On the other side of the world...

Japanese planers decide not just to attack pearl harbor, but to invade the Hawaiian islands! Instead of invading the Philippines, the Japanese take Hawaii. This completely isolates Australia, forces the US pacific fleet to be dispersed among west coast bases, and threatens the USA directly. It also allows for the capture/destruction of the panama canal. Basing a large force of aircraft throughout the Hawaiian islands makes taking them back a very costly proposition. It would also free up the Japanese forces to expand their empire throughout the south pacific, and paves the way for an invasion of Australia.

The USA would not be able to mount a counter invasion till it had sufficient carriers to blast their way through the defending air forces. I think the USA had what? 500 aircraft in Hawaii at the time of the attack? So if Japan wanted a (relatively) cheap way of delaying the inevitable, basing 1500-2000 aircraft in the Hawaiian islands is it!

America couldn't match that with carrier aircraft till late 43 early 44. No 30 seconds over Tokyo, no coral sea, no midway, no Guadalcanal. This wouldn't win the war for japan. But it would allow Germany time to strengthen its hold and perhaps force the USA to abandon its hope of defeating Germany anytime soon.

Combine #1, #2, and #3 and it's a whole new ball game!

[ 29. November 2006, 09:52 AM: Message edited by: Otto ]

__________________
Maskirovka: Show the world one thing...then do another.

http://maskirovka.blogspot.com/

It would take alot of landing barges and transport craft to invade Hawaii. The islands are spread over a large area and it is many thousands of miles back to Japan for resupply. I would see this as similar to Germany going too deep into Russia and being over extended too much. Also Hawaii has nothing of use to the Japanese, where as China and the rest of SE Asia has raw materials that the Japanese do need.

__________________
Work Harder ! Millions on welfare are depending on you.

Hello again. [img]smile.gif[/img]
Hawaii has one thing that china and SE asia don't have; strategic position! And after Hawaii, then the phillipines aren't going anywhere.

__________________
Maskirovka: Show the world one thing...then do another.

http://maskirovka.blogspot.com/

We have (as has been on many boards) discussed this at length. The Japanese lose badly. See this thread for example:

Pearl Harbor

Whew! When I saw this thread listed I thought the Germans were going to invade Hawaii as well!

How would it go? Heiloha?

__________________

Hahahahahah hey if they can take Iceland, they can take Hawaii!!!!

__________________
The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler

You can see it now party members building sand castles.

__________________
Regards, Richard

and that is a question....why would the germans take over hawaii? i would think they would get in arguments with japan, since japan believes it is in their area...

__________________
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -Winston Churchill

Lol, Ya got me! Heh heh.

T. A. Gardner: I have too say thank you for your informed and well researched input! I had NO IDEA the U.S. had such strong ground defenses in the Hawaiian Islands at the time of the Pearl Harbor raid. Additionally, I had thought that their (Japanese) Philippine Island Invasion force was much larger.

TA152: You also deserve thanks, as you have helped me with good posts, and additional links to needed info!

I have too say, given the strength of the American ground defenses, as well as the distance from Japan, the whole concept becomes rather unworkable.

__________________
Maskirovka: Show the world one thing...then do another.

http://maskirovka.blogspot.com/

Your very welcome. Actually me and T.A. Gardner are the smartest forum members but the others are not wise enough to apprciate out superior IQ's.

__________________
Work Harder ! Millions on welfare are depending on you.

__________________
The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler

Talk for yourself TA152! I'm killing brain cells as fast as I can downing pints. Actually, I do some of my best work three sheets to the wind in true barnacled shellback sailor fashion!

It would have been better for the Japanese if they were to destroy the repair facilities and fuel farms at Pearl. Then if they took Midway, they could have been in decent positon to control the pacific. It would have been a difficult task to resupply, but it would have been easier than Hawaii. Also they would ot need the forces required to defend an area like Hawaii.

