Third World Aid

[Split from 'Fly me to the moon']

Foreign aid for third world countries is actually not a positive thing. There are two aspects of this. First of all, foreign aid is almost always in the form of goods from the first world, and thus the local farmers and manufacturers have no chance of supporting themselves. Second, the foreign aid prevents childrenfrom starving, but doesn't take into account that the parents still have the same number of children - increasing population and in turn famine.

The best way to help the third world is to cease the foreign aid, and in stead gradually allow the market powers to take over, which will increase the competitiveness of the third world nations products, and will increase wealth. This will lead to natural growth, as has been experienced over the last 100-200 years in Europe, and will prevent further famine. The growth in the third world will not take as long, but we should expect another 25-50 years of poor conditions before the third world will have a reasonable economy, if all foreign aid and trade regulations (including agricultural and indrutstrial support) is removed now.

Christian

 

Good comment,

According to Andy McNab's book "Immediate Action" he regards aid as the worst thing that could happen to the 3rd world, since it makes them dependant on it.

 

I wouldn't know who McNab is, but I think I'd like his economical philosophical standpoint

Christian

 

I'd guess you'd be slightly disappointed (Ex-soldier, ex-SAS, he doesn't come across as that enlightened or educated), if you can make Brussells next year you can borrow "Immediate Action" and "Bravo Two Zero", not my signed copy of the latter, but the other one I have...

 

Well, I have no advanced formal education in economics either (yet, working on it ), but that doesn't make the theory less sound.

So, you're the Simon 'from' Stefan's place? I hadn't realized that!

Christian

 

No, I'm not. Unless it's one of my other personalities... Shut up, they're talking to me now... oh dear, time for the "Special" wall paper again

In McNab's case according to "Immediate Action" he has practically no education whatsoever, it still makes it a good read though.

If you like that kind of thing I heartily recommend "Kill Zone" by Harry Mc Callion, it's a good book.

 

Hmmm... - what was the reference for Brussells, then? :-? *confused*

Christian

 

The Forum trip to the tank museum there.

 

Try here.

http://www.fun-online.sk/forum/viewtopi ... 1&start=60

 

I've missed that - I can't really say wheter I'll be able to make it. Depends on a lot of things. I didn't know Brussells has an armour museum though (I was there last spring)

Christian

 

Donavon Mcnab he plays for the eagles right

 

I wholly agree.
ps... I'm impressed by your grasp of macroeconomics and geopolitics. Have you read anything by Von Mises or others of the Austrian School?

 

I agree also, and the idea of a strong 3rd world economy is interesting, but is it probable? On paper, sure, but in today's global market, 3rd world countries could not compete against the powerful 1st & 2nd world global economies (unless they possess something everyone needs in a constant supply, ie oil).

For many of these poorer countries, they have little, if not nothing, to offer the 1st World. Most developed countries have the sources of raw materials, goods, technology, etc they need, so trying to tap into a highly unstable, 3rd World economy is not only incredible risky, but unecessary as well.

Sure, many of the products we use are manufactured in the 3rd World, but the workers there are over worked and highly underpaid, keeping them forever in the bottom recesses of society. If the people of the 3rd World have money to put into their economy, then it will advance, but untill then, their economies will be as stagnant as ever.

The majority of the 3rd World will continue to be that, foreign aid or not. It's a very pessimistic, almost sick way of seeing things, but I believe there is very little chance for the 3rd World to advance, especially with the population increases; the poor, unfarmable land that covers much of the developing countries; rampant government oppression and corruption; and the constant plagues of disease and famine.

Of course, some countries are an exception such as India. India is recieving somewhat of a boom in their economy due to the massive outsourcing in telecommunications. Putting people to work where they can make money is a powerful weapon against 3rd World economic stagnation.

Outsourcing is the key to global, economic unity. However, as everyone well knows, outsourcing is not popular amongst the people who live in those countries doing the outsourcing. It is a contradicting problem that I see little chance of being solved.

Ok, sorry to go off topic just a wee bit.

Oh yeah, while we are on the subject, President Bush called for the end of trade barriers for all nations, signifing a push into the right direction.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4246628.stm

 

Grieg
I haven't really read any advanced economic studies - I'm mainly self taught. My financial perspective is part of my theory of everything (well, duh ), though, so it should be reasonably consistant within that scope.

Zhukov
I actually consider it more than probable that the third world will attain a strong economy. At the moment, the third world lack the political and demographic stability of eastern Europe and south-west Asia, however within the next 25 years most of the current African dictators will have died, which could give allowance for a political system more friendly to the western countries - not necessarily a democracy, a dictatorship will work as well, but at least a system where foreign investors aren't killed.

