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Ukraine

Discussion in 'The Stump' started by KodiakBeer, Feb 22, 2014.

  1. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    Amazing events in Ukraine. The protesters have ignored the "peace deal" (pushed by Putin and Obama and other international elements) and driven President Yanukovych from the capital. It's almost like they think the citizens are in charge of the country - crazy bastards! The police have laid down their arms and walked away. The army is like: "We're not home right now - leave a message."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIdaHFIMs9I
     
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  2. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

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    Perhaps, but Putin has a army and they will answer if he call's.
     
  3. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    I suppose they think an armed occupation by a foreign government is better than meekly letting a bunch of corrupt politicians sell the country to Russia.
     
  4. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

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    On the contrary, Russian troops brought in to "restore order" would only take this to a new level as disaster for the Ukraine and Europe. Yanukovych will bend which ever way the wind blows and no doubt is held in contempt by Putin, but Czar Vlad wants the Ukraine in his orbit and not a integral part of the European Union as the demonstrator's want. He has already tried to buy their loyalty, so I have to wonder just how determined to make this happen and he has already shown that dissent from the little people doesn't impress him over much.

    The thing is the crowd in the street won significant concessions over the last few days yet smell blood and are pushing for more. I sympathize, but more would likely mean no Yanukovych and that probably means no Putin errand boy in the Presidential Palace.

    The math here doesn't look good. The only bright spot is the Sochi Olympics and the impression made if Putin acts now, in a few weeks?
     
  5. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    I don't know what the future holds, but if the international community gives a crap about the situation there will be UN forces in place to forestall any Russian involvement. Unfortunately, I doubt the UN gives a crap, and the Europeans are all dependent on Russian oil and gas so they aren't going to do anything.

    It's going to get even more interesting.
     
  6. green slime

    green slime Member

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    Pushing UN troops in now would send a very dangerous signal, and something Putin is unlikely to accept.

    The Ukrainians are an educated bunch. They're still capable of sorting out this mess, and getting back on track. While many may want closer ties to the EU, it is important to retain a clear degree of independence, from both Russia and the EU. This is not an easy tightrope to walk for them.

    With the current level of tension between Russia and the EU, the EU would be well advised to have a hands off approach. Additionally, the EU has little weight to throw around. I wonder what you think they are capable of doing, and what would be the point of doing that now already? It's still internal politics in the Ukraine. Sabre rattling now will have the complete opposite effect, of what is needed.

    The "Europeans", furthermore, are not "all dependant" on Russian oil and gas.

    Russian Oil and Gas amounts to 32.6% (oil) and 38.7% (gas) of the total EU imports, primarily to Germany (36% of total gas consumption), Italy(27% of total gas consumption), France (14% of total gas consumption), and Eastern Europe. (2007 figures)

    Spain, the UK, Norway, Sweden, are still part of Europe, last time I looked, and they don't need Russian energy in the least. Finland uses a tiny portion (10%) in it's energy sector, and that is all from Russia.
     
  7. scipio

    scipio Member

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    Putin is a much clever operator than the old Soviet Bureaucrats.

    He is totally sick of the incompetent Yanukovych and will ditch him.

    I don't know how this will end but the Russians might cut their losses and opt to support a Russian East Ukraine and Crimea and leave the rest of the basket case to be supported by the long suffering EU tax payer (ie Germany, UK, Netherlands and the Scandinavians).

    Shame really, we could have left the whole of this mess to the Russians to bail out.
     
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  8. von_noobie

    von_noobie Member

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    From my understanding I don't think UN troops could be deployed in any case. With Russia being one of the top 5 they can veto any such move?

    As for the situation on the ground, Apparently even a number of police from across the country have joined the protesters. While I would prefer a peace deal I can understand their further pushes considering the blatant over use of force, ie: Using snipers for head shots rather then the option of tear gas, bean bag and rubber bullets or even water cannons..

    On the grounds of energy, The Saudis have actually stated they will produce what ever amount of energy is needed, They have expressed opinions contrary to OPEC that the price should be around $28 a barrel so as to help poorer nations grow (Ignoring all the internal strife and lack of far go's they do seem big on supporting economic growth amongst third world nations) so they could help the EU.

    Looking across the net I came across one interesting comment, Looking at the Ukrain based on a military standpoint. In the Even of a war between Russia and the EU (With Ukraine on their side) they could be in prime position to attack a number of area's as well as denying the Russians a Black Sea Fleet (Unless they invest into an entirely new naval base in Caucasus.
     
