The big problem for Japan here is that the US naval production plans were common knowledge (i.e. published in open works). By the end of 43 the USN would be capable of completely overpowering the IJN even if half or more of it were busy in other waters. If Japan isn't going to go to war with the US by the end of 42 they need to make sure that they don't go to war with the US. Continuing their campaign in China as well as attacking the Dutch and the Soviets looks to me like a very questionable way to do so. Given that the Dutch are already allied with the British attacking the Dutch is almost guaranteed to result in the British declaring war but it will give them some time to negate opening day surprises.