What if Bolshevik regime fall ?

What happen if the Bolshevik regime fall by a coup and the White Russian came to power in the 1942.

 

A somewhat extreme 'what if?'.

The German assault proves completely successful well ahead of all planned timescales as the political chaos completely melts the Russian defences.
Resources of Russia under Nazi control.
Millions more 'untermensch' efficiently murdered.
German chance of winning the war greatly increased.

All just a bit too far-fetched to contemplate for 1942 mate... and would probably require a serious bit of necromancy to bulk up the white remnants of scattered & ineffectual aristocrats by that date.

Cheers,
Adam.

 

Great..the Russian will be defeated and the conquest of the world is very close for the Hitler.

 

Or, what if Tugachevsky & friends had purged Stalin & his men first, gutting the Communist party rather than the military? Would they negotiate a 1939 treaty with France and Britian, and present a better army for war with Germany?

Now roll this question back to 1919 or 1920. The old Russian empire develops into a few large (Russia, Urkraine, White Russian) and many more small states with varying facist, democratic, socialist, ect... governments. Would this menage be able to reisit nazi aggression any better? Would one or more of these nations ally themselves with Poland, or with France to contain Germanys agression in 1939?

Alternately: The bolshiviks are not able to establish a police state. Instead a partially democratic socialist government rules the old Russian empire from 1920. Would they develop a better military than Stalin controled in 1939? Would such a government ally itself with Poland or France?

Or, a more open republican & much less socialist government favoring the middle & business classes is established. Agricultural & industrial development take a different direction from that under Leninn & Stalin. What sort of military would such a socioty develop, and would they be any more ikely to enter into alliances with France & its allies to contain a aggreive Germany.

I'll offer last: The Whites win in 1920. The old & conservative aristocratic familys return to power, joining with the remnants of the middle class to crush any reform. Instead of serving the Bolshiviks the secret police serve the grand dukes and their capitolist bankers. The peasants and factory workers are left without votes, rights, or opportunity. Would such rulers find any basis for alliance with democratic France & friends?

 

Well if there was no communist Russia there would be no "Great Bulwark against Communism". So The Russia's would not need a large army to protect communism from Hitler. With no Soviet Russia they would be no Rapollo agreement . So no advanced theroies or training for the Wehmair armed forces. Germany might not be the big threat.It might remain poland or England , as was historically.

 

With a non communist government?

I've not read Mein Kampf or Hitlers speeches & other writng throughlly, & its been a long time since I read any of those things...

My take was the foundation of Hilters views were racial. He saw the political systems of the Slavs, or the mongrel US as symptoms of their degeneracy, not the cause. So, instead of arguing for a war against the 'Jewish led Bolshiviks' ruling the Russians or Urkrainans ect.. he would have labeled them 'Jewish led bankers' ruling the .... ect... Thats in simplistic terms how he described the US. Either way his object was to make living space for the Aryans by conquoring the inferior Slavs. Destroying their political system was a secondary means to the end. So, if there had been a republic, a democracy, a facist state, or the old artistocracy, all would have been labeled a threat and described as requiring destruction.

 

If after reading Mein Kampf then Hitler would still conduct pograms against the slavs and other minority groups.

 

Getting back to the original question. Any opinions on which sort of government and social order gives the Russian/Slavic nations the best chance against Hitler? This should be judged according to which would have the fewest citizens killed and things destroyed during such a war, as well as in terms of just military victorys.

Had the Urkraine remained a seperate nation until this war it would be a serious military weakness. Then the potientially largest army would be divided between two states, with all the problems of political and military cooperation.

I'd see the worst case as perhaps the restoration of the aristocracy, the White Russians. They would have been the least likely to build modern military, and would have commanded little loyalty from the laboring classes.

 

I am going to go with Stalin and his regime......

 

Well, that one we know it worked

 

I guessing you are thinking of party discipline, the large army and weapons programs, and ruthless security services?

On the downside the purges seem to have crippled the Soviet army in 1941, and the temporary reversion to 1920s doctrine did not help. Last there was Stalins unwillingness to mobilize the defenses in the face of German perperations in the spring of 1941.

These other government forms I've suggested likely would not enforce so many peacetime sacrifices to build a peacetime army of some 300 conscript divsions, with thousands of tanks, cannon and aircraft. So there would be a large trade off between raw numbers, and the weaknesses of Stalins 1937 to 1941 decisions.

 

Actually Carl I picked Stalin for the exact reason that Za said because we already know that it worked

But in all seriousness, I pesonally believe that no matter what Government might have been present at the time of the invasion, Russia would have eventually prevailed. This opinion of mine is based on history, as Communist Russia has only been attacked once, the Tsaristic Russia has been attacked numerous times by numerous nations at their prime, ( if one may say so ) while at the same time Russia was at a much weaker state and were still defeated, Napoleon is an example. So in conclussion I am going to say that no, Germany would still have lost no matter what kind of Government ran the country. Sure my opinion may be a little bias as I am Russian, however as history shows, all who have tried have failed to conquer an unified Russia.

 

I see your point. Whatever government there is has the traditional advantages of the Russian empire. Plus in each case we are not assuming Hitler makes any decisions differently, so his army always runs out of supply between Smolensk & Moscow.

I'd guess then the difference would be in the ability of each sort of government to counter the nazi military. I'd think a corrupt or feeble aristocracy would do no better than in 1916. Perhaps worse. They might sit for years on the edge of Europe unable to organize their resources effectively. Coversely a less corrupt government which rewarded merit & ability rather than profession of ideology would be more likely to defeat the German advance earlier and run them out sooner.

So which do you think would have the greater advantage?

The diciplined communist police state?

The gentler workingmans socialist democracy?

A republic of the business and middle classes rewarding management ability?

Or the revived aristocracy?

 

Well, as I said before a) we know it worked, at a terrible sociological price but it worked in defeating aggression for all practical purposes.

c) If we understand this as a western style democracy with firm institutions and with a developed economy, let's say the USA for example, then yes, it might have worked as well but it wasn't tested in the face of massive land aggression

As for b) and d), if we take b) as the French 1940 model we know what happened and d) as the Russian Ancien Régime, I wouldn't expect too much of them. They had both historically failed in this respect.

Quite frankly I still don't see the point in this what-if, we might with the same reason speculate on what would happen if the Martians or the Worshipful Company of Fishmongers were ruling the Soviet Union at the time.

 

I picked up on this thread as it connects to arguments about advantages & disadvantages of the Soviet government/military when fighting the Germans. Am fishing for insights & viewpoints other than my own. Tossed up the alternative governments as a device for identifying several fundamental policy & social differences.

One other alternative that occasionally arises is: What if the Red Army corps is not purged of its officers & the mechanized warfare doctrines existant in 1937 continue to be developed?

 

Might the war of 1812 be an example?

 

Not a massive land invasion. Three raids of which two were aborted short of their objectives.

Bingo.

Of course the original inhabitants of North America witnessed a much more massive invasion...