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What if-Atomic Bomb was never made

Discussion in 'What If - Other' started by Major Davies, Jul 26, 2015.

  1. KJ Jr

    KJ Jr Well-Known Member Patron  

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    You have a point but...
    The Manhattan Project was in place since 1942. Some may argue as soon as early 1940, but officially by Roosevelt in '42. Although it cost billions to create factories and locations suitable for such an immense undertaking, US war production continued to accelerate up until peaking in 1944. Compared to the Japanese totals, in '44 Aircraft approx. US/Japan: 97,318/28,180. Tank production: 60,973/2,464.

    My point being that regardless of the immense cost of the Manhattan Project, the difference was negligible. The US was still out producing the axis powers. It was about lives.

    (National WWII Museum)
     
  2. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    Stalin was totally not foolish, Having a breakdown and causing the defeat of the USSR because he didn't see the obvious isn't foolish.
    I was using Barbarossa as the typical win situation. At the time even the allies saw it as the causeway for Russia's defeat. Nowadays we could point oh so many flaws and that can apply to other operations. Ah Terry Pratchet, yes he's a good author but that sentence was just personal opinion. Thats... well that alternate history question is kind of... technically the scenario of a Nazi space base is alternate history. Unlikely but possible which hence makes it alternate history. Remember it is just fantasy, not 'almost no difference to real life with one or two minor changes so it's ultra-realistic'.

    Question: Do you even write your own alternate history or just bash other theories? And if you do can you show them? Oh not to bash them but learn from them.
     
  3. green slime

    green slime Member

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    I doubt there would've been that much more produced, with the non-event of the atomic weapon.

    It was already decided quite early on the size of the forces required / desired to defeat the Axis powers.

    Even if there was, you're not only building more, you have to man more, and transport and store logistically a huge amount more. More becomes quite wasteful.

    It's not like the US was scraping the bottle of the barrel, and had no other resources to spend on other important technical developments.
     
  4. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Kinda stepping over the line into a personal attack. Takao does not deserve the tone you're using with him. Takao debates, that what he does. He also debates from a vast knowledge base which he has. He's told you that his definition of alternate history is one primarily fact based with a plausible branch off into an alternate course or courses. You obviously prefer a more liberal definition of alternate history, that's your perogative. You both are entitled to your particular definitions of the genre. He's not bashing your theory when he gives facts that make such a course unlikely, provide him with facts that support your position. He does not have to write historical fiction in order to judge a theory as plausible or unlikely.
    Just my two cents.
     
  5. USS Washington

    USS Washington Active Member

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    I'm going to have to take USMCPrice' side on this MD, you disagree with Takao and want to defend your 'what if', fair enough, but keep the personal attacks out of this, he did not make personal attacks against you, he simply put out historical facts that contradicted some of your statements, and also this forum doesn't tolerate confrontational type behavior like that, just to warn you.
     
  6. Slipdigit

    Slipdigit Good Ol' Boy Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    I hardly see that Takao is "bashing" anything. I would expect any member to counter suppositions that are obviously impossible or way off base from reality. Prove him wrong with facts, not with whining.

    Please read the guidelines for new Alternative History subjects. What Ifs have to be plausible.

    .
     
  7. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    No it's an actual question. He's really good at attacking so I'm guessing he's good at making his own theories. If he does I want to learn from them. In retrospect, yeah it does sound a bit attacking, but I mean the actual question. I apoligise if I sounded a bit angry, due to his well to me his way of writing his statements. But I do mean the question. I'll rewrite it if you like.
     
  8. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    It's all good guys...Heck I did not even take it as a personal attack. Compared to some Pearl Harbor What If debates I have had on AHF, his response is quite tame.

    I saw it as a legit question, which I will answer in a timely manner.
     
    Major Davies likes this.
  9. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    Thank you! Again I'm sorry if I did sound a bit angry.
     
  10. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Do not rewrite it as there is no need!

    I took it in the spirit it was meant...A legitimate question.
     
  11. USS Washington

    USS Washington Active Member

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    Alright, my bad, sorry about that MD.
     
