What if the German armies in Stalingrad attempted to break out?

Had Hitler had a lucid moment and decided that Stalingrad should be evacuated, no doubt about it, the 6th Army and 4th Panzer Army (part) would have gotten out of the cauldron, how many that is up for speculation but had the German forces gotten out they could have stabalised the front. Again that is speculative.

 

A big part of the reasoning for 6th Army to hold in place was simply the greater part of it was virtually immobile to begin with. Other than the handful of panzer and panzergrenadier units, all of which were critically short on everything, the army was foot and horse mobile.
To make matters worse, AGC and AGN had been largely denuded of equipment and replacements earlier in the year to allow offenisve operations by AGS. Thus, when ordered to relieve 6th Army these units showed up with a fraction of their full fighting strenght. 11th Panzer, a spearhead unit in the relief effort, for example had one understrength battalion of panzers (mixed Pz III and IV).

If we take a position that the withdrawal of 6th Army et al, starts earlier and the Germans attempt to form a new front somewhere to the rear of their initial positions much the same thing happens. Since the bulk of this line would consist of leg infantry units these would find themselves hard pressed to march to their new positions and then dig in for a defense in a timely manner.
More likely, they would have to abandon alot of their heavy equipment in favor of mobility to withdraw making them marginal in value for defense. If anything, the likelyhood is that the Soviets would do better in the face of a full German withdrawal due in large part to the poor mobility of the majority of the German army.

 

Easy, Germany surrendered on the 23rd June 1941.

 

eh?

 

Yeah well you know it ?.

 

Rod, even I have to admit that's debatable. I'm by no means of the opinion that Germany lost the war in June 23 1941.

Germany:

* could have won in 1941 (this has been discussed to exhaustion in this forum so we won't start that all over again);

* could have got themselves into a very good position (Caspian oil or no Caspian oil) strategically wise in 1942 if it weren't for that stupid fixation with Stalingrad the city;

* after the Russian locked Stalingrad in (6 Army and all the other formations compromised in this complex situation) it all went downhill, but I'd argue that there could be other options later instead the error that was Kursk.

 

Yeah, i know, just beating up myself with a plank of wood, after a while you either pass out or get to enjoy it.

How could Germany have won in 1941, every time i raise this i get shot down.

You are correct Army Group South could either go after the Caucasus oilfields or Stalingrad not both at the same time.

 

That's the discussion I was trying to avoid as we have already spoken about this so many bloody times I get the shudders anyone mentions the matter.

If Terry Gardner sees this he's going to murder me, but let me say that when I played tabletop hex wargames (a long way before computers and I was single) there was a game whose map covered an entire 10ftx7ft table and we still had an extra table going out the room door to accommodate the Caucasus. It was called Drang Nach Osten / Unenteschieden. I still have the monster tucked away. This was so big it required several players at the same time (God bless college, when everybody had time and resilience) and the game took weeks.

Of course this was 25 years ago or thereabouts and the game was full of errors and simplifications, a Pz division was as fresh after 3000 km as it was the day it set out from Poland, for instance.

Well, after all this explanation all I what to say is that it required an especially green or dumb German team not to win in 1941, 1942 at most.

Of course it was a game only, with some faulty rules and mechanisms, and we all had decades of hindsight, but...

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