. Oh well , better to get it out of my system There is a theory , based on Mr. king Hubbert that as the cheap and easy to extract oil field get depleted , the smallers and hard to reach fields are used , the rate of oil extraction will reach a maximum ,then decrease . It is not that were are going to suddenly run dry , simply that there will be a decreasing output , slowly at first , then faster ( ~ 5% a year ) This is totally accepted by the oil industry , the U.S. geological survey and the majors oil companies , the only point of contention is ..When a number of people are saying it is in fact happening now !! with demand increasing 2% a year and production flat at about 85 Millions Barrels day, there is a bidding war on top of some serious speculation , weak U.S.dollar and geopolitical grief. It has some very serious consequences for the wagging of modern war which is very energy intensive , the pentagon bill passing 13 billions last year the people in charge of the purchase and distribution are the Defence Energy Support Center http://www.desc.dla.mil/default.asp This coming shortage was foreseen by a number of oil industry professionals and a number of public figure , including the VP Dick Cheney There is no changing it , it's a geological fact . on the bright side it mean we don't have to worry too much about climate change , the reductions are going to happen naturally with a trebling of the bowser price . .
Though few people stop to think about it, it is slowly becoming an accepted fact that within this century oil will run out, possibly along with gas and maybe even coal. Ignoring the economical effects this does mean research for alternative sources of useable energy becomes increasingly important.
The biggest problem is a lack of refineries. They can pump more oil out of the ground but there aren't enough refineries to deal with any increase in oil production. Also demand for refined oil is increasing faster then new refineries can be built. Then when you throw in the odd hurricane which means that refineries have to be shut down then the problems get even worse.
. To Wozwasnt, not really the problem is getting the stuff out of the ground To stix , I can see a peak energy argument in there , admiral Rickover , the father of the nuclear subs fleet had seem it coming So far there is no alternative but fast breeders reactors ....Yuckkk hydro is limited by geography , wind is unreliable , photovoltaics are very polluting in their manufacturing and produce less energy that it take to make them , the only alternative with a bit of reality is solar thermal collector connected to a stirling engine , For information it's possible to make gas from coal , the germans did it and more recently the south-African in the Sasol power plants , it's cost efficient at about 50$ per barrel but Stix is right , within one or two generations we are going to run out of fossil fuel . Then for a while , it will get really bad , like the soylent green movie with charlton Heston ultimately it will of course stabilize itself at a new population level , like ~500 millions . .
yes , its not that there will be no oil ...its just that there wont be CHEAP high grade oil anymore ..this is going to have a profound effecrt on life as we have always known it ,in electic power ,home heating , transportation ,food production ,everythjing ..i have eleven year old boy , when i reflect on my own carefree past half century , i feel somewhat guilty and more than a little foreboding for the next 40 years of his world ....
. well , things always turn out all right anyway , the U.S. ( and Australia ) are blessed with large amount of coal , the Canadians brothers also should be good Europe will suffer a lot more Anyway this power hungry society is great fun to be in but there is a price to it ,it's eating people up maybe a simpler lifestyle will not be all bad , I grew up in the Sixties from humble parents and it was good The bitch is going to be the transition , that will be a BaaaaD ride , especially in the big cities for the services industries and public servants I've planned my retirement in a nice small country town with a good garden Anyway I win !!
Alternative energy is slowly inching its way forward again. It just needed a the recent push from rising oil costs and environmental concerns
we also have the biofuels, but unfortunately comes with a controversy: the use of food for fuel, specially corn , but nobody complain when those grains are used for alcoholic beverages. as oil, coal can be exhausted and is the worst on pollution!!!!!! an unexploited source of fuel, are landfields ( and we have a lots of them!!!!!), they generate heat and methane
The effects of coal on the environment have been going down since the 70's. In most places the air and water is cleaner then 30-40 years ago.
Shale is plentiful in the US also and can be converted to shale oil. (62 % of known reserves are in the US) I'm not certain at what price it becomes economically feasible, though. EDIT- according to a Rand Corporation study oil shale production becomes economically feasible when oil prices reach 70-95 dollars per barrel.
the peak oil forcasters are not unaware of the shale and sand oil reserves . all oil reserves are finite and we have all these pesky third worlders who now want to drive cars intsead of donkeys and rickshaws and there is a lot of them too....
hey, you mean that third world peoples can not drive cars? what gives you the right to be the only ones to drive? US uses third worls oil, that it belong to them not you to revere: if that is truth, how come the US do not want to sign the Kyoto protocol, to cut the emission of CO2? ( coz we are the biggest pollutant!!!) to grieg: the price is already in that range, what are they waiting for?
Well the source I got that from was a coal commercial so you can decide whether thats reliable or not.