  12. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    It's quite alright. I just tend to ask things in such a way. Call it me being young and all.
     
  13. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    You have nothing to be sorry for.

    No, you did not come across as angry, snarky, sarcastic, etc.
     
  14. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    Thanks again... well school calls!
     
  15. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    You didn't mean it the way I took it. Takao didn't feel it was an attack. All's good, I apologize that I misread your intent.
     
  16. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Too a point, but not much of one.

    The estimated $2 billion spent on that Manhattan Project was roughly six tenths of one percent of what the United States spent on World War 2(estimated to be about $300 billion - $350 billion...figures vary).

    Of the $2 billion only some $726 hundred thousand had been spent on the project by the end of May, 1944. Between June-December, 1944, some $572 billion was spent.

    So, to end the War by Christmas, 1944, you only have an extra $1.3 billion to play with. Likely, not even that, since it will take some time to ship the extra weapons overseas and get them into action.

    Now, not only do you have to manufacture the weapons, but you have to find trained personnel to man/use them. Then you have to ship them overseas. Then you have to provide the logistical support for these weapons once the get to there overseas destination port, move them to the front, and get them into action.

    As a point of reference, the entire B-29 project cost roughly $3 billion - $3.5 billion dollars.

    However, building the various weapons of war is only part of the problem...
    Extra manufacturing plants would need to be built, workers would need to be hired and trained - that is just for weapon construction.
    Then, you would have to transport these new weapons to various ports of departure

    All in all, I don't see an extra $1.3 billion as having much effect on reducing reducing the length of the war against Germany by any appreciable amount.


    For those who are bored and want to play with the Manhattan Projects financial data, it can be found here:
    http://www.osti.gov/includes/opennet/includes/MED_scans/Book%20I%20-%20General%20-%20Volume%205%20-%20Fiscal%20Procedures%20Appendices.pdf
     
  17. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    I believe that you misunderstood me here. When I said that Stalin was "nobody's fool." it means that he is not easily deceived.
    As such, I don't see Stalin as being naive in his dealings with Germany, as he had his own "good" reasons for doing so.

    I don't think that Stalin ever had a nervous breakdown...This line of reasoning only became popular in the post-1953 era of de-Stalinization. Others make a case that it was Stalin that was planning on attacking Germany first. While still others, IIRC, Glanz being the most prominent, credit Stalin's 2-3 day disappearance to Stalin's fear that he would be overthrown.


    Except Operation Barbarossa was not a "typical" win situation for the Germans...The Soviets outnumbered them in almost every category. Opinion only changed as the Germans moved, mostly, from victory to victory over their Soviet opponent.


    That is where, as I have stated previously, our views concerning "What if"s diverge. "Alternate History" is governed by history, it is not a carte blanche to explore any and all possibilities. Thus, not every thing is possible. Germany does not get 50,000 Tigers, her Type XXI submarines & Me-262s in 1940, Her Plan Z Navy in 1939, FDR is not a dictator, etc. While these are certainly "alternate", the are far removed from "history".



    That may pass muster on the various "Alternate History" forums, however, on the History forums, that I am a member of, that is not the case.

    "What If"s do not have to be ultra-realistic, but they do have to be realistic...Not much point to a What if otherwise.

    "What If"s are usually limited to one or two points-of-departure...For the simple fact that by having a great many PoDs, a thread tends to wander quite far from the original objective, and go off on way to many tangents.



    Let's return to you OP and examine it...
    There are 3 major PoDs: Einstein dies, Manhattan Project shut down, FDR lives

    Now, usually nobody dies, as this opens up endless possibilities for discussion and tangents, which detracts from the overall thread.

    The Manhattan Project is shut down...A good start, but you committed a forgivable error by linking it to Einstein's death. However, to rectify your mistake, you used the "magic wand"..."Poof" begone! Now how hard is it to think of a plausible "out" here? This is nuclear after all...A fizzle, an accident, something, anything...Well, anything, but the damned "Magic Wand."

