If Japan invaded the Soviet Union...

Vote on what you think would have happened to the Soviet Union if Japan invaded at the height of the German invasion.

 

This is something that Hitler had hoped for definitely!

I believe that in the first place Stalin would have kept the troops in place in Asia, because he did need confirmation first that the Japanese are not attacking before he took the troops to fight the Germans in front of Moscow. So I cannot be sure that the Japanese would have cut like a hot knife into butter but..who knows...

 

If the Japanese didn't attack Pearl Harbour, but stuck to Asia the war would probably have ended quite differently.

 

There are several reasons that a Japanese attack on the Soviet Union, even at the height of the German invasion, would have failed.
First, the Soviets raised a new division for each one sent West from Siberia or Mongolia. The Soviets typically for most of the war maintained about 50 divisions in the Far East facing Japan. They also maintained parity or superiority in artillery and armor to Japan.
Second, the Japanese would have been literally hundreds of miles from the nearest rail head for supply. This means with every mile they advance their supply situation becomes more tenious. At Kalakin Gol the Japanese were 350 miles from their railhead and able to maintain just one infantry division at that position. The Soviets threw the equivalent of a reinforced corps against them and wiped out that divison,albeit at the cost of heavy casualities. But, then again, when have the Soviets ever been overly concerned with casualities?
Third, the Japanese army was in no way fit or capable of sustained large scale continential warfare against a major industrial power.
And, lastly, the Japanese get very little by invading. They don't aquire any major industrial sites, no major resources they really need and, no useful population for labor. If their invasion is for economic gain they get none from this course of action.

 

but if they would have invaded the soviets would have had to pull some divisions off the german front making it easier for germany

 

Must say I cannot think, like T.A. says, that there would be anything interesting or valuable for the Japanese to get in Siberia (?). Maybe some mines for resources but very little of that, I guess.

However the Japanese did have the northern and southern approach to the war possibility, and they decided to take the latter. I don´t know what were the goals for the northern approach.

The German attack was cancelled early in Decemeber and the Russian counter-attack, if I remember correctly, started after that. The first time the troops from east were used in late Ocotber, but it seems that the troops were not needed to stop the Germans, the weather did it as well as getting no supplies of men and food, but the troops were needed for the counter attack that might have destroyed the whole of Army Group Center.

 

Marxist interpretation of History! Love it! The man was a genious, he had to be right at least in one thing…

 

Why? As I pointed out, the Soviets typically kept about 50 divisions in the Far East throughout the war. The Japanese at their height had about 75 there and for much of the war, far less. Of these, only about 10 or 15 could have been used in an offensive in any case as the rest are engaged in internal garrison of China or in fighting the Chinese Nationalists or Communists. The Soviets began the war with equal or better equipment to the Japanese and far more armor.
They kept a substancial advantage in armor and artillery right through the war (yes, most of the armor were older models like the BT-7 and such but these were substancially better than anything the Japanese had). The Soviets also built much heavier fortifications and made very liberal use of mines; two things the Japanese eschewed form much of the war as defensive and defeatist...not the Bushido way so to speak.
About the only useful thing Japan might have managed out of an attack on the Soviets was conquest of Sakalin Island and its substancial oil reserves.

 

Why not go for those Oil reserves? They had naval and air superiority in the region and you said in another thread that in a USA vs USSR scenario it would be the first to go. Japan also had fuel shortages so why didn't they take it?

 

Because while Sakalin's oil was substancial it was far from enough to keep Japan's economy afloat on its own. Taking on a power that had recently thumped you twice is usually not a smart thing to do.

 

YEah, but really what could the USSR do about it? They were busy with the Japanese allies the Germans and they couldn't fight the imperial navy and airforce to get it back. And your argument that it was far from enough bla bla bla is nonsense. Nothing on its own is enough but every bit helps. And those oil reserves seemed pretty important in your arguments in the USA vs USSR thread. All of a sudden they're next to immaterial. (I hadn't even heard of them before I saw them mentioned here, I admit, you're more knowledgeable than me. I'm just going on what I read here and using logic, my only tool.)

And when did the USSR thump Japan, twice no less? From what I recall Japan beat Rusia solidly, sinking their navy and stuff in the prevous war, invading Manchuria and beyond in this one, the only instance of Japanese defeat by the Russians I recall is the 1945 huge push of the Soviets, after they took care of the Germans. We're talking about much earlier here, Pearl Harbour timeline, or even before that.

