Merkel Apparently Fears Devastating Defeat of the Ukrainian Army

(Translation by Eric Zuesse, 6 Feb. 2015)

Angela Merkel seems to anticipate the economic and military collapse of Ukraine. Berlin’s civil service is naturally working hard on a peace plan. To avert fiasco, Merkel must now discuss a truce with Vladimir Putin. This war could end profitably for the rebels.
Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande met on Thursday with Petro Poroshenko. On Friday, their journey continues to Putin in Moscow.
The federal government has denied a newspaper report of a peace plan by Germany and France to Ukraine. “This is not true,” a government spokesman said on Thursday evening to a report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung (Friday edition). The Journal had reported that Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande wanted to propose to Kiev’s President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday night an immediate ceasefire.....

More here:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/merkel-apparently-fears-devastating-defeat-ukrainian-army.html

Seems the plans of Kiew´s regime didn´t work out now Poro is crying for help to the EU and USA - but maybe the Ukies come to their senses and actually agree on some peaceful solution. It would help if the "west" refuses to support them any longer.





Kreml calls talks "constructive", next week they will phone again if ceasefire can be made.........let´s hope so for the Ukrainian people.

 

what's Germany's stake in this?

 

Germany doesn't have a real stake in this well not to the extent of Russia.

Germany as part of the EU naturally would like Ukraine to join, Bundesluftwaffe naturally thinks Putin is a saint so Russia will have no motive what so ever except to allow the minority of the Ukraine have the last say.

Comes down to two options, Ukraine will make a peace deal that no guarantee will stick, Or the West will start funneling in military advisers and equipment as Russia has done for the Rebels.

As an Aussie I have no issue sending over a few thousand 'advisers' and handing over all our old but still good equipment.

 

Perhaps Merkel and the French see a situation running out of control and want to end it before those wanting to pour petrol on the flames get their way?

 

The US has a great chance here to arm the new nato countries thanx to Russia´s action and create a ring around the European Russia as these countries fear that they will be next in line for similar action. I heard they will have so-called spearhead troops. If Russia is both militarily surrounded and the oil price stays low all 2015, the economy will sink like stone and there will be chaos in Russia, as the value of ruble has gone down already 50% by the end of 2014.

 

As I said before those wanting to pour petrol on the flames get involved.

 

Yes, the wind is changing it seems. More and more people are "waking" up here, mostly thanks to the internet must be said. But also mainstream press now often choses more moderate words on the conflict and some even report the war crimes by the Kiew regime. On of the biggest newspapers even reported the open letter to end the conflict peacefully by many German ex-politicians and other experts. I guess they acknowledge that not many do believe the "disinformation" anymore and so start to report more neutral on the issue. Only fanatics (Nazis etc.) would have an interest in conflict with Russia here I guess. Ger is the 1st country who should stay out of this, or better try to end it.


Also there was a poster above who claimed Putin is a saint (or I would see him as this), no he isn´t.

Also his views Germany/France have no stake in this is false. There is a real danger that the conflict in UKR might run out of control and involve more parties. Which then of course would be a huge sorrow to Ger / FR, also of course to Poland/Austria etc. But as he is an "Aussie" and far away from this he might not care what happens in Europe or to the Ukainian people (already ca. 5000 dead). I suggest to Mr. Von Noobie, if he is so keen to widen the conflict to our (Western Europes) borders than he should go there and fight for the Nazis in Kiew himself.

For people that need more info on history/causes of conflict, please don´t ask here, because I will post here only newer developments if I have info or time, you can view this threads last 2-3 pages: http://www.ww2f.com/topic/54818-russian-navy-on-verge-of-collapse/ (provided some links/info there)

 

we don't want that do, we? I don't know what's going on.. I need to read up on it....

 

1. Russia is doing quite ok, despite sanctions and oil prices. They won´t collapse in the near future...their debt is also far lower than most western countries.

2. It might be that Russia is still threatenig Finland to explain Kai-Petries views... however he need to show me some sources for this, as I haven´t heard of it.

3. You should not corner a bear too much, he may strike back.

 

That sounds a lot like "Peace in our time" doesn't it? Just let the stronger nation bite off a piece of the weaker nation.

 

You mean as "stronger" nation the EU/Nato right ? That wanted to draw UKR in their sphere of influence by regime change in Kiew.... but seems not everyone in UKR wanted that, so an uprising of the weaker ones (=eastern UKR) started. As these people were often Russians by birth, Putin decided to support them - which of course was right from their view, or do you want your people be slaughtered for foreign interests ?

