If Japan invaded the Soviet Union...

Though the Japanese did push the British out of Rangoon this is small potatoes compared to the amount of territory they would have to contend with trying to move into Russia. There have been a lot of discussions about the Russian soldier's morale. The Russians had superiority in men, material, armor and artillery. The Russians might have taken some initial losses but seriously, not a chance the Japanese would be able to overcome the Russian superiority and their own inadaquacies at supplying their far-flung troops.

 

But Burma is basically jungle and swamp, extremely tough terrain to supply an army.

Yup, i agree that Japan will not be able to complete any invasion into Soviet terrority if the Germans failed.

What I am saying that it will have an huge effect on the war itself.

 

The Japanese would have faced the material and numerical superiority of the Russian forces. The Japanese would have had to be more successful against these standing Russian force than most people here believe they could be. In the face of the overwhelming aritillery and armor differences I cannot see the Japanese doing more than making a few initial advances followed by counter-attacks by the Soviets that should have easily succeeded.

Only if the Japanese succeeded in soundly routing the Soviet forces requiring reinforcement would it have distracted from the effort on the German front.

 

I don't see how the Japan could do any better than the Germans dealing with Russian weather and the terrain.
And the Russian T-34 will make mince-meat of anything the Japs could field.

Were they prepared for -30degree winters?

 

Japan Vs Soviet Union?

Would most likely lead to the phrase "Oh look... I drove over a Chi-Ha" being used alot by T-34 drivers...

Given the state of the Japanese army at the time it would have been a terrible mistake to commit another front. Hence why they didnt!

As for Zhukov... Well if he goes West he 'helps' defeat the Germans, if he stays East he would defeat the Japanese so its a moot point. Besides far more things stopped the Germans outside Moscow than just Zhukov...

Although his propaganda machine worked even better than Monty's, Patton's or Rommel's!

 

Japan was certainly no match for the Soviets in the state they were in. But if they had ended the war in China and threw the whole weight of the Kwantung Army into the East, Stalin would have had a problem. Of course even then, I don't think Japan could have made serious gains, as TA Garnder has already pointed out there was little to gain in the Soviet Far East.

Much more substantian is the delay of US entry into the war, as it would have positively impacted Germany's effort in Russia. Add to that with the full weight of the Japanese Army invoved against Russia, they would have to withdraw some forces from the West.

This all supposes, though, Japan ended the war in China. There would be no other way to carry out an assault against the Soviets and hope for it not to have drastic and terrible consequences within a year.

 

Is it possible that the US may never even enter the war ?
The mode in the US at that time was certainly anti-war.

 

Forces:
Japanese
The Japanese Kwantung Army (the overall command in Manchuria) had about 10 divisions in 1939, 9 infantry and one cavalry. The biggest armored unit was a single tank brigade with about 90 light tanks and tankettes. Additionally, there were 8 brigade sized border guard units occupying various fortified regions of the border. The 2nd Air army with about 100 aircraft total supported the ground troops.
By 1945 the size of the Japanese army in Manchuria had about doubled, at least on paper. However, many of the units were of poor quality and their armament was often inadequite.
In 1941 the Kwantung Army is still, more or less, the size of it was in 1939. The Japanese at this point have a total of 41 divisions in existance, so the Kwantung Army represents about 25% of the entire Japanese Army strength when Germany invades the Soviet Union.

Soviet:
On June 22 1941 the Soviets had in the Far East, Siberian, Central Asian and, Trans-Bakal military districts a total of 5 Armies, 16 Rifle corps, and 1 cavalry corps. There were a total of 28 Rifle divisions, 4 Cavalry divisions, 14 Border guard regiments, 3 Rifle Brigades and, 1 Airborne Brigade.
In mechanized units the Soviets had in the same districts:
2 Mechanized corps with 4 Tank Divisions and 2 Mechanized divisions in them. Additionally, there was 1 additional mechanized division, 1 mechanized brigade and , 3 motorcycle regiments in these districts.
The Soviets had about a 5 to 1 advantage in aircraft and about a 7 or 8 to 1 advantage in artillery.
On 1 July 42 the composition was:
7 Rifle corps, 4 cavalry corps, with 52 Rifle divisions, 30 Rifle Brigades and, 23 Cavalry divisions. Mechanized units included: 2 Tank divisions, 19 tank brigades, 2 motorized rifle brigades and, 1 mechanized brigade.
The Soviets still had about the same preponderance of artillery and aircraft they had a year before.

There is little doubt that had Japan attacked the Soviets they would have found themselves in very dire straights within a month or two of opening hostilities. If the US placed an embargo on Japan for increasing hostilites, a very likely proposition, Japan would have been badly hurt economically and in no position to open a war against the US or South East Asia.