And about whether Japan would get any economic benefits or not it doesn't really see the big picture. What if the Japan invasion allowed Germany to beat USSR and let USA out of the war for far too long. Japan could take care of South Asia later. And then the USA. Now the question is would Japan's contribution help the Germans in the East, not whether they gain eco benefits alone. Sometimes, grand strategy can bring better rewards than short-term planning. You did make a good case about how the Eastern Russian forces were pretty strong and would resist successfully and even repel Germans at the western front without the Siberian transfer, but who knows? Maybe that was all that was needed to tip the balance and if not allow the Germans to beat the Russians outright or at least take out the resources of the Caucasus, it would perhaps create political problems for the USSR that would cause it to collapse and prove Hitler right. I'm not saying it's likely, but this is a what-if after all.

[ 10. July 2005, 09:03 AM: Message edited by: Komninos ]

 

The Soviets fought Japan in two major border incidents throughout the 1937 - 1939 period in China and Mongolia. Included in these were:

Changkufeng / Lake Kasan 1938. Both sides took several thousand casualities. The Japanese were forced to withdraw their troops from this area, at least temporarily.

Nomohan / Khalkhin Gol April 1939. Again, both sides took heavy casualities. But, the Japanese 23rd Infantry division was destroyed in the fighting (just over 70% casualities). The Japanese Army Air Force also took heavy losses. These were serious enough to force a major revision and expansion of pilot training to replace losses.

The Japanese had some rude shocks in fighting the Soviets in these "incidents" as well. They were totally unprepared to handle the masses of Soviet armor used. They were badly outnumbered in artillery and had virtually no means to counter the lavish use of this arm by the Soviets. Their small very professional airforce proved unable to cope with attrition and quickly was reduced to near uselessness. Japanese bombers proved unable to cope with Soviet fighters and their small numbers and bombload made them marginal as an offensive weapon.
Doubtless, Sakalin Island could have been taken by the Japanese at a fairly high cost (the Soviets recognized its importance and heavily garrisoned it). The problem is that they would likely lose large chunks of Manchuria in exchange, along with the resources in those areas.
I don't think the trade was appealing.

 

The Soviets fought Japan in two major border incidents throughout the 1937 - 1939 period in China and Mongolia. Included in these were:

Changkufeng / Lake Kasan 1938. Both sides took several thousand casualities. The Japanese were forced to withdraw their troops from this area, at least temporarily.

Nomohan / Khalkhin Gol April 1939. Again, both sides took heavy casualities. But, the Japanese 23rd Infantry division was destroyed in the fighting (just over 70% casualities). The Japanese Army Air Force also took heavy losses. These were serious e

 

T.A.

Just wondering if you have any data of the Japanese "the northern approach" that was one of the possibilities for their army?

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Whatever the end solution in the east ( probably the Japanese not getting anywhere in Siberia )I personally think that the Japanese might have attacked the USSR in the back if Germany asked after Barbarossa started, but only if Hitler had not made the August 1939 pact with Stalin.This was considered a major blow to the relationship between Germany and Japan especially by the latter. Even if the Japanese themselves signed a pact in spring 1940 with Stalin for non-aggression they never got over Hitler´s "betrayal". Something Hitler did not take into account when he declared war to the USA after Pearl Harbor it seems.

 

So the USSR not only was responsible for beating 80% of the Germans they took a big chunk out of the Japanese (especially their air-force) early on, greatly helping the USA before it even got into the war. Anyway I still think the Sakalin oil would prove more important to Japan than any territories it might lose in Manchuria (not to mention delaying PEarl Harbour and USA entry, perhaps then the selfish isolationist tactic of the USA would have dire consequences) which would have also stretched the Russian war machine even further. Personally I think since Russia lost its eastern Navy to the Japanese in the last war they would just sit and take it (the Sakalin incident) with mostly big words and border skirmishes and concentrate on the big threat, the Germans. But hey if the Russians try to fight in Manchuria then the second objective of helping the Germans in the West is accomplished too and those oil shortages would start hurting in a while. BTW, how big a percentage of the total oil of the USSR did Sakalin compose? Was the Caucasu much more important? Though perhaps with a collaborating effort the Japanese could take Sakalin and Germans could focus entirely on Caucasus and not taking out Moscow and knocking the door out to bring the house down sillyness. With so much oil starving the Russian war machine and people would be dealt a more important blow and Iraq would be right there for the taking too. I'm also sure Turkey could be convinced to join at this point seeing the obvious benefits and the balance of power in the region. I'm also assuming its short-sightedness in regards to USA economic might, just like the rest of the nations.

 

Sakalin: It represents about 20% of Soviet oil production. This increased during the war to about 25%.

