Spain declares war on Britain January 10th 1941

Hitler meets Franco on October the 23rd 1940 and tells him that German troops will be entering Spain whether he likes it or not.
Franco is not happy but with his only likely alternative being war he decides to accept this fait accompli.
Besides Franco is offered Gibraltar, French Morocco and an expansion of Equatorial Guinea the later two shall be given to Spain on conclusion of the war so as not to upset France who will be compensated themselves with Britains West African Empire.
The attack on Gibraltar shall begin on January 10th 1941, this will give the Spanish around 2 months to prepare their defences in Africa and the Canaries.
Germany will give weapons licences for most of their equipment they will also supply a large number of modern fighters, tanks, anti-tank and anti-aircraft guns to the Spanish.
One Luftflotte will be dispatched to the Iberia and Morocco region this will later be increased to two separate Luftflottes.
One for Iberia and one for North Africa as far South a Dhaka.

How I think things will go.

Gibraltar will be captured within 3 weeks at most and any British attempts to take the Canary Islands and the Spanish Sahara should be beaten off with the use of the Axis powers vastly superior air power in the region.

Britain planned in such a situation to seize the Portuguese Islands of the Azores, Cape Verde Islands and Madeira.
This will be completed within several months.

The Germans had planed to occupy Portugal if this happened and force Salazar to declare war on the British which he will do.
The British will also then seize Portuguese Goa, Timor, Angola and Mozambique over the course of the year.

 

I like it.

 

Problem...Germany cannot supply herself with a large number of modern fighters, tanks, AT guns, and AA guns at this time...So, where are these coming from?

As to weapons licenses...The Spanish "success", or more to the point, a lack of it, with their Bf-109 and He-111 licenses would prove that German "promises" were just empty words.


On the uptick though...The Germans will now be forced to defend several thousand kilometers of shoreline providing an additional drain on German resources.
Can we say "Money pit"? I think we can.

 

Errrr.....As far as I can ascertain, the original message was posted 4, nearly 5, years ago.

 

And that was on of the OP's last visits.

 

I just wanted something else to read in this section.

 

Okie dokie, let's do this!

So are the Italians involved in this campaign as well? If so, this might keep Mussolini from invading Greece and getting run back into Albania. Then the Germans would not have to invade Greece to bail out their inept ally. Subsequently, there would be no huge loss of Fallschirmjagers or Ju 52s in Crete. This would leave full strength German airborne units to be employed in Operation Hercules. Or would invading Malta even be necessary if Gibraltar was taken? Hmmmmm. And the Ities, would they go ahead with their plan and invade Egypt? Would Rommel and the Afrika Korps be sent to North Africa to shore up the Italians, or would they assist in overrunning Egypt and push onto the Suez? Would Operation Barbarossa stay on schedule? Or be put off until the following year? An Axis victory in the Med would no doubt embolden the Arabs in the Middle East, which would lead to an alliance and supplementing Axis forces invading the "soft underbelly" of the Soviet Union via the Caucasus. Or would they follow Alexander the Great's footsteps into India, the jewel of the British Empire. And the Turks, would they stay out of the war? Greece under Metaxas was slightly pro-fascist oriented and very anti-commie, and admired the totalitarian regimes in Spain, Italy and Germany, but stayed out of alliances with them, and eventually becoming more Franco-Brito leaning. Could they be swayed in the Axis camp with the Royal Navy cleared from the Med? Regardless, the US would be drawn into the war courtesy of the Japanesers according to historical timelines.

Man, this would surely fonk up the works a bit. My brain hurts now.

 

I'm sure Benito will want Malta, and if Gibraltar is secure, then it would take British forces in the Middle East to repel anything Italy would do, so Italy could secure Malta and wait for forces from Egypt and India to come through the Suez.
I'm also sure Benito would go into Greece anyway. Remember what Mare Nostrum means. He might also go into Egypt anyway. It would mean, again, troops from India and the Anzacs to fight in the Middle East, like it did in real life.
So, it could just mean more German manpower tied up in Iberia, and maybe Barbarossa gets held up a month, just like in real life. The war might have taken just as long as it did, or maybe slightly shorter.

Take an aspirin.

 

We've done this to death over on TankNet. There are a number of problems with the notion, chief being that the second half of 1940 was a period of major re-organizing and re-equipment for the Heer. Here is one of my replies:

"Would the Spanish win? I doubt it if they faced the German forces arrayed for Fall GELB or BARBAROSSA. OTOH, what they actually faced in c. August 1940 - a much more likely jumping off point for this what if - wasn't as impressive. Southwest France was occupied by 7. Armee with I. A.K. and two infantry divisions along the Biscay coast from the Pyrenees to Bordeaux and Höheres Kommando z.b.V. XXXI (probably two divisions) in Brittany. Further east, 1. Armee and 12. Armee occupied south central France with Höheren Kommando XXXI in Lorraine, Höheren Kommando z.b.V. XXXXV along the western Armistice demarcation line, and XXXIV and XVIII A.K. along the eastern demarcation line with 10 to 12 divisions. Some 16 divisions in all.

The rest of the German forces in France were concentrated from Le Havre to Denmark - 6., 9. and 16. Armee with twelve A.K. and some 28 divisions (including four Panzer and two ID (mot)) for the assault on Britain...until the end of September when they began to disperse to their German garrison and the eastern frontier.

The rest of the Heer? By August it had returned to garrison in Germany. Most of the reservists in the infantry divisions - except those in France - were on leave and many had returned to industry where their absence was being badly felt. Roughly 20 divisions had been completely disbanded. The Panzer divisions were reorganizing and re-equipping. Those forces were combat ineffective until they were re-mobilized over the winter of 1940/1941 and spring of 1941.

So by August, there were in fact about 44 German divisions in France, two-thirds of them facing England, and only six of them mechanized. If Spain chose not to cooperate, then the Germans would have been forced to mobilize to face them, which would consume time. Time which Spain and its allies could then use. Those actions had already begun before any reasonable scenario might postulate such a significant strategic change of direction from Britain and the east to Spain and the south."

The Spanish had an army of about 20 divisions, with three of those in Morocco and replaced by three reserve divisions. Seventeen other reserve divisions were in various stages of activation at different times during the war, but the Spanish spent a good part of the war reorganizing and re-equipping as well. However, if they choose to oppose a German incursion to seize Gibraltar, they should impose considerable delay on the project. Meanwhile, the defense infrastructure on the Spanish Atlantic islands is almost non-existent. If the RN chooses to interdict the sea lanes to them the garrisons are on their own...Spanish air transport is non-existent and the German is busily trying to recover from the losses in Norway and the Low Countries.

So a German conquest of Gibraltar is pretty unlikely in 1940, which is why German planning anticipated January-February 1941. However, by that time the situation shifted again, Yugoslavia was a problem, as was Italian North Africa, Albania, and Greece. Most of the forces tentatively scheduled for Gibraltar ended up in the Balkans.

On top of that the loss of Gibraltar doesn't do much to affect the British war effort except morale-wise. Malta was more easily supplied from Alexandria and Alexandria supplied via the Suez Canal than anything. About the only thing it does is extend the coastline of Fortress Europe, bring another lame-duck ally into the Axis camp, make it easier for the few German U-Boats available to get into the Med...taking them away from the Atlantic convoy war, and hands the British the Spanish and Portuguese Atlantic island bases they need to better prosecute the war against the U-Boats. All in all a net loss for the Germans and Axis.

 

There's also the issue of now the Axis have another nation that needs oil but not another one producing any to speak of.