  9. Skipper

    Skipper Kommodore

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    I wouldn't be surprised if the country splits into two parts: the west being pro-EU and the east being Pro-Russian. both parts have a different language and a different culture too .

    On a more pragmatic way Putin does not need tanks : he has Ukraine's wallet and had put 15 billion on hold for a start. ...
     
  10. scipio

    scipio Member

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    There will never be a war between the EU and Russia - its an economic tug-of-war.
     
  11. von Poop

    von Poop Waspish

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    I've been following this stuff quite closely, considering it to be THE news story of the mo for anyone with even a passing interest in History, & a sense of Geography.
    What a place for potential civil war...

    Couldn't agree more, Skip.
    Despite so many outlets having a simplistic take on events (up to and including their reports on the protesters motivations - which seem wildly different in contrast to what was often reported, when you follow them to source 'The EU' is... not quite... the main motivational factor it's been painted as), this strikes me as far from over with the man's departure.

    Rarely have I found it so unclear on precisely who 'the good guys' are either - some peculiar people on both sides. if this is over, then a significant achievement has been made.

    Anyway, the shift in protesting events was (is...) remarkable.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  12. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    It seems pretty clear to me that anyone toppling statues of Lenin are the "good guys." I realize that there is an ethnic component to this also, Ukrainian vs Russian, but after all it is the Ukraine and for most of their history they have been under the heel of Russia or Poland. You can see why Russians or Russian leanings would be unpopular, especially after the mass genocide inflicted on them by Stalin.

    If you know any Ukrainians, and I do, they'll tell you that their roots are in runaway serfs who ran into the hinterlands to escape Russia, Poland, White Russia, Romania, etc. Many became cossacks and others simply became farmers and traders in a land with no formal government. For a long time they had no nationality, but were simply "free men" in a world of slavery. Later, they came under sway of the stronger nations around them, often willingly after negotiating a degree of autonomy. But, as soon as serfdom or heavy taxation was reimposed they'd rebel.

    It's happening again. Yanukovich was pushing to join the new trade zone which will encompass the former Soviet Union. They rebelled. They want no Russian influence in their nation.

    I don't know what the outcome will be. They're broke. They need Russian oil, gas and trade to have any sort of economy. Russia doesn't need to occupy them, it just needs to put the squeeze on them and starve them out like they did under Stalin.
     
  13. green slime

    green slime Member

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  14. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    After that video, I want to invite the Russians over here.
     
  15. von Poop

    von Poop Waspish

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    The deeper I dig, the more Ukranian sources I follow, and indeed the more Ukrainians I talk to, the more I realise how massively complex this is.
    Toppling a statue is such a straightforward-seeming act, but some on one side toppled statues before, and some on the other are uncomfortable with the current motivations, though they too have done similar.

    I hope 'they' pull this off.
    I hope if there is 'partition' or settlement, that it's clean, though such things rarely are.
    So many factions, so many points of view (including ones broadly on particular 'sides' that are diametrically & viciously opposed), so many external pressures & agendas - statue-toppling & Golden toilets are fun, but they don't tell any sort of complete story.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. von_noobie

    von_noobie Member

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    I see 3 options.

    They split.

    They sort out complex trade deal with both Russia and the EU.

    Civil war.
     
  17. Poppy

    Poppy grasshopper

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    28$ a barrel. 28$ a barrel? Talk about not paying for what the actual cost of producing a legitimate barrel of oil is. Oil should be around 100 buck a barrel. SA wants to reduce the cost of oil? wtf...Goodbye SA. Hope we (NA) never do business again. Y'all keep producing 1 barrel of oil at the cost of 2 barrels of human blood. ..Can we sever ties with all the crap that is Mid East? Please. Just let them do what they want to do. Without us. SA can deal with Iran etc. Enjoy living by your own swords. We tried to bring civility. Now time to back the eff out and let the cards fall.
     
  18. Sloniksp

    Sloniksp Ставка

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  19. belasar

    belasar Court Jester

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    Revolutions are by their nature messy things that draw to them people of all stripes hoping to remake the state in their own image. In Syria to our horror the same people who we have been fighting for a quarter century (Al Queada) is one of the players trying to topple Assad, they were also present in Libya.

    Let us not also forget that in our own revolution a compromise with slave owners had to be made to keep them in the fold, 90 years later we had to settle it in blood.
     
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  20. KodiakBeer

    KodiakBeer Member

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    I read something about a group of Israeli ex-soldiers who were originally from there, coming back to Ukraine to give firearms and tactical training to protesters. As Belasar says, revolutions are messy things that draw people of every stripe.
     

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