what if the russians know

~~Ironcross~~ · #1 (**permalink**) May 18th, 2006, 03:32 PM

i think if stalin known and believed the opearation was going to happen, he will put alot more troops around the russian border. which will allowed the germans to face them with full strenth and supply, instead of facing them in the gate of moscow.
what do you think

[ 18. May 2006, 10:42 AM: Message edited by: Ironcross ]

Richard · #2 (**permalink**) May 18th, 2006, 04:04 PM

A large German build up along the border must have got the warning bells ringing. I think there were some officials who smelt a rat, but having Stalin as your boss must have been very off putting to inform him of your suspicions.

Miller · #3 (**permalink**) May 18th, 2006, 07:25 PM

Stalin sure got enough warning from Churchill and his operative in Japan, Richard Sorge. Actually, a drunk German deserter informed Soviet troops of the invasion the day before it occurred.

T. A. Gardner · #4 (**permalink**) May 19th, 2006, 02:37 AM

Numerically, the Russians had an immense army on their frontier. Leaders of nations and Generals everywhere always think that the ability of their army is equal to its numerical strength. Unfortunately, this is rarely the case. More troops on the border meant more POWs and KIAs for the Germans to haul off.
The Red Army in 1941 was in terrible shape logistically, maintenance-wise and, even in material. The manpower was neither motivated or well led (incidently, the purge really didn't cause this most of the officers were simply incompetent to begin with). Training was abysimal. Few units could even begin to use much of their equipment effectively.
One can look at Kalkin Gol where what amounted to a single reinforced Japanese infantry division was destroyed only after a sustained and repeated effort by roughly a Soviet army; about 5 to 8 times the Japanese force. The Soviets lost hundreds of tanks and thousands of men defeating this Japanese unit. The Red Air Force lost hundreds of aircraft to less than one hundred Japanese fighters committed. It was a slaughter in the air fully equal to that the Luftwaffe perpetrated on the Soviets in 1941. Polikarpov, the then premier Soviet fighter designer was sacked personally by Stalin over this incident and the miserable performance of his fighter designs. Zhukov, who was one of the primary agents in Kalikin Gol proved a mediocre general capable only of winning primarily through overwhelming force applied in a ham fisted manner.
I personally think that if Hitler himself had called Stalin and told him he was going to invade next month giving the date and time the Red Army would have been slaughtered every bit as badly as it originally was.

~~Ironcross~~ · #5 (**permalink**) May 19th, 2006, 03:08 PM

thank you T.A.
that was my point.
i was overjoyed to see someone actually look at it the same way
as i do.
did you read a book called "The Art of War"?

Za Rodinu · #6 (**permalink**) May 20th, 2006, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by T. A. Gardner:
I personally think that if Hitler himself had called Stalin and told him he was going to invade next month giving the date and time the Red Army would have been slaughtered every bit as badly as it originally was.

That's pretty harsh but I have to agree!

T. A. Gardner · #7 (**permalink**) May 20th, 2006, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Ironcross:

did you read a book called "The Art of War"?

I have read many books titled the "The Art of ..."

And, yes I have read both Sun Tzu's The Art of War in several different translations, prefering Samuel B. Griffith's. I have also read Niccolo Machiavelli's The Art of War along with The Art of Maneuver, The Art of Wargaming, The Art of Blitzkrieg, and The Art of Command among others. It seems a popular turn of phrase for titles.

T. A. Gardner · #8 (**permalink**) May 20th, 2006, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Za Rodinu:
That's pretty harsh but I have to agree!

I prefer the phrase "hard but fair."

clown · #9 (**permalink**) May 22nd, 2006, 08:50 PM

I'm not convinced that Stalin did not know about german intentions.
But what choice did he have? At the time of the german attack he kept over 40 his best divisions on the border with China.
Even though Soviet intelegence was reporting that Japanese do not intend to attack from the east, taking those forces from the East was a big gamble.
After all the intelegence might have been right at the time, but once the Germans attack and advance as fast as they did, Japan could have change her mind very easely.
Think of all the resources they could have capturing vast almost unpopulated Siberian territories.

Richard · #10 (**permalink**) May 23rd, 2006, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by clown:
At the time of the german attack he kept over 40 his best divisions on the border with China.
Even though Soviet intelegence was reporting that Japanese do not intend to attack from the east, taking those forces from the East was a big gamble.
After all the intelegence might have been right at the time, but once the Germans attack and advance as fast as they did, Japan could have change her mind very easely.
Think of all the resources they could have capturing vast almost unpopulated Siberian territories.