As my OP proves, the EU at least seems to understand their plan has failed, as Kiew was not able to control the complete UKR: To the contrary the rebels won severall battles and are now on the offensive. Plan went up in thin air. Now EU leaders seem to come to grips with the new situation, admit they failed and try to end this thing before it escalates. Also of course public opinion in most EU countries would see this as a prudent move and might help Hollande/Merkel political in their own countries. As both approval rates were not the best. So it might be they pose themselves as "peace bringers" to push up their approval in their countries. Politicians often have motives behind thoese stated openly to the public. But that´s only one of severall views on the move.

Meanwhile US/Nato generals cry havoc and want to deliver weapons to Kiew, if they get their way, then we have a danger of even a bigger war. of course "under the hand" Nato already supported Kiew, but to do this openly would be quite an escalation I think. Also it is questionable that weapons would reach the Kiew forces, as a part of the western UKR army is in a state of chaos and desertion is rampart. Mayn people don´t want to die for the regime anymore - except the misslead and fanatics.

 

Russia is getting desperate. They promised to China that they will build the gas pipe to China ( Billions of dollars ) and sell gas for a lower price than in Europe. Now who does that? If you make a deal both sides usually pay for the pipe and the price is not lowered like it´s raining from the skies for free.

Finland has always been under the threat and actually today is quite peaceful to us instead of the 1945-1990 period. We are not afraid and we can do the same as 1944 again if we are tried. There are already new Soviet military camps created all through the Finnish borderline from south to north, but it does not change the fact the roads are not there, and forests are our friend, not theirs. If you cannot ski and you have not lived next to forests you are pretty alone with your hi-tech equipment there, and most of our borderline is simply forests and lakes. If you have to go there using narrow paths, we have the advantage, the Guerilla warfare. Spending two weeks in forest in minus 30 degrees celsius can be a pretty awful experience to Blitzkrieg tactics. For instance SS Nord got lost in the Finnish forests....

 

I bet with Kai-Petri that Putin has no agressive plans in the direction Finland or Baltics (would be also a totally strange strategic move)...... how much do you want to bet ? Let´s say a movie DVD or a CD? We can open this thread in a year and see. But I would like to see 2-3 sources of your fears regarding this issue.

 

Wow! The same logic was applied for the Sudetenland. And I suppose the same logic could be applied in many parts of Europe. The Baltic states have a lot of Russians, shouldn't we give those to Russia? How about the northern parts of Poland (Gdansk), shouldn't Germany take that back? And the American Southwest, shouldn't that be given back to Mexico?

 

I´d say the Baltics are more afraid, as they have joined the nato. Also there is even a part of Estonia I think that the borderline has not been established with Russia. Also there are more Russians living in Estonia as the Communistic politics was based to transferring people so that there will be no national ideology.

Personally I find it strange and funny that people in Viborg in Karelian isthmus say they are Carelian people and Viborg is their true home, as many of their parents and grandparents came from Ukraine by force in trains. The Finns left Karelia and all the houses were empty after the peace was signed between Finland and the USSR, some 450,000-500,000 moved away from the area the USSR was given.

What Putin thinks we don´t know. But we know how to fight anyone who tries to come here by force.

 

@ Kodiak Bear: You fail to see WHO was the agressor, Russia/eastern UKR reacted to agression. However I will not debate this here anymore, I quote myself:


"For people that need more info on history/causes of conflict, please don´t ask here, because I will post here only newer developments if I have info or time, you can view this threads last 2-3 pages: http://www.ww2f.com/...nks/info there)"

 

Dito here, I myself will defend my area and cities I live or lived in. Be it Nato or Russia who wants it. However I won´t fight for foreign interests or for agressors.


Ah and VON NOOBIE: If you want to come over here and destroy / bomb my cities, I invite you, cause you have to step over my dead body first.

 

I would like to see the people in court for shooting down the Dutch civil plane with massive civil deaths. The evidence is there, the idiots put it in the net and said we did it. No need to ask who did it, that victory dance was enough for me to see those "rebels" as idiots who shoot innocent people down.Did they even say sorry? No way. Double idiots.

 

Which "victory dance" do you mean? And which evidence you mean ? I have not seen any....the official report isn´t finished yet, and the temporary one says NOT that rebels shot down the plane. Do you have evidence to the contrary? Thanks for it, cause I am still behind this story. Everyone can check this himself at Dutch site.

Please provide: CVR, black boxes recordings and ATC records.....thanks,.

And please people support your claims you make, as I will not take serious any hearsay or missinformation by Nato-press.Anyone who posts here should provide PROOF. I am not saying that the rebels did not shoot down the plane, I am saying we have no proof that even the plane was shot down at all. There is still the possibilty of an accident.

 

Next you will be claiming we should stop supporting the Kurds/'Free' Syrians..........