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| What If? Alternate History: Speculate about WWII battles that never were. Could the Axis have won? What if Hitler had the bomb? |

November 7th, 2007, 03:08 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr Oberst
I would entertain that possibility since they gave the Japanese such a thrashing at the end of the war.
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The way i was thinking was that if the Japanese could at the very least tie down the Soviets with skirmishes or even an outright invasion, the Soviets might not be able to transfer their troops in the east, westward to fight the Germans, not specifically in Stalingrad but along the entire front. Now i am not saying that the Soviet Union can't raise those additional men, i believe they can, but not from the east.
The Japanese got absolutely smashed 1945, but here is my point, the difference of the Japanese Army in 1941 (In this thread no longer at war with China and distributed thoughout South-East Asia and the Pacific) is vastly stronger that the Japanese Army of 1945. If you were to use my timeline in this thread the Japanese would deploy about 40 divisions in 1941 eventually by 1945 they have deployed 107 divisions against the Soviets, also the Japanese would have land based units of the combined Imperial Japanese Naval and Army Air Forces.
Japan as i have stated does not have to occupy the entire Siberian area, just go after stategic targets like the trans-siberian railway, coastal ports, Sakhalin, Kurile Islands the destruction of the Soviet Pacific Fleet.
Some have mentioned China, if my senario is historically correct then China is a no show concerning Japan, as Nationalist China signs an Anti-Commintern Pact with Japan, Germany and Italy, Chinese Nationalist are now at war with Communist Chinese.
Now ont Britain itself, as discussed, if America does not join the frey, then Britain is in no shape to launch Operation Torch Eventually right up to the invasion of Italy, Greece and the Balkans, Operation Overlord and carry on both Daylight and Night bombing offensive on Germany, it also does not have the forces to evict the Germans out of Norway. Britain could not hope to fend off the Axis in North Africa and the Mediterannean, without a second North African Front, Axis forces would eventuall overrun Egypt.
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November 7th, 2007, 03:28 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Well I'm following your logic, but I think there would be a serious constraint on Japanese effective operational area concerning the Russians. It all comes down to available weapons systems at the time. With the basic small arms comparisons PPsH 41, Svt40 versus the Arisaka. The Japanese type 96 was similar to the Bren and based on the Czech ZB26 used by the Waffen SS. but other than the Nambu type 11, Hotchkiss copy the Japanese lacked SAWs. As far as Armor the Japanese were no match for the Russians tank for tank as well as AT weps. The Navy conflict easily goes to Japan but then there's operational distance in play which could be compensated somewhat by Japanese Air Power but that's if they secured land bases to further the operational effectiveness. That operational distance would be key and how much territory would Russia give up undefended if Germany was a greater threat? Thought the Nationalist anti communist treaty made sense especially since Germany had provided equipment to China under license.
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November 7th, 2007, 03:54 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr Oberst
Well I'm following your logic, but I think there would be a serious constraint on Japanese effective operational area concerning the Russians. It all comes down to available weapons systems at the time. With the basic small arms comparisons PPsH 41, Svt40 versus the Arisaka. The Japanese type 96 was similar to the Bren and based on the Czech ZB26 used by the Waffen SS. but other than the Nambu type 11, Hotchkiss copy the Japanese lacked SAWs. As far as Armor the Japanese were no match for the Russians tank for tank as well as AT weps. The Navy conflict easily goes to Japan but then there's operational distance in play which could be compensated somewhat by Japanese Air Power but that's if they secured land bases to further the operational effectiveness. That operational distance would be key and how much territory would Russia give up undefended if Germany was a greater threat? Thought the Nationalist anti communist treaty made sense especially since Germany had provided equipment to China under license.
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Which is my point as well, i can concede that with mobility (Mechanised units) the Soviets have it all over the Japanese, but here is the twist, if is almost impossible for the Japanese to Use mechanisation due to topography then the Soviets would be hampered by that same constraint, so mechanised transports can't maneuver then they cant deploy their big artillery pieces, so light and medium artillery pieces could only be horse drawn. If mechanisation is impossible then tanks are useless on both sides, it comes down to a footslogger war.
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November 7th, 2007, 04:15 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Well I'm not an expert with the terrain of the area but are you sure that mechanized units couldn't operate in that coastal reagion? That is just outside of Naval big gun range.
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November 7th, 2007, 05:41 PM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roddoss72
Which is my point as well, i can concede that with mobility (Mechanised units) the Soviets have it all over the Japanese, but here is the twist, if is almost impossible for the Japanese to Use mechanisation due to topography then the Soviets would be hampered by that same constraint.
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The T-34 proves this theory incorrect, as it was capable of going in many places where the German Panzers were unable.
While I understand that there were only a few available, even a handfull would be more then a match.
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The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler
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November 8th, 2007, 03:45 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloniksp
The T-34 proves this theory incorrect, as it was capable of going in many places where the German Panzers were unable.
While I understand that there were only a few available, even a handfull would be more then a match.