We can already see in eastern Europe and south-west Asia, that the first NIC (newly industrialized countries) already have so high wages that production is being shifted. Their economies are also blossoming (look at China and Poland), and will have strong enough economies to allow the general population to live at western standards within the next 20-25 years. This will cause the next NIC wave. This cannot happen continually, though. As I see it, the wave after the current one will include such countries as Romania and some Latin American countries, and the wave after that will only be small, and will pick up countries like Chechnya and North Korea.
I base my time estimates on the current developement, where Japan was the first NIC, and is now a fully industrialized society (which took about 40 years). The Chinese economy has reached its current level during approsimately 20-30 years (it would be impossible to determine how long exactly, because of the slowly evolving nature of economics). The central European countries, like Poland, have been somewhat faster, mainly because transport to western Europe is very fast, however transportation is becoming increasingly cheap (which will be even more true when hydrogen or alcohol cars will become standard). This time frame is also consistant with two solar cycles, which is known to affect global climate, and thus agricultural output.

When exactly Africa will pick up is difficult to say, because political stability it required, however South Africa is already quite advanced, primarily with agricultural products (wine). Because of its climate, I see Africa (and to some extent Asia) as the future agricultural center of the world. Centralized production of food, reduced to a continent, is of course a problem in case of large-scale war (which is very likely, given a time frame of 100 years in total), however this will in trun solve the problem of over population. As we increasingly become independant of other raw materials (the main important raw materials today being coal, oil and various metal types, as well as uranium - raw materials like gold are expendable, and coal and oil will become less important once the switch to nuclear power and hydrogen or alcohol cars is made), agricultural products will become a very important raw material. The main hinderence to this is the current trade regulations within the EU and the US for agricultural products, but these have to be abolished anyway.

All of this will in turn result in higher wages in the third world countries, and in turn lower wages in the western countries (because of the decrease of the price of essential living expenses). All of this will result, in time, in a global wage level which is constant.

As for President Bush, that just confirms my general appreciation of his foreign politics (though I disagree with him on many domestic matters) - but lets not get into that.

Christian

 

But the climate is not ideally suited to production of staples such as wheat, and frankly their soils are not optimum for food production. Europe & patches of the USA are far better optimised naturally for such activity.

 

That is not entirely true. Africa has a very varied climate, from desert to rain forest, and most crops will grow there. It is true, that certain types of agricultural products cannot be grown there as easily, but these products can be grown in Latin America or astern Europe.

Christian

 

i'm more for the theory of stopping all aid (not that i'm a racist or so) but what we're doing now is making the problem bigger. we bring in enough food, everybody lives, they make more children, they bewcoome more hungry (because they can't produce food on their on) and we sent in some more food => back to more people => more hunger => and so on.

if we stop the aid we will be responsable for milions of people who will die but their population will drop naturally until there are enough people who eat as much as their country can produce.
of course teire are some other factors. like their infrastructure, it's completly outdated and with some more modern machines they can grow more food. problem is that they need money for that. so it was good that the western world canceld the repayment africa had to do. now they wan use that money for buying those machines (provided af course if that money doesn't go in the local dictators wallet or in the corrupt goverments)

 

That seems a bit harsh...

 

It's not that harsh, actually. It's a normal demographical pattern of the Third World that more babies are born than can be fed and raised, leading to periodical demographic disasters; the only difference between this pattern today and in the past few millennia is that today, people from richer countries with different demographical patterns try to help out, try to help the Third World support its self-created population surplus. This tendency of providing aid to the Third World ignores the fact the economic growth in Western Europe only started after the area had assumed a different demographical pattern than that of having as many children as possible. In fact some argue that economic growth was made possible by this prevention of demographical disasters.

 

Yes, it does sound harsh Simon, but it really is the natural order of things. When a certain species of animal produces more offspring then its environment can handle, a large portion of them will die off to return the status quo.

It is a horrible way of looking at the problem, but even as omnipotent as we humans make ourselves out to be, we can't possilbly fight nature.

Good point, but Africa has the largest number of 3rd world countries/people in it, so it is not easily left out of the equation. Much of Africa's land is unariable. Much of it is inhospitable desert and rainforest, which has a very poor soil quality.

That is a big if. Take the USSR for example, when Stalin died, Kruschev became the head. He was nothing close to Stalin in brutality, but he was no better at bettering the USSR or establishing friendly terms with the rest of the world.

What I'm trying to get at is that the current dictator of a country will most likely lay plans for, after his death, the installment of someone he likes with similar polices as him.

I do know what you are getting at as well. The upward movement of the 3rd World is possible, but not on such a large scale. It will happen, more or less, one or two countries at a time. Maybe after a few examples are set, more will follow.

It is all so interesting and complicated, and I do look forward to seeing this all come to effect sooner than later.