German miscalculation of Soviet unit avaialbility

I just thought, why did the German army decide that the Soviets would not able to raise any more units or that there could not be any more units after the Dneiper.

 

Multi faceted issue. The Soviet Union like Germany was secretive about its forces and did little to clear the fog of war for Germany. Germany also based their invasion on the effects of previous invasions were after a certain amount of disruption of the enemy they would lose the cohesion nedded to form/reform combat units. This of course did not take into account the large area further to the rear unaffected by the German Invasion. Another factor was that previously Germany attacked democracy's (or nations that had to give serious consideration to public opinion) and not a military/totalitarian state like Germany herself. Hitler could not conceive of a nation with the same 'national will' of his Germany. He should have asked himself 'what would Hitler do' if invaded by a similar manner by such an enemy.

 

Well it is very simple :the Germans knew about the strength (and the weaknesses) of the Soviet forces in the Western Military Districts ,they were convinced they could defeat them .
They also knew that the SU could mobilize millions in time of war,and that they could not defeat these millions .
Thus they planned to defeat the SU in a short campaign,BEFORE the SU could mobilize this enormous manpower,hoping,that the mobilization would take moths(as in WWII).
Thus,it was not the fact of the millions the SU could mobilize,that was important,but the speed ,and ,this was "killing" the Germans .
Not,that it would make a difference,if the Germans knew of the existence of the "invisible" C category divisions .

 

I think we can list many reasons: poor intelligence, Hitler's overconfidence and his ignorance. Perhaps Hitler was influenced by rapid fall of France. He believed that if you hit hard and fast, than any organization (state, country) will lose control and the ability to manage the situation.
We all know that Hitler named Russia as a "colossus with feet of clay."
In my opinion, besides reasons that list above, Hitler was wrong in two important points.
1. Hitler believed that the Russian people were unhappy with the Communist rule. Therefore, he thought: "we have to break the regular Red Army and other people will not fight for Soviet."
This is a mistake. Communist rule made a bad for some people. During the invasion such people met the Wehrmacht troops with flowers and bread and salt (Russian custom of hospitality). But a lot of people really began to live better under the Communists.
I mean the following. A simple experiment: Take a biography of any of the Red Army General. 99 percent of them had a place of birth - village (farm, country). This means that before 1917 year`s revolution, if they had been born like a peasants, they would have died as a peasants too (in Russia it was the lower class). But thanks to the power of the Communists, they became Generals (upper class) and received privileges (higher standard of living). This applies not only to military men. A large number of people obtained possibilities, which they did not have previously (free education, medical care, etc.). Many have become engineers and scientists. And the propaganda had been saying every day: "Tomorrow will be even better. Here are our enemies in the way. They are everywhere. But when we destroy all the enemies, then the earth would be heaven."
In short, when the war began, the people fought not only for his country and the native land but also the Communist rule too. Of course, not all. But there were very many.
A little funny. Some memories of the Red Army rank consist the following thought: "We knew it might be a war with Germany. Until then, Germany fought with other capitalist countries. But once Hitler started a war against us, his army (which consists of workers and peasants ) will turn their weapons against him. Germans themselves destroy Hitler. In Germany, the socialist revolution will occur and the war is over."
That such nonsense was in the minds of Red Army soldiers. I think that the Wehrmacht was also a misconception: "As soon as we start the war, the Russian people shoot all commissars and will give us the Moscow." Propaganda - a great deal.
2. Hitler believed that Russia is a disorganized country.
It was not the case. Lenin's slogan was: "Socialism - it's accounting and control." Stalin was a good student of Lenin (the best). Of course, control was not perfect. But Russia has a developed system of governance based not only on the mind, but on fear. Therefore, if anyone did not want to fight (not included in p.1), then those were forced to fight. The system was created for this purpose.
I think that Hitler did not consider these two important points, so the thought that Russia would not be able to collect new troops to replace destroyed units.
P.S. I would have a more written about patriotism, about the Russian desire to protect their land. But I think it's not a feature. This quality is present in every nation and every country.

 

Im not just talking about Hitler, but the actual army commanders. An example is Halder in his diary being shocked that the Soviets had already replaced their losses around August. I can understand underestimating how quickly the losses could be replaced, but to completly discount the availability of any more units beyond the Dneiper has to be one of the worse decisions of the war. The generals should have known better and at least preparred for the possibility.

 

Everybody outside the USSR badly underestimated soviet strength. Why? I'm guessing(!) they could not imagine a nation living in a state of near total war in a time of peace.

 

May be the activities of Hitler's generals had been suppressed by the authority of the Fuhrer?
Just as the Red Army generals were working under the pressure of Stalin's authority.
They perceived the information as dictators saw it. This was either because of fear or of admiration (unbounded faith). This is a disadvantage of a totalitarian regime (individual responsibility and high probability of made a mistake).
Well, could Halder did not know the numerous of population of Russia? Of cause, he known it.
He could have mistaken about ability of organization of replacement. And the mood of Hitler gave him the reason for this mistake (Russia fails to arrange the fast reinforcement).
And one more thought. The German generals could not really know that in May - June 1941, the Red Army motion began (the army began to move from internal military districts to the western boundary, creating second and third echelons).

 

Yes, I agreed. In that time peparing for war in USSR was outside the peace-time.

 

why was that one of the worse decisions of the war ???

 

Because the Germans were totally unprepared for resistance after Smolensk

 

But,this had nothing to do with the belief of the Germans that the Soviets could not mobilize their reserves in time .
The Germans were unprepared for resistance after Smolensk,because they were to weak to continue the fight after Smolensk .This was a given .There was no way that,on German side,the big fighting(with losses of more than 400.000 men) between 22 june and 31 august,could continue in september .The only thing the Germans assumed they could do after Smolensk,was a mop-up.That's why the campaing had to be won before september .
If the Germans knew/or did not know about the Soviet unit avability,the result was the same :a strong Soviet army blocking the Germans in september .
The German miscalculation about the Soviet unit avability,had NO influence on the outcome of the campaign,and can not be considered as a worse decision .
For the Germans to be prepared for resistance after Smolensk,and for the Germans to be able to smash this resistance,the Ostheer had to be doubled,and,this was out of the question .

 

This may be an oversimplification, but did any German general dare to tell Hitler that conquering Russia was an immpssible dream. I personally do not believe that anyone with the right mind thinks Germany could conquer Russia. Win battles, take a lot of territory, destroy cities, kill millions, yes, but then what. How could Germany hold all that land. Even if Stalingrad and Moscow fell. So what, what next. Gemrnay did not have enough people to take over all that land. The best germany could have accomplish is keep Poland, and may be Batlic States, and parts of Ukraine. Even then, good luck holding on to those. All while you have the Western front to worry about. Bottom line, it was impossible. Should have focused on the oil fields and not the rest of Russia.

 

I don´t know if Guderian and von Rundstedt made any real public announcements about it, but their first reaction was that "attacking this massive country is madness." If Hitler had fought on the eastern front in WW1 he would probably thought differently about turning east. Those who had fought there in WW1 were not interested to start a war with the USSR.

 

If Hitler had fought on the eastern front in WW1 he would probably thought differently about turning east. Those who had fought there in WW1 were not interested to start a war with the USSR.

You mean when the totally defeated Russia, despite having most of their troops fighting on the Western Front the whole time? If anything the WWI experience supports the idea that the whole rotten structure can be knocked down, even if it takes more than one kick. What they couldn't anticipate was that Stalin would be able to rally his people in a way the Little Father couldn't.

 

Its nice to talk about knocking things down and just one more kick. But what about the pratical side. If you take Moscow and Stalingrad, what next. Cone Germans overnigh and bring in 200 million to take control of Russia. I to this day can't see the practical side of invading Russia.

 

Nazis have assumed that all available Soviet soldiers will be placed in the most suitable manner for their instant destruction, like sardines or sitting ducks. Essentially, they assumed they have to deal with bunch of plain sub-human idiots. They should have known that Soviets facing them at the battlefield, predominantly sons of poor peasants, lived in rather demanding environment; these men and women knew all difficulties of life and knew how to endure and to survive. Nazis have underestimated people they have attacked. Ignorance mixed with self-adoration was fatal. It wasn't numerical dominance but strength of will that has defeated Nazis on the eastern front.

 

Well.These guys fought on the eastern front in WW1 and considered the weather and distances something they did not prefer at all. And they said "it is madness to attack this massive country" from the beginning.

 

Agree Tamino, but I to this day can not understand why Hitler thought Russia was possible. Even if he did wipe out majority of the Soviet froces, so what. What about the millions of millions citizens. Germany did not have enough men to chase Russians across Russia. And lets not forget the most important fact, as soon as you invade Russia, Russia just became an ally to US, Britian, France, Poland, Canada, Australia, etc. The only reason I see is that Hitler was sure Stalin would invade Germany first. Well I do not think so. I believe he was happy with Eastern Europe and half of Poland, with hardly firing a single shot. Not bad.

 

Even Bismarck said: "Preemptive war [against Russia] is like committing suicide for fear of death."