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What was the capability of the T-34/76 as per coverage in gradient degree, plus what was the coverage of paved roads in the east and those roads that could take heavy tracked traffic.
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November 8th, 2007, 04:37 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roddoss72
What was the capability of the T-34/76 as per coverage in gradient degree, plus what was the coverage of paved roads in the east and those roads that could take heavy tracked traffic.
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The T-34 was designed specifically to overcome these problems and is why the tracks were wider to begin with. While the German Panzer sunk in the mudd, the T-34 would be able to go over it with more ease.
Im sure Von Poop, might elaborate on this one as he is the tank expert. 
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The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler
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November 9th, 2007, 01:20 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Well I'm still unclear about the terrain issue in the area discussed, if the armor was subject to choke points in the terrain, then airpower could interdict effectively if not then armor could be brought to bear on a broad front and the japanese would have a difficult time dealing with it without carrier and big deck gun support.
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November 9th, 2007, 01:39 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Glantz' August Storm: Soviet Tactical and Operational Combat in Manchuria, 1945 has some excellent military topographical maps of much of the region in question. In fact, Glantz notes that the Japanese were suprised on more than one occasion by Soviet armor crossing swampy / marshy regions they deemed impassable that exploited the weak local defenses based on these assumptions of impassability.
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November 9th, 2007, 02:06 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner
Glantz' August Storm: Soviet Tactical and Operational Combat in Manchuria, 1945 has some excellent military topographical maps of much of the region in question. In fact, Glantz notes that the Japanese were suprised on more than one occasion by Soviet armor crossing swampy / marshy regions they deemed impassable that exploited the weak local defenses based on these assumptions of impassability.
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Topogaphical maps do show that throughout the Northern China/Manchuria/Korean/Soviet border and into the Intreior and along the Eastern Soviet Union.
1, Yablonovy, Standonov, Bureiskiy, Dzugdzhur, Cherski, Kolyma, Koryak, Sredinnyy Ranges and the Sikhote Mountains
Her Oberst, please read my post as i state that the Japanese do infact use both Carrier based aircraft and naval bombardment in their assault on the Soviet Pacific Fleet and to support infantry troops inland, i'm sorry to pull you up on that. But you raise an interesring mention and that is bottlenecks, if my assumption that the Japanese almost exclusive used Infantry and horse drawn artillery and the Soviets use their Mechanisation, the Soviets would eventually be stymied by vast bottlenecks within the lack of road system, Japanese aircraft would simply hammer the hell out of the trapped Soviet Mechanisation.
Slonisp, i fully realise that the T-34/76 was good at mobility in mud, so was the Panther, Tiger and King Tiger with their wide tracks, but that is on the Russian Western Front where in some places the Russian Steppes went on almost forever and was as flat as a pancake, but i defy anyone to tell me that the T-34/76 was as effective and mobile in very steep mountainous terrain in the Soviet Eastern Front.
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November 9th, 2007, 02:16 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roddoss72
Slonisp, i fully realise that the T-34/76 was good at mobility in mud, so was the Panther, Tiger and King Tiger with their wide tracks, but that is on the Russian Western Front where in some places the Russian Steppes went on almost forever and was as flat as a pancake, but i defy anyone to tell me that the T-34/76 was as effective and mobile in very steep mountainous terrain in the Soviet Eastern Front.
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The T-34 did pretty well in the Korean war 
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The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler
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November 9th, 2007, 02:21 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roddoss72
Topogaphical maps do show that throughout the Northern China/Manchuria/Korean/Soviet border and into the Intreior and along the Eastern Soviet Union.
1, Yablonovy, Standonov, Bureiskiy, Dzugdzhur, Cherski, Kolyma, Koryak, Sredinnyy Ranges and the Sikhote Mountains
Her Oberst, please read my post as i state that the Japanese do infact use both Carrier based aircraft and naval bombardment in their assault on the Soviet Pacific Fleet and to support infantry troops inland, i'm sorry to pull you up on that. But you raise an interesring mention and that is bottlenecks, if my assumption that the Japanese almost exclusive used Infantry and horse drawn artillery and the Soviets use their Mechanisation, the Soviets would eventually be stymied by vast bottlenecks within the lack of road system, Japanese aircraft would simply hammer the hell out of the trapped Soviet Mechanisation.
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Well don't be sorry(Band of Brothers)...No I was thinking about two things.
1. Logistics...supplies for both fronts, taking up transport, the need for Axis powers to have both long range bombers and fighter support to successfully interdict.
2. In order that the Japanese Airpower could interdict Russian Armor they would need choke points because trying to pick them off, tank buster style, Ju87G HS129, the Japanese had no similar weapons platform as did the Germans.
Which brings me to fueling the tanks, if you interdict the convoy those tanks without fuel become very tactically limited and then the great advantage over the Japanese is lost.
This thread reminds me of playing Risk. 
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November 9th, 2007, 02:23 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Given the quality of their espionage what happens if the Soviets launch a spoiling attack? They may well be able to wreck the offensive capability of the Japanese fast enough that they can keep up to the historical movement of forces to the West.