    FDR lives, pretty much along the lines of someone dying, especially one as instrumental and involved as FDR, it opens up endless possibilities for discussion - Although not so much, with FDR dying shortly before the end of the war. Still, it is usually permissable, so long as the topic remains the focus...For example, Luftwaffe General Walther Wever living, but limiting the "What If" to discussing German long-range bombers.

    To this mix, you have added a plethora of secondary departures concerning the entire end of the Second World War, and into the Post-War period. With each one probably worthy of it's own "What if." We have; the invasion of Japan and it's success or failure, Japan's existence post-invasion, Chinese Civil War, Roosevelt-Stalin relations post-April 1945, Roosevelt-Churchill relations post-April, 1945, Roosevelt sells out Western Europe, Stalin takes Western Europe, No atom bomb, No Cold War, "Hot" War between the US-USSR...and I'm sure I have missed a few.

    While this cacophony is acceptable, even expected, when you are writing a Harry Turtledove novel...Novels are to be read for pleasure, not discussed for historical accuracy...This is a History forum where we do discuss historical accuracy, and as such, an effort is made to limit the scope of a "What If", so that the thread does not become bloated by discussing a multitude of topics and going off on innumerable tangents.



    I have not done any "creative writing" in twenty years or more. My taste in writing has matured over the years, and I have long found actual history to be more interesting than any "alternative history."

    So, yes, I just "bash" theories now. But only on topics that I have an interest in.


    Sorry, they wound up in the Lancaster County dump many years ago, tossed during one of my three moves around Lancaster, PA, between '92 & '94. Besides, they were historical fiction, not alternate history...Think Jeff Shaara as opposed to Harry Turtledove.



    What makes you think you only learn from writing Alternative history?

    How much have have you learned by my "bashing" your "Alternative History"? C'mon now be honest.

    Do you really think that I have all of the facts pertaining to my responses on instant recall, and don't have to fact check myself?...Oh wait, I have an image to protect...Scratch that last response...Kidding kidding.
     
  18. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    1. I don't see a problem with that view so I have nothing to argue here.
    2. Actually done properly it could have been, again another thread.
    3. Ah well, personal opinion.
    4. If you want history... well there are other parts of the forum you know? (Again not meaning to be sarcastic or snarky)
    5. Yeah I wish I rewrite my OP... I've learned that lesson!
    6. I like history but there is no interaction (if you weren't there), you don't connect. Honestly, why do you even do it? It won't affect you. Though I see what you mean.
    7. I feel like I earned a prize... of being bashed.
    8. I've learned quite a bit and can apply it in later situations.
    9. Hehehe...
     
  19. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Not much this time around.


    I'm game if you are.


    Yeah, but, at the moment, there is nothing of interest there.

    Then I saw someone had posted a new topic entitled "What if-Atomic Bomb was never made"

    Oh goodie...Atomic Bomb, one of my favorite subjects...Aw crap! It's a what-if...Oh, goodie, it could be promising...Aw crap! There is little here that is remotely historical...Oh goodie, that means there is work to do.


    No interaction...Don't connect...Doesn't affect me...Why do I do it?

    Really????????

    It affects me, it affects my parents, it affected my grandparents, it affected my great-grandparents, it affected my great-great-grandparents...aunts, uncles, great-aunts, great-uncles, etc.

    I had an uncle, Uncle Kermit, who served in the US Army and spent time on Guadalcanal, but was always very reluctant to talk about his time there. Except, every now and then, he would mention a brief snippet about one photo or another as I would leaf through a picture book at family reunions. I always wondered why he would never talk about his experiences( I was too young to know better), but having read quite a bit about Guadalcanal, I cannot even begin to imagine what hell he must have gone through to have affected him so much. I had two relations, that I know of, that served in the American Civil War, and three relations that served with General George Washington during the American Revolution.