Without the facilities that were are Pearl to fix and supply the ships, the fleet would have been moved to the mainland. This would severly restrict the ability to strike in the Pacific. Aircraft at Midway would have been able to protect Japanese ships, who would have deterred any attempts at reconstruction of Pearl. However, such imagination and ability to develop the proper equipment to maintain such an operation was lacking in the Japanese fleet. If Naguma had not been allowed to lead the fleet, or had listen to Fuchida it might had extended the war for years. The big problem was that Japan never properly provided for the training and replacement of air crews.

__________________
Lord, let me be the person my dog thinks I am.

Seadog is substantially correct.

The Japanese planners were blind to the fact that the Amercans could ever be starved for oil when they failed to destroy the stores, stockpiles and facilities in the vicility of Pearl Harbor. Had the First Air Fleet retuned for a second or third strike, having lost the element of surprise, they probably would have lost many more planes and crews, but would have crippled the ability of the Americans to recover their loses. As it was, the US fleet had been able to recover many of their lost ships in the shallow harbor.

So, to save the Fleet, the Japanese lost Guadacanal, lost the initiative. The attempt to recapture initiative lead to the stagger losses of the Midway campaign.

I don't really think attacking either the Navy yard itself (repair facilities) or tank farms would have had that much effect on things either in the short or long term.
With the Navy yard, hitting shops and even the power plant would have had little lasting effect. Machinery of the period proved (and the German experiance with Allied bombing proves this repeatedly) very resiliant to blast and was not prone to being destroyed by anything short of a near direct hit. Thus, while the buildings and sheds might have been damaged or destroyed the vital equipment inside would have remained largely intact and easily returned to service. Civilian shops could also have been contracted for some work to make up for loss of capacity too.
As for the tank farms, if you look at a map of Ohau there are several around the Pearl Harbor area. These include both military and civilian farms. Just within the Naval station alone there are three scattered farms that would have to be hit. The number of tanks shown implies that even a full strike concentrating on these targets and the Navy yard would be very, very unlikely to put the bulk of what was present out of commission. The Japanese simply lack the aircraft, time, and weapons systems to efficently do this.

I am pretty sure that Prang had documented that we came very close to abandoning the Hawaiian islands after the attack. The tank farms would have been a problem sue to the lack of refueling the ships until they were replaced. Other tank farms would have been unsuitable for the needs of the Navy. Like most tank farms, it would take very little for them to be taken out. Many of the other tank farms would have gasoline and not be able to convet to bunker fuel for a period. Even then, there must be a way to get it to the ships.

The lack of repair facilities would have been impossible to work around for a long period. The war could not wait for the facilities to be restored, so they would have moved the fleet to the west coast. It also had the advantage of being a more defendable position.

As for using civilian facilities and contractors, I suspect that immediately after the attack, everything that could be dedicated to the effort was going 24/7.

__________________
Lord, let me be the person my dog thinks I am.

I doubt the Japanese could have taken the HI in Dec41, they would have had to drop a few plans much closer to their heart and more aligned to the cause of the war, ie; Malaya, Philipines, DEI. Capturing HI would not win the war, not capturing the Oil & Resources of the DEI would lose the war.

A failure in my mind was not to have a force ready to take Midway on day 1, A Brigade could have walked in.

It would have made an interesting island to base G4M Betties from!!

__________________
Whe're off to see the Wizard, the wonderful wizard of OZ - 6 Australian Infantry Div, Bardia January 1941

Besides the Tank farms and repair facilities(are the dry docks included?) they should hit the naval ammo dumps in the other part of the harbor. This would have servely curtailed the navy's offensive abilities for a long time.

The dry docks should be hit, but the chance of major damage there would depend on pinpoint bombing. As with anything, the assessment would depend on the time required to restore function.

As for the ammo stores, they are usually in fairly small groups, well protected. If they presented a choice target, they would be a target, but in most cases, it would be a waste of aircraft.

__________________
Lord, let me be the person my dog thinks I am.

They had a show on Hist. channel on th 7th that stated that there was a large ammo dump for the whole fleet in another section of pearl. And if that dump was hit the US navy would have been criticaly short of ammo for months. There was an explosion of one of the LSTs after pearl that caused considerable damage. Some thought they were under another attack. The IJN missed many targets by not launching their 2nd and 3rd waves.

All i can say from sunny Sydney Australia, Konichiwa.