To the first point there were some border conflicts between Russia and Japan which resulted in victories for Russia but at a very heavy cost, the outcome resulted in Japan changing their plans.

Quote:

July 1938 , Soviet and Japanese forces battle near Lake Hassan on the border of Manchukuo.

May 1939, From May to September 1939 Japan and the Soviet Union fought a fierce, large-scale undeclared war on the Mongolian plains that ended with a decisive Soviet victory with two important results: Japan reoriented its strategic emphasis toward the south, leading to war with the United States, Britain, and the Netherlands; and Russia freed itself from the fear of fighting on two fronts, thus vitally affecting the course of the war with Germany.

August 1939 , Battle of Khalkin Gol. The Battle of Khalkin Gol was a major Russian victory over the Japanese Kwangtung Army in August 1939 on the border of Manchuria and outer Mongolia. It was the most disastrous defeat ever suffered by the Japanese Army.

[ 23. May 2006, 08:28 AM: Message edited by: Richard42 ]

clown · #11 (**permalink**) May 23rd, 2006, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Richard42:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> July 1938 , Soviet and Japanese forces battle near Lake Hassan on the border of Manchukuo.

May 1939, From May to September 1939 Japan and the Soviet Union fought a fierce, large-scale undeclared war on the Mongolian plains that ended with a decisive Soviet victory with two important results: Japan reoriented its strategic emphasis toward the south, leading to war with the United States, Britain, and the Netherlands; and Russia freed itself from the fear of fighting on two fronts, thus vitally affecting the course of the war with Germany.

August 1939 , Battle of Khalkin Gol. The Battle of Khalkin Gol was a major Russian victory over the Japanese Kwangtung Army in August 1939 on the border of Manchuria and outer Mongolia. It was the most disastrous defeat ever suffered by the Japanese Army.

</font>[/quote]All of it is true, nevertheless, Sibirian Divisions were not moved to the German Front until October of 1941. By that time the situation was desparate.
I do agree with parrallel forum about taking Moskaw would have been inconsecuantial for outcome of the war. Yet keeping these resources some 9000 miles away from the action for 3-4 months means something.

Za Rodinu · #12 (**permalink**) May 23rd, 2006, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by clown:
Yet keeping these resources some 9000 miles away from the action for 3-4 months means something.

What it means is that the Russians did not have full trust in intelligence, and besides they were unsure that if the Japanese were quiescent they would not become aggressive later. The Japanese sent a strong signal that they were engaged elsewhere when they attacked towards South East Asia and Pearl Harbour. This was very tranquilising to the Soviet authorities...

Za Rodinu · #13 (**permalink**) May 23rd, 2006, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by clown:
Think of all the resources they could have capturing vast almost unpopulated Siberian territories.

That is exactly the problem, the immense emptiness of Siberia. No roads, no accesses, no way to build a logistical network, no nothing. No way to get to those resource rich areas, even if the Japanese knew where they were (remember the Soviet paranoia about maps?). The only sensitive areas close to the border would be the Transsiberian railway (and the Japanese had once tried to go for that and got a bloody nose) and the Vladivostok (Primorskyi) Region but that was heavily fortified and manned. Good luck to them! All the rest was really quite far from the Manchurian border, on the East side of the Urals, thousands and thousands of miles away.

Actually the Russians did do exactly the converse in August 1945, that is, smash through Manchuria - also a damned barren land. But they did this in style: an overwhelming correlation of forces, highly trained armoured troops, doctrine to employ them that had been perfected against the toughest masters, imaginative logistics.

All that the Japanese lacked, the Russians had. They were just biding their time, waiting for a front to be finished before embarking on a second one.

john1761 · #14 (**permalink**) May 23rd, 2006, 09:20 PM

But , remember after WW1 the Japanese had several divisions In Siberia . I sure they knew were the resources were.

Za Rodinu · #15 (**permalink**) May 23rd, 2006, 10:23 PM

Yes, and there was involvment in the Civil War too which was great to endear them at the eyes of the Reds

. Do you have any idea of Japanese zones of operations at the time so we can make an idea and correlate to possible resource zones? Mind you, these were known rather later, as Siberia was only good for reindeer and furs. Gold, diamonds and oil started to be explored a lot later than the WWI / Civil War timeframe. And Siberia is awfully big, so chances of a Japanese stumbling upon a pot of gold (which exist only in Ireland, as we all know) seems pretty slim.