The Town Fascism Built

Boy that "Siberian" myth is certainly hard to kill...Worse than any PC virus.

Stalin had pulled out several of his Siberian divisions before he had heard from Sorge...11 Divisions in June and 3 Divisions in July, with none being withdrawn in August. So, that is 14 Divisions that were withdrawn before Sorge, according to author Gordon Prange, made his report on September 14, 1941. Also worthy of note is that various authors give Sorge's report as being in October, 1941, or as late as November, 1941.

Now, Soviet withdrawls for September were 3 Divisions, followed by 6 Divisions in October, and another 5 Divisions in November.

It should also be noted that many of the Siberian Divisions were never sent to Moscow, but to Leningrad and further North to the Soviet-Finn border.

This is all examined in some detail here. http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/the-siberian-divisions-and-the-battle-for-moscow-in-1941-42/#Red%20Army%20Divisions%20Transferred%20West%20from%20June%20to%20July%201941

and has been discussed here: http://www.ww2f.com/topic/29032-significance-of-siberian-divisions-a-myth/

Finally, most of what I have read has the Imperial Japanese Army spoiling for a rematch against the Soviets, and were awaiting the close of the Pacific War(expected in summer 1942) before they moved against the Soviets.

 

Actually, Sorge had filed many reports. Up until June 22nd. they weren't taken seriously by Stalin. Before then, it seems he regarded them as "unreliable" at best and "provocations" at worst. After he realized that Sorge's info was pretty accurate on the German invasion (his date was slightly off) did Stalin take his reports seriously. I can believe that he started pulling divisions out of Siberia after the German attack. It was Sorge's report that gave him the belief that he could denude Siberia of troops because the Japanese weren't going to attack unless it was a sure thing. I can also believe that there were elements in the IJA that favored a rematich. Somehow, the Japanese High Command/War Cabinet had an attack of sanity and realized that if China was bad then the USSR would be much worse.

 

I'd guess it depends on what you mean by "late 1930's". Prior to the Marco Polo Bridge Incident Japan was certainly in a position to flex their power. Whehter the term "poised" is correct is another matter. After that most of the strength of the IJA was tied up in China. With the deteriation of relations with the US due to the war in China securing oil and metals became an overwhelming concern so at that point I certainly wouldn't consider them "poised" to attack in either direction.

But from information presented elsewhere on this board Siberia was never "denuded" of troops. Indeed troop levels remained fairly constant. The vetran/well trained troops may have been moved west as well as the better equipment but there was always a significant force in Siberia.