    Don't connect...Go talk to any WW2 veteran, although they are regrettably getting harder to find lately, and ask to hear his/her story. I'll relate this anecdote...I was visiting my sister in NYC, and while she was off at work, I just walked around town. Anyway, I was having a cigarette, watching some street construction, and this elderly gentleman - out of the blue - points to his ballcap, which read "I survived the Battle of the Bulge.", and asked me if I knew what it meant. Well, I couldn't help myself, and I started laughing out loud, and the guy got this look on his crushed look on his face. I immediately stopped myself, and apologized. I told him that I knew exactly what that hat meant, and it had nothing to do with fitness. Then, I asked him if he would tell me his story...Next thing I knew, an hour had gone by and I had to meet my sister for lunch. I thanked him for his time and left...All the time we talked...I never did catch his name.

    Then there was a few years ago, while visiting the refurbished Cape May Fire Control Tower, they had two WW2 vets out to talk to the visitors, one was a survivor off an LST involved in Exercise Tiger, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Tiger and Wow! the tale he told. Chilling! The other gentleman was a marine that landed on Okinawa, but was hit shortly after landing & evacuated. He apologized and said that he didn't really have much to say. So I asked him about his his time in boot camp, and, well, he just opened right up...Boy did he have some good stories to tell...I had such a good time, that I never did get to the beach that day.

    Interaction...There are a whole slew of WW2 era ships up and down the Eastern Seaboard - and I have visited most of them, there is usually a WW2 reenactment going on somewhere, museums to visit, etc. Plenty of places to interact.

    None of this you will get from reading Harry Turtledove...You may as well be reading Harry Potter(good books by the way, perfect for just putting you mind in neutral and enjoying a good read)



    You've have a long way to go...This here "What If" forum is tee-ball compared to some others.

    When you can elicit from me such as

    NOW ROBDAB, EVEN I AM NOT THAT STUPID TO BELIEVE YOU MADE ANOTHER TYPO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Let's look at that paragraph in its entirety, shall we


    if your TYPO was 1941 when you meant 1940, THEN HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN AWAY THE SENTENCE THAT FOLLOWED IT!


    So, therefore, you think the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in June, 1940!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    YOUR SOURCE GOES ON TO ADD THAT



    THE SOVIET VOLUNTEERS WERE NOT CARRYING ANY LOAD WHEN GERMANY ATTACKED THE SOVIET UNION

    THERE IS NO OOOOOOPS! ABOUT IT, YOU HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT THE SOURCE BECAUSE YOU NEVER READ IT!

    PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD READ YOUR OWN SOURCE MATERIAL!
    [/quote]
    Yes...Bold and CAPS

    Then you will have earned you "Alternate History" badge...And both of us some cooler time.

    Mind you...that this was over on Axis History Forum, where the rules are a little more fast and loose

    That Robdab was such a moron!



    Cheers! Enjoy your stay, and I look forward to debating with you again.
     
  20. phylo_roadking

    phylo_roadking Member

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    One minor point, really...the Allies, Western and eastern, won in Europe despite the fact that the Atom Bomb was intentionally designed with Hitler and Germany in mind not Japan! Yet historical events show that it was wholly superfluous to events in the West...

    In fact, given the physical and monetary resources ploughed into MANHATTAN, it's not impossible that the wars in BOTH hemispheres could have been shortened, the PTO in particular...always carried on on somewhat of a shoestring compared to the ETO...if those resources had been used elsewhere... ;)


    On the scale of losses in the event of OLYMPIC/CORONET being actioned...I thought estimates for Allied casualties were nearer 1 million rather than 750K?

    I've also seen casualty figures for the Japanese verging towards TEN million, not four...four was battlefield and war casualties, but there was an almost-certain humanitarian catastrophe on the horizon; the Japanese intended to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties to "fire raids" on urban centres by simply carting tghem into rural areas an leaving them there for the locals to try to feed! No attempts were to be made....or under Allied air superiority COULD be made...to feed them by the Japanese government...through the winter of 1945-46 millions would have died from exposure and famine.

    It's also worth noting that the Americans also planned for OTHER weapons to be used in the reduction of the Home Islands to reduce Allied casualties - such as the widespread use of war gasses during the OLYMPIC/CORONET landings, and the bombardment of the Home Islands by remanufactured V1s...
     

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