How Germany could've won?

Hm,although not being a member of the Bafa,I have to disagree:the improving of the railroad infrastructure in NA was an Italian business,it would take years,and,it is dubious that with better logistics,Rommel would defeat the British,and,if he defeated them,he would be at the Suez canal (in the middle of nowhere)/
To put it bluntly :what woumd have more influence in London : the Germans in Alexandria,or the Germans in Moscow ?

About the defensive strategy defended by von Noobie :this would be a bad solution :it would mean a long war of attrition between Germany and Britain/the USA,which Germany never could win .And the result would be (when both were exhausted),a timely intervention of the SU .
WWI also was a war of attrition,resulting in the collaps of the civilians ,when they were hungry,in Hitler's opinion,the same would happen if there was a new war of attrition .
Building defensive lines along the Axis-Soviet border would be possible (and,it's very questionable),IF there was peace with the West .Germany was not strong enough to defend itself against the West,and against a potential hostile SU.

 

Taking Gibralter and the Suez canal would not force Britain to surrender. The reason Hitler went after Russia is that Germany did not have enough resources to fight a long war. Were it not for the supplies the Soviets sent to Germany, the blockade by Britain would have caused the collapse of the German economy. Neither German nor Italy had the means to increase the infrastructure of NA. Even if Germany did manage to capture the Middle East how was it going to get the oil to Germany. It would take years to build a pipeline through Turkey assuming Turkey agreed and Germany still needed all the other minerals. Also going through the Caucausus is a very bad idea, very nasty mountains with very limited roads.

 

The supplies sent by the Soviets were unimportant .
Exemple :the Soviet oil was 10 % of the German productopn (imports from Rumania included)

 

It as also food and other vital minerals. Even though it was 10%, Germany was short so what effect would not havingthe oil have had on training or operations? With the occupation of France, Germany also had to start providing oil to France. Germany had to import food before the war and the Soviets made up the loss from the blockade. The Soviets supplied all of Germany's manganese and arranged a delivery of rubber from Japan that allowed the synthetic rubber program to work.

 

No: I have other figures (from WWII Total for manganese,from Tooze for grain,from Titus Kockel for oil)

1940

Grain production: 24 million ton,imports:2.2 million,of which 1.2 million from the SU = 5 %

oil production :4.8 million,imports:2 million,of which 0.6 million from the SU = 12 %

manganese production : 250.000,imports from the SU:75000 ton =30 %

As,on 22 june 1941,the grain,oil,manganese from the SU stopped,and the German war machine did not collaps,why would the German war machine collaps in the summer of 1940,if there was no grain,oil,manganese from the SU?

 

[h=2]Total Trade[/h]Main article: Nazi–Soviet economic relations (1934–1941)
During both the first period of the 1940 German–Soviet Commercial Agreement (February 11, 1940 to February 11, 1941) and the second (February 11, 1940 until the Pact was broken), Germany received massive quantities of raw materials, including over:[SUP][46][/SUP][SUP][47][/SUP]

• 1,600,000 tons of grains
• 900,000 tons of oil
• 200,000 tons of cotton
• 140,000 tons of manganese
• 200,000 tons of phosphates
• 20,000 tons of chrome ore
• 18,000 tons of rubber
• 100,000 tons of soybeans
• 500,000 tons of iron ores
• 300,000 tons of scrap metal and pig iron
• 2,000 kilograms of platinum

Large amounts of crude oil were delivered, with German documents in July 1940 already indicating that the Soviets had delivered crude oil at a rate of 150,000 tons a month for five months in 900 German tank cars exclusively reserved for it.[SUP][48][/SUP]
The trade pact helped Germany to surmount the British blockade of Germany.[SUP][2][/SUP] By June 1940, Soviet imports comprised over 50% of Germany's total imports, and often exceed 70% of total German imports before Hitler broke the pact in June 1941.[SUP][49][/SUP]

grain before the first day of the invasion were it not for Soviet imports:[SUP][51][/SUP]
[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]
[TH][SUP]Tot USSR
imports[/SUP][/TH]
[TH][SUP]June 1941
German Stocks[/SUP][/TH]
[TH][SUP]June 1941 (w/o
USSR imports)[/SUP][/TH]
[TH][SUP]Oct 1941
German Stocks[/SUP][/TH]
[TH][SUP]Oct 1941 (w/o
USSR imports)[/SUP][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][SUP]Oil Products[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]912[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]1350[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]438[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]905[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]-7[/SUP][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][SUP]Rubber[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]18.8[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]13.8[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]-4.9[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]12.1[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]-6.7[/SUP][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][SUP]Manganese[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]189.5[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]205[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]15.5[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]170[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]-19.5[/SUP][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][SUP]Grain[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]1637.1[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]1381[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]-256.1[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]761[/SUP][/TD]
[TD][SUP]-876.1[/SUP][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 13"][SUP]*German stocks in thousands of tons (with and without USSR imports-Oct 1941 aggregate)[/SUP][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[SUP]Without Soviet deliveries of these four major items, Germany could barely have attacked the Soviet Union, let alone come close to victory, even with more intense rationing.[/SUP][SUP][52][/SUP]


[SUP]http://www.thefullwiki.org/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Border_and_Commercial_Agreement[/SUP]

 

While these figures are exact,the extrapolations and conclusions(52) are WRONG.