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November 9th, 2007, 02:29 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
More to the point with the original premise is the US State Department's (and US) position on negotiations with Japan known as "Hull's four points"
The Four Principles enunciated by U.S. Secretary of State Hull as a basis for negotiation with Japan:
1. Respect for the territorial integrity and the sovereignty of each and all nations.
2. Support of the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
3. Support of the principle of equality, including equality of commercial opportunity.
4. Non-disturbance of the status quo in the Pacific except as the status quo may be altered by peaceful means.
By this standard, Japan still faces a massive US embargo that will cripple their economy, arms shipments to China, the USSR, and other nations in the Pacific realm, a continued build up of US military infrastructure and capacity as well as diplomatic pressure to end hostilities with (in this case) the USSR.
And, the problem of British and Dutch embargos that would be a wholly seperate issue have not been addressed. If Japan invades the USSR their whole (note that) WHOLE economy crashes into a massive depression in under six (6!) months.
With, as this scenario as proposed, the entire Imperial Army and Navy engaged in a war with the Soviets and the quickly looming prospect of their home economy collapsing into ruin what do the Japanese do? They have nothing to use militarily to attack the US, Britain, or the DEI it is committed to a fight with the Soviets.
Japan is doomed and about to be ruined.
Oh, one might note that the Imperial Japansese Navy of the period was incapable of using aerial directed shore bombardment from ships. The system and technique did not exist in their doctrine. While ships can provide self-directed fire they cannot use forward observers on the ground on in aircraft for this purpose.
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November 9th, 2007, 02:34 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by lwd
Given the quality of their espionage what happens if the Soviets launch a spoiling attack? They may well be able to wreck the offensive capability of the Japanese fast enough that they can keep up to the historical movement of forces to the West.
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An excellent point!
Lets not forget the brilliant work of Victor Sorge.
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The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler
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November 9th, 2007, 02:38 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Note also that the Soviets could launch a second front from Mongolia and the Trans-Bakal region into eastern Manchucko. This would pose a problem for a planned single front Japanese assault on the Vladivostock region.
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November 9th, 2007, 02:48 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Well then its settled, the Japanese could not do much. Thread closed! 
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The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler
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November 9th, 2007, 03:11 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner
More to the point with the original premise is the US State Department's (and US) position on negotiations with Japan known as "Hull's four points"
The Four Principles enunciated by U.S. Secretary of State Hull as a basis for negotiation with Japan:
1. Respect for the territorial integrity and the sovereignty of each and all nations.
2. Support of the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
3. Support of the principle of equality, including equality of commercial opportunity.
4. Non-disturbance of the status quo in the Pacific except as the status quo may be altered by peaceful means.
By this standard, Japan still faces a massive US embargo that will cripple their economy, arms shipments to China, the USSR, and other nations in the Pacific realm, a continued build up of US military infrastructure and capacity as well as diplomatic pressure to end hostilities with (in this case) the USSR.
And, the problem of British and Dutch embargos that would be a wholly seperate issue have not been addressed. If Japan invades the USSR their whole (note that) WHOLE economy crashes into a massive depression in under six (6!) months.
With, as this scenario as proposed, the entire Imperial Army and Navy engaged in a war with the Soviets and the quickly looming prospect of their home economy collapsing into ruin what do the Japanese do? They have nothing to use militarily to attack the US, Britain, or the DEI it is committed to a fight with the Soviets.
Japan is doomed and about to be ruined.
Oh, one might note that the Imperial Japansese Navy of the period was incapable of using aerial directed shore bombardment from ships. The system and technique did not exist in their doctrine. While ships can provide self-directed fire they cannot use forward observers on the ground on in aircraft for this purpose.
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Well your response is defeated in my senario, as America lifs all santions to Japan, due to Nationalist China (the Legitimate Government) and Japan make peace.
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner
Note also that the Soviets could launch a second front from Mongolia and the Trans-Bakal region into eastern Manchucko. This would pose a problem for a planned single front Japanese assault on the Vladivostock region.
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Then what, their is one factor you have forgotten, Nationalist China and Communist China are at war, so the Soviet Union would have to support the Communist Chinese, and that would make an enemy of Nationalist China, so in the end the Soviets would be forced into conflict with Nationalist China as, Nationalist China has signed the Anti-Commintern Pact with Japan, Germany and Italy, any offensive into China by Soviet forces would be construde as helping the Chinese Communist, thus Japan and Nationalist China would becom allies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloniksp
Well then its settled, the Japanese could not do much. Thread closed! 
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Exceptionally arrogant of you, to close my thread, i say don't come back to this thread.
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November 9th, 2007, 03:18 AM
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Re: No Pearl Harbour
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloniksp
Well then its settled, the Japanese could not do much. Thread closed! 
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Come on don't flip the board, I was just about to take the Ukraine
Well I was enjoying your what if thread and was hoping for more detailed accounts of area, terrain, outcome of battle and why, because of what weapons systems used ect...  sort of a Hypothetical, supported battle scenario.
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November 9th, 2007, 03:21 AM
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