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What if-Atomic Bomb was never made

Discussion in 'What If - Other' started by Major Davies, Jul 26, 2015.

  1. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    Estimates for the invasion of Japan vary wildly, because it never happened. MacArthur submitted one number and Marshall replied that number would shock the President. So Mac submitted a lower number.
     
  2. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    IIRC, he dropped some 20,000 wounded casualties that were expected to be returned to duty from his tally sheet.
     
  3. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    That's the slippery part of using "casualties" when talking about killed and wounded. Every time I see that word I want to stop and get good numbers to replace the ones the author gives. [​IMG]
     
  4. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Hard to say that there were any "good" numbers, as Richard B. Frank covered several casualty estimates in his book,
    "Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire"
     
  5. Major Davies

    Major Davies New Member

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    By connecting I mean, do you do anything about it? All your information is given to you by others. That's not connecting. That's just listening and being interested. Again my definition of connecting with a topic is different to your. And hahaha another mentions of Harry Turtledove. Maybe I have a better opinion after only reading his mildly realistic book series. (I dropped it when I found out he wrote one about aliens invading the Earth). Actually... well asking a bit much but could you write what you think would happen? That was the point.... but by 'bashing; it you kind of derailed it... no offence though.
     
  6. CAC

    CAC Ace of Spades

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    There is a direct connection to the way we live today to WW2...from how we travel to who our friends are...ask Japan if the war has changed them forever...
     
  7. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Perhaps, it would be best if you defined your interpretation of what you mean by "connecting." So, that I have a frame of reference for this discussion, because I now have no idea what you are talking about.


    How can I properly write about something I don't believe is possible, even given your various PoDs.

    - I don't believe that the United States will fail when invading Japan
    - I don't believe that US public opinion will do a complete 180, and sanction Japanese terms for peace.
    - I don't believe that the Soviets will "pour in support to communist China(other than quantities of captured Japanese weapons that they historically did) until the ChiComs finally defeat the KMT.
    - I don't believe that Russia will envelope all of Gemany.
    - I don't believe that the United States lacks the troops to defeat Germany due to the US war with Japan.
    - I don't believe that FDR has Soviet sympathies.
    - I don't believe that FDR will hand over Germany to the Soviets.

    Another point to consider is this:
    With FDR selling out Europe, their is now no drain on US troops and war material. As such, FDR can double down with his support for the KMT and Chiang(or will FDR sell him out too?) in China. No victory for Mao means no Soviet support for the ChiComs. More American support means that Chiang can continue to bribe his warlord generals, and the warlord generals will continue to support him rather than defect to Mao.

    The superpower roles are now reversed as to what they were historically...The Soviets remain focused on Europe, and there is no general communist revolution throughout Asia.

    A further point to consider...
    With FDR selling out all his friends and Allies, will the United States remain a superpower, or will they quickly be relegated to the "Almost ran" column.
     
  8. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    One of the reasons "reasonable" what if's are allowed on a number of the history forums is that they can actually teach one a fair amount about history. If you have a single POD and try to build a logical alternative from it you have to use a lot of historical fact. Conversly those with a different opinion are expected to back their position with historical facts that support it as well. Some of the alternate history threads here and elsewhere (axis history for example) are incredibly good sources of facts.
     
  9. Dave55

    Dave55 Member

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    I've read that the blockade option was the most expensive but have never understood why. Japan didn't have any merchant fleet or allies with a merchant fleet and US subs had already sunk almost every sampan and small vessel in the Sea of Japan with small arms fire. I know there was a lot of coastline but still don't see how it would have been very difficult to blockade.
     
  10. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Despite your beliefs, Japan did still have many merchies, sampans, and various smaller vessels(although not near what she had in 1941)...During the first 6 months of 1945, Japan still managed to import 2.7 million tons of 16 key war materials.

    The blockade was very effective, but not complete. To be complete, would require the bulk of the warships of the US Navy, and the required logistical tail to make it 100% complete.
     
  11. Slipdigit

    Slipdigit Good Ol' Boy Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    It was only after the book was published that Mr. Sanford told me the rest of the story about Normandy, the rest of the story Mortain, the rest of the story about breaching the Seigfried Line, and the rest of the story about that dreadful day in Siestadt and asked me never to publish those words. It is not fun to see a grown man with a tear or two rolling down his face and I feel somewhat that I have violated his trust by even mentioning that there was more. He wanted to tell the good side of the war and leave the horrors behind. That is what we did.

    Robdab made a brief stop here with about the same results. I think he had trouble finding the door by himself, so one of us moderators showed him to it.
     
  12. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    I'm not even sure it's reasonable to expect a 100% complete blockade. The Union never successfully imposed one on the CSA. However if you look at that 2.7 million tons in 45 I bet the monthly totals show a continued decline. Furthermore from what I've read it's at least my impression that some logistics targets in Japan were being pretty much ignored up to August but that was to change in the near future. These included some of the inter island traffic and the smaller railroads which meant that getting material where it was needed in Japan would become a progressivly more difficult process. The loss of vessels in excess of their replentishment rate and the loss of control of territory external to Japan would also have some impact.
     
  13. RichTO90

    RichTO90 Well-Known Member

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    One of the many reasons I finally gave up on AHF was the moderators endless excuses for why they allowed creatures like robdab to remain.

    BTW, for those interested in the Japanese Invasion casualty debate, the best starting place is D. M. Giangreco's Casualty Projections for the U.S. Invasions of Japan, 1945-1946: Planning and Policy Implications in JMH 61 (July 1997): 521-82. http://theamericanpresident.us/images/projections.pdf
     
  14. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    IIRC, the strategic bombing campaign neglected much of the Japanese transportation net. And, yes, it was going to change in the near future, and greatly effect the Japanese ability to distribute whatever products they were still producing, as well as, distribute raw materials coming in, especially food.
     
  15. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    The reason a blockade was going to be expensive is because it would be open-ended. We didn't know when the Japanese were going to give up. If we just bottled them up they'd sill be "in there".

    It would also have been expensive in lives. The proper term to use for this is "starvation blockade".
     
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  16. Dave55

    Dave55 Member

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    I didn't know they had that many bottoms left. I read the US sub reports saying they couldn't find any targets and came to the wrong conclusion. Shows what happens when you assume.
     
  17. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    The IJN merchant fleet could have borrowed a slogan from the USN boomers, "WE HIDE WITH PRIDE". They traveled almost exclusively by night when possible, laying up on the coast of Asia or some island for the daytime hours and then dashing out to reach to the next hidey-hole before dawn. In the daytime the rule was "if it moves, it dies".
     
  18. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    Weren't a lot of them pretty small craft by that point as well?
     
  19. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    The smaller they were, the easier to hide. This was a survival characteristic of the merchies at that point.
     
  20. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    Small enough and they weren't worth a torpedo either. Were any significant number armed enough to discourage a gun engagement with a sub?

    Wooden craft (almost by defintion small) would also use less strategic materials so could be built in larger numbers late in the war.

    I'm guessing most of the dominant factors pushed things in that direction.
     

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