The Russian grain was 5 % of the German Grain production,for the oil 10 %,the manganese 30 %.
in the OTL,the grain production was 24 million ton,the imports from the SU were 1.2 million ton,from other countries 1 million ton :saying that without the Soviet imports (thus in the ATL),the German stocks would decrease by 1.2 million is wrong :why would it not be possible in the ATL to produce more and import more from other countries ?
the same for the oil:why would it not be possible to produce more and import more (from Romania ?)
the same for manganese
If one is starting (in the OTL) with oil:6.2 million and imports 0.6 million,and going to the ATL with import =0 and oil production 6.2,one is building a sand-back on quick-sand.

Why would the Germans not be able to produce more oil,if there was no import from the SU?
They did this in the OTL:

1940 production : 4.6 million, imports from the SU: 0.6 million
1941; production: 5.5 million,imports from the SU 0.3 million
1941 production : 6.3 million,imports from the SU : NOTHING
1943; production: 7.5,imports from the SU : NOTHING

Imports are not influencing the production.

Besides,the Germans failed in the summer of 1941

It is the same for the other products.

 

They can produce more oil but it is at the expense of using more coal which is needed for steel production.

 

Well,they did everything: producing more oil,more coal and more steel

from Tooze:

coal (anthracite only)

1940: 184 million of ton 1943: 190 million

steel :1940: 19 million 1943: 20 million

aluminium=1940: 210000 1943: 250000

 

But their demands were going up as well.

 

Remember that they were grossly ineffecient in their production and were able to make changes that reduced the amount of materials required in production. They also were able to make up German needs by robbing the conquered countries. The price was a greatly lowered standard of living for the occupied countries. Also did not produce manganese they were stockpiling materials. As far as the food one reason so many civilians were murdered was there was not enough food to go around. Even though Germany had a huge worker shortage they still were killing them.

 

some incomplete figures about manganese:


1935:Soviet manganese exports to Germany:235.880 ton

1936:Soviet manganese exports :606000 ton,of which 2232 ton to Germany

1937:Soviet manganese production :2.7 million,exports :540000
1938:exports:420000(to Germany 60900)

1939:exports:300000(to Germany 6200 )

1940:exports:120000(to Germany :65000)

1941 (1/2):exports:100000 (to Germany:75000)

In 1934,the Germans used 570000 ton of manganese i the production of 16 million ton of steel,of which 359000 ton (=2/3) were supplied by domestic sources)


The point is : One can not claim that without the 140000 ton of Soviet manganese (1940/1941) the Germans would not be able to start Barbarossa,because

1)one has to look at the stocks

2)one has to look on the German production and on the non Soviet imports

3)One has to look at the consumption

4)One has to calculate the manganese that was needed for Barbarossa (directly/indirectly) and,that's is of course impossible .

The use of raw figures is useless.

 

It is a simple fact that Germany was a net importer of food and most raw materials. When Germany went to war in 1939, the allies started a blockade. The Soviets supplies the materials needed by Germany to survive. Tell me where Germany produced the manganese from in its territory. Of course it didnt so it had to import them. If Germany didnt need the reosurces of the Soviets why was Hitler so desperate to get them, because Germany needed them to expand their production. In 1940 britain out produced Germany in tanks.

 

1940:German manganese imports :

from the SU :65000 ton

from south east Europe:48000 ton

1937 :German domestic manganese production :250000 ton

Thus,why would the SU deliveries be essential ?

 

maybe because Germany wanted to expand its production. Germany did not have Manganese production, the domestic was imports so without the imports from overseas the SU supplied over half of Germany's need. According to Tooze Germany in 1939 had to curtail military buildingdue to a shortage of steel.

 

I'm sorry for interrupting this interesting conversation but I've heard somewhere that Switzerland served the Nazi Germany for money laundry and to access world markets. They used stolen gold enabling the Nazis to acquire essential raw materials for the production of alloys: tungsten from Portugal, manganese from Spain and chrome from Turkey. All these raw materials were available from other sources.

 

1)WW2 Total is giving the world production of manganese in 1937 as 3 million ton
SU :40 %
India :17.9 %
South Africa:9 %
Germany :8.4 %

2)The Iron and Steel industries of Europe 9:
Germany ......has large reserves of manganiferous iron ore (= iron ore that can by used for the production of mqnganese)
In 1938,Germany produced 191000 ton of manganese and imported 425000 ton
from SA:250000 (63 %)
from the SU :60000 (14 %)
from Brazil :47000 (11 %)
Thus,we see that in 1938,the Soviet import was 30 % of the German production,and 10 % of the total.
A year late(1939),the imports from the SU dropped to 6000 ton ,and,Germany did NOT collaps,thus,why should an import of 60000 ton in 1940 be essential?
The same for the total figure ,which was 616000 ton in 1938 ,less than the half in 1939,and also less than the half in 1940.
The point is that in the first two war years;Germany had less than the half of manganese than in the last peace year .
Thus,it is highly questionable to say that without the Soviet imports ,Germany would have collapsed .
I do not see a connextion .

 

That's nothing special :it is an old story :the Swiss banks did business with the Germans,as the US banks were doing business with Britain and Japan . Nothing illegal,except the Swiss knew that the German gold was stolen .

 

I did not say that without manganese Germany would have collapsed. I said without imports of all items Germanyu would have collapsed. The Soviets made up for the loss of imports from overseas.

 

Well,for the other imports,the importance of the Soviet deliveries was even less:grain:5 %,oil :10 %

I should like to sea the importance of the loss of overseas imports,and the proof that the SU was making up for these losses .

Ex:in 1937,the German Imports/Exports from/to Latin America were almost 1.6 billion RM,I like to see that these were replaced by Imports/Exports from/to the SU.For the US,it was 900 million of RM.,while the Exports/Imports to/from the SU were in 1938 only some 90 million RM.

If the SU could make up,its imports/exports should go up by 2500 %,and I don't think this would be realisable .