Forces:
Japanese
The Japanese Kwantung Army (the overall command in Manchuria) had about 10 divisions in 1939, 9 infantry and one cavalry. The biggest armored unit was a single tank brigade with about 90 light tanks and tankettes. Additionally, there were 8 brigade sized border guard units occupying various fortified regions of the border. The 2nd Air army with about 100 aircraft total supported the ground troops.
By 1945 the size of the Japanese army in Manchuria had about doubled, at least on paper. However, many of the units were of poor quality and their armament was often inadequite.
In 1941 the Kwantung Army is still, more or less, the size of it was in 1939. The Japanese at this point have a total of 41 divisions in existance, so the Kwantung Army represents about 25% of the entire Japanese Army strength when Germany invades the Soviet Union.

Soviet:
On June 22 1941 the Soviets had in the Far East, Siberian, Central Asian and, Trans-Bakal military districts a total of 5 Armies, 16 Rifle corps, and 1 cavalry corps. There were a total of 28 Rifle divisions, 4 Cavalry divisions, 14 Border guard regiments, 3 Rifle Brigades and, 1 Airborne Brigade.
In mechanized units the Soviets had in the same districts:
2 Mechanized corps with 4 Tank Divisions and 2 Mechanized divisions in them. Additionally, there was 1 additional mechanized division, 1 mechanized brigade and , 3 motorcycle regiments in these districts.
The Soviets had about a 5 to 1 advantage in aircraft and about a 7 or 8 to 1 advantage in artillery.
On 1 July 42 the composition was:
7 Rifle corps, 4 cavalry corps, with 52 Rifle divisions, 30 Rifle Brigades and, 23 Cavalry divisions. Mechanized units included: 2 Tank divisions, 19 tank brigades, 2 motorized rifle brigades and, 1 mechanized brigade.
The Soviets still had about the same preponderance of artillery and aircraft they had a year before.

There is little doubt that had Japan attacked the Soviets they would have found themselves in very dire straights within a month or two of opening hostilities. If the US placed an embargo on Japan for increasing hostilites, a very likely proposition, Japan would have been badly hurt economically and in no position to open a war against the US or South East Asia.

 

Japan was in no position after their expansion into South East Asia, to open a new front into the Soviet Union. Japan did not have the supplies, transport and supply ships, aircraft, and troops, to invade and continue to support the invasion troops who were to eventually meet a wall of Soviet resistance.

 

Maintaining an army requires much less resources than fighting.

If the SU had to fight against the Japanese in the east, supplies have to be diverted from the West. And what about the condition of the Soviet forces in the east? Morale ? Combat readiness ? Willingness to fight ? With the Germans advancing towards Moscow, I would say a Japanese invasion of the SU would have a huge effect on the war.

One of the most important is that Zhukov may never be allowed to return to Moscow for it's defence.

Also not forgetting the oil embargo will only seriously hurt the Japanese Navy in the short term. Collapse of the SU will connect the 2 axis partners together.

 

Wishful thinking without substanciating merit. There is no material evidence that the Soviet morale would collapse with a Japanese declaration of war. With the almost certain early defeats of Japanese thrusts along with a counter invasion of Manchuria it is likely the Japanese who would suffer such a shock.

Zhukov's presence or absence will make little difference. His reputation is largely undeserved (see Zhukov's Greatest Defeat by David Glantz for example).

The Soviet forces in the Far East were maintained and had sufficent stocks of ammunition to fight from without harming the effort in European Russia. As I pointed out, it is the Japanese who will be far from their supply points and unable to maintain forces in the field. They lack both the motorized transport and rail services necessary. They also lack the engineers needed to provide roads or railroads in a timely manner.

An oil embargo is hardly a certainty.

 

Hmmm.....you are saying that the Soviet morale was still high during that time ? Another enemy, another front and more problems for the russians. And are most russians loyal communists ? Morale problems cannot be forseen anyway. If you were a Soviet soldier during those times, perhaps you can say it was wishful thinking. Anyway, the number of captured Soviet troops by the germans have proven you wrong.

And how aboutt the Russians having enough food for it's soldiers in the east as well ?

Really ? Read Albert Axell's book, Zhukov: The Man Who Beat Hitler . One book doesnt make it definite. Zhukov combined arms tactics in 1939 nearly wiped out the Japanese 23rd. See how well the Soviets did in invading Finland.

Though i have to agree with you on the supply problem. But then the Japanese had supply problems everywhere, especially Burma but they did manage to push the British from Rangoon.