Hitler, Stalingrad, Tuapse and rationality

I realize the title is something of an oxymoron. But as my user name implies, curiosity gets the better of me sometimes.

The strange thing about Stalingrad(among many others) is Hitler was adverse to city fighting. He had expressed concern in the past about other city combat scenarios. What's more, in the German strategic planning, the goal for Stalingrad was either to capture it or bring it under siege with artillery. And this had received Hitler's approval.

Down in the Caucasus's, the Germans were stretched(to say the least). In spite of that, significant penetration had occurred. In particular, the last significant port in the Black Sea was being hard pressed(Tuapse). This was the last refuge for the remnants of the Black Sea fleet which prevented uninhibited Axis use of the Black Sea.

So what happens if the German northern flank becomes just that? Stalingrad is used for artillery practice instead of the funeral pyre for the 6th army. The German 6th Army and 4th Panzer are relatively unbloodied. The large reserves that had been funneled there are available for the south, In particular, the air reserves that were squandered at Stalingrad.

This does presume freedom of movement for the German forces in the north. I think this conceivable if Hitler's obsession with the oil region overcomes his obsession with a city named after Stalin.

I don't doubt there would have been large Russian attacks in the north. But if you don't have a weakened 6th and 4th, what is the likely outcome? And what happens in Tuapse which had hung on by its very fingernails?

Obviously we will never know for sure. My estimation is the Black Sea fleet is forced out. Russian attacks press the northern flank, but I think it is uncertain that they can breach the Don crossings.

I'll leave it there.

 

The Germans had no need to

either to capture it or bring it under siege with artillery

What they needed was to establish a flank roughly along the line of the Volga and Don to protect the advance into the Causcasus againt the easily foreseeable Russian counterstroke. Their basic strategy as you suggest should have been a mobile defense. In the "land bridge" between the rivers this could be at, forward or, or behind Stalingrad, perhaps as far back as where the Volga-Don canal is today. At any rate, getting tied down in an urban slugging match was precisely the wrong strategy.

Not familiar with Tuapse specifically, but holding the Volga-Don line would likely enable the Germans to bring their Caucasus campaign to a successful conclusion, which would include capturing all potential bases of the Russian Black Sea fleet. To me, the prospect of conquering the entire Caucasus makes the effort to conclude the siege of Sebastopol pointless, as it would be isolated anyway. Ironically, the besieged port might have become the last refuge of the surviving naval units.

 

There were so many possibilities for the Germans. You really have to work at it to create a bad outcome. Hitler did manage this 'accomplishment', in one of the least sensible ways.

Tuapse was the last refuge for the Black Sea Fleet, and it was getting whacked from the air pretty good. That lessened with the diversion of forces to the Stalingrad fiasco. The thing about the Black Sea Fleet is if it was forced away/denied the Tuapse port, it was doomed. There was no where to go or support it. And once it was gone, there was no getting it back.

 

The original German plan called for taking Stalingrad first, establishing a line along the Volga and then heading south. The Soviets launched an offence in may and once this was beaten it was an open pursuit. Hitler decided to go for the Caucausus early. As far as how far the Germans could have gone in the Caucausus, I question whether they could have gone much farther then they did. The main issue is that the tank units would be useless in the mountains and the Germans did not have enough infantry to hold the Volga line and force their way through south to Baku. The Caucausus are quite large and could easily absorb a full strength AG on its own.

 

The point is that the Germans had to go at the same time
1)to the Wolga (to protect the left flank of AG A)
2)to the Caucasus (the main attack)
First the Caucasus and than the Wolga would be very dangerous,first the Wolge,would mean it would be to late for the Caucasus.
Whatever,both operations were only possible if in the first days the opposing Soviet forces were eliminated ,and this was impossible,in both cases .
At the end of august,it was evident that both operations had failed,and,as usually,in the Wolfsschanze,one was looking for culprits,and these were easily found :both commanders were fired (List and Bock).
At this period,the Germans only had 2 possibilities
a) remaining on the spot
b) withdraw (immediately:november would be to late) both AG's to the frontline of june 1942.
As to be expected,the Germans chosed option A.
Tuapse wzs ,IMHO,totally unimportant for the Germans .

 

Good replies! Many things were going on which makes the situation complicated to analyze.

As steverodgers801 described, the German general's plan was to take Stalingrad first. If they had been allowed to strike with the forces they planned to use, Stalingrad didn't seem to have a chance. Not that it was much of an objective. Tell you the truth, I've seen mentions it wasn't even an objective at all(until Hitler began tampering).

There were other things going on in the south that make this a very dynamic situation. The Chechens were active as a partisan force(some things don't change). The bigger thing was the Georgians were ready to switch allegiances. Tuapse did have some strategic passes. Very difficult to predict what could happen.

An then there was Turkey. Turkey was watching the progress very closely. If they had come in(big if, but very possible), the pooh pooh really hits the fan.

EDIT - Took out the Tuapse highway reference, the road system documentation is a little sketchy.

 

Just to follow up some resource issues implied in the prior posts.

The idea here is to speculate what would happen if resources that had been used in the Stalingrad operation had been diverted into the south. There is actually quite a list of them.

1. Substantial air assets, both for attack and supply. With a large increase in air assets, the Black Sea Fleet was toast. Germans already had hit these ships in its most remote location. Only other option was hiding out to sea, probably a one way trip.

2. Increased air supply makes a difference, this had been the ground forces largest need. And increased supply from naval assets happens, how much is open to debate.

3. The Alpini are actually used for their intended purpose, i.e. mountain warfare. This was the world's premier mountain division, and German divisions not excepted. In fact, all Italian forces were meant to go into the Caucasus.

This is not to necessarily imply the Germans overrun the Caucasus. Huge territory, no question about it. And the ground much favored the defender. But the Germans had forced their way into the Caucasus. They had a demonstrated capability.
What happens to a better supplied German/Italian force? And this was not 'Soviet' friendly territory, which was a real wild card.

 

3. The Alpini are actually used for their intended purpose, i.e. mountain warfare. This was the world's premier mountain division, and German divisions not excepted. In fact, all Italian forces were meant to go into the Caucasus.

I've had the same thought, it will be in my alternate history if I ever get around to writing it down. One of the most foolish aspects of the German campaign was positioning their less capable troops - Italians, Romanians, Hungarians - in what anyone with a map could foresee was the likely path of the Soviet counterstroke. At the very least they should have been alternated with German armies; even better would be to use them in less critical sectors, perhaps holding part of the line in AG Center or North, and free up German units for the main battle. It's even sillier when some of the Italians were actually the best mountain troops.

 

These are the events that draw me, the choices were so bizarre. As fiction, it wouldn't be believed.
And it gets even better when you look at the forces that were in that area previously.
1st SS Panzer(Leibstandarte) and Grossdeutschland.
They were withdrawn after the Dieppe raid. Hitler believed there was an Anglo American threat. The response was a bit extreme, to put it mildly.

Edit - 1st SS was the one withdrawn from the theater, Grossdeutschland was pulled back as a reserve force.