German - Soviet settlement, Pre Kursk. Effects on war?

Hi

What if Soviet peace feelers were received and favorably reciprocated from Berlin in early 1943 which resulted in a negotiated settlement between the warring tyrannies?

Assuming that it is like a replay of WW1.. something of a "Brest-Liovsk" with perhaps Germany getting all of Poland and the USSR keeping the Baltics, what would this do to the war plans of the Western Allies?

 

Well , I'm sure than at all times , for all sides there were some peace
contacts ,

it is after all a normal way to establish your enemy perception of strengh
get some intelligence and look for traitors :smok:


the soviets peace feelers of early 43 had the characteristic of not being
too discrets , they had multiple objectives,

- a positive response to ouvertures by finland ,romania and hungary
creating tension between the nazi allied
- a follow up on the japanesse constant demand to berlin, to make peace
with the soviets , keeping them sweet for the while .
- a clear signal to churchill than britain would be well advised to start
showing a bit more eagerness
-an extra card in stalin hands in preparation for the tripartite conference

the whole thing was somewhat overdone ,
there wasn't much of space to move ,and hitler didn't want to play
roosevelt got the message loud and clear, already not to taken much by
churchill , he got on stalin side at Teheran and made clear than the U.S.
did intend to pursue the war with all despatch . overlord was on !!

in the very highly unlikely case of some germano-soviet mark 2
four years of germany and englang glowering at each others over the
channel
a successful german campaign in north africa and the middle east
the crushing of japan by the U.S. doesn't miss a beat
overlord in 49 ,50 with the use of tactical nukes, the paratroops dropped
in a hot zone , two years of fighting until the rhine is reached .

hitler die of natural causes, negotiated peace .

:-? :-?

 

This settlement is feasible only from a rational point of view, something Hitler especially wasn't know to be holding. His ideology was based on the clash of races, and the Slavic race had to be enslaved. Therefore he obviously couldn't make peace with the Soviets without betraying his own beliefs, for which he had rallied his entire country.

Apart from that, Stalin would not be sitting on his hands after the peace settlement and would probably be eager to get all lost territory back from Germany. Thus we must ask ourselves how long a truce like this would last.

Jeaguer: nukes on Europe? :-?

 

Hi

Hitler was especially erratic, likely due to his health "condition" from late '42 on, so it is hard to guess if he would accept such offers.

I believe that peace feelers were sent out in early '43 via Sweden but were rejected out of hand by Berlin.

If a negotiated settlement was reached, it would be in both dictator's best interests. For Hitler, it is obvious that a military "consensus" could now possibly be be reached in the west.

For Germany, during this time of truce in the east, a gamble of sorts would need to be taken. A relatively small garrision force would likely be used in the eastern territories while the bulk of the Wehrmacht used in the Russian campaign would now switch to western and southern europe to meet the challenges there due in 1943-44.

If Russia were to move at this point, it would likely be a much easier drive to Berlin, but would likely mean a complete break with her former western allies who are about to go nuclear, so Stalin would perhaps choose to wait out the slugfest in Italy and France which could perhaps shove the Anglo-American forces off the continent or at least bloody them to the point that their civilian populations demand an end to the carnage.

With this scenario, the west is dispatched finding the support for continued operations in this theatre politically untenerable.

By Stalin's reckoning, a seriously weakened Germany may be ripe for a Soviet style revolution since revolution was in the air several times since the Kaiser abdicated in 1918. For the USSR, its only a question of whether to attack a weakened German army or wait for a revolution to occur in the streets of the Reich.

For Hitler, once the west is finally neutralized as a threat, all trains now run to the east. Germany would be able to move her near complete forces to the east to wage defensive warfare. The Red Army if it chose to move now would batter itself to pieces against such a force.

This is just a supposition of what each tyrrant could see as opportunities under such a situation.

 

I don't assume that Hitler would be capable of thinking so rationally, though.

I wonder if Marshal wouldn't have gotten his way in early 1943 if a truce between Germany and the USSR were looming ahead; opening a front in France would make it very hard for Stalin to abandon his allies. At this point the Germans had virtually no defences in France at all, and most of the Army was still heavily engaged in Russia.

 

Hi

That assumes a lot of Stalin.

It has been said that Stalin did offer to treaty with Hitler in late '42 early '43 but the little corporal wouldnt have it, so it is plausible.

But remember, this is a "What if...." scenario and one presumes at least common sense on the part of the players in this macbre drama, and that Hitler wasnt intent on national suicide.

 

many good points were raised , the one wich stick out is the
determination of mr hitler not to change course , a constant of his !!

As for the good faith of stalin...he was known as the supreme realist
but he wasn't stupid , the peace feelers were probably not meant
with much hope of an outcome , rather as a lying poker move

at the same time , toprepare the ground post hitler
he had an association of " free officers " from the
stalingrad's prisonners and a "free yougoslav" brigade out of the
fascist croat regiment taken there too, even with the same colonel .
stalin liked to keep plenty of irons in the fire


Roel as for the nuke in europe , the thinking is that the manhattan
project keep going full steam , the arguments for normandy are still valid
( the marines are in it too ,they are good at this and japan is toast )
the use of nuke as a breaktrough weapon is conceivable .

 

it is a know fact that hitler didnt really want war with the west..his main aims lay in the east....had stalin and hitler agreed a peace...this would have broken the allied coalition...i think it is probable that the germans would quickly seek some kind of peace with the western allies..in order to prepare for some kind of conflict with stalin that would surely arise sooner rather than later wether is was offensive or defensive.

no doubt that stalin would use any such peace to move the red army westwards without bloodshed and would plan on eliminating nazi germany once and for all within a short time period.

it is aslo possible that if hitler once peace was attained tried to restart a conflict he would be removed by the german armed forces.