal. He was an officer of quite special bravery and cool-headedness.In 1940-41 he commanded a special detachment which operated in the Gibraltar area. He sank numerous British ships and with the help of Spanish workers succeeded in smuggling a powerful time bomb into the rock´s tunnels, where there was a munitions dump. They hid the bomb in a metal hull, which looked exactly like an English artillery shell. The detonation of this bomb would have set off an explosion by thousands of large shells and would have inflicted serious damage on the rock. Wimmel never learned exactly why it did not go off. One thing is certain: one of the men who helped transport the bomb was "talkative". Had they paid him off or forced him to talk? Probably.There were great interests at work.

The attempt was made on Dec 5, 1940 and obviously could not be repeated. "

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Old October 7th, 2002, 06:53 PM
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I think the Germans would have been better off in the short term invading Spain and overthrowing Franco. The Spanish army would have been beaten as easily as the Yugoslavs were, but would have made great partisan fighters afterwards. If Italy could be persuaded to garrison Spain instead of Germany then it might have worked out - assuming the Italians took no part in the invasion.

Germany and Italy would have taken the whole Mediterranean. Whether they could have held on to it afterwards is another matter.
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Old October 8th, 2002, 09:50 AM
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Why VonManstein 39 would Germany and Italy invade Spain. In this useless attack a lot of troops would have been killed.

Then there would be another territory where a lot of guerillia would happen.
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Old October 8th, 2002, 11:49 AM
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The only way to reach Gibraltar is through Spain - attacking it from the sea in an amphibious operation would be suicidal. So if Franco won't allow German troops to pass through Spain, an invasion is the only alternative other than abandoning Gibraltar altogether. Taking Gibraltar is the only way to cut off the supply route to Malta, allow German warships into the Mediterranean while denying access to the Royal Navy, and make all the British convoys go round the long way via Cape Horn. Neutralising Malta as an air and naval base, preferably by occupying it, is the only way for the Axis to have any chance of wresting control of the entire Mediterranean Sea from the British. Doing that secures Axis supply in North Africa, which leads to the conquest of Egypt and control of the Suez Canal. Follow that up with Axis victories in the Middle East, Persia, and the Far East and you cause the collapse of the British Empire. Destroy the Empire and Britain will be isolated, demoralised, and more likely to come to terms.

If all this could be achieved (as it could have been if Germany had put off the invasion of Russia until 1942), then the cost of invading Spain would have been worthwhile for Germany. If the British managed to hold Malta and the Suez Canal anyway, then Spain would have been just a liability.
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Old October 8th, 2002, 01:32 PM
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That was probably a difficult problem-by getting Gibraltar the allied supplies would not have reached Egypt, Malta etc, and as well Supplies to Rommel would have reached him 90% at least.

I am sure the Germans must have had long discussions over attacking Spain.

It was estimated that some 35% ( sorry dont´have the source here )of the tanks, vehicles etc would have reached Montgomery by the time he would have started attack of El Alamein, if the ships went round Africa. Or rather, he would not have started it as he didn´t have overwhelming number of forces.
The war in Africa would have at least lasted longer.
And of course, no US invasion of nothern Africa!
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Old October 8th, 2002, 02:49 PM
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Where did you get that 35% estimate?

The famous 'Med convoys from Gibraltar were usually bound for Malta, not Alex. Axis air power was too strong to risk running past Sicily, even Pedestal struggled with 3 carriers, and that was only going halfway.

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Old October 8th, 2002, 06:33 PM
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Jumbo,

Actually the 35% I got from Skorzeny´s book:

" If we occupied Gibraltar, the rock, in June 1940, we would have barred the entrance to the Mediterranean. The war would have taken a quite different course.The English would have had to sail around Africa, and I believe it is not an exaggeration to claim that Field Marschalls Alexander and Montgomery would only have received about thirty percent of troops and material which in fact arrived directly via Gibraltar."

I guess you can read this two ways: of the material going through Gibraltar 30%. Or all the material that went to them 30% if Gibraltar was in the German hands. Eh?

How do you read it, Jumbo?
--------

As well I found this:

"It was the Allied success in the Mediterranean that enabled them to land an enormous amphibious force in the Torch landings and equip the Eighth Army to defeat the Afrika Korps at El Alamein in September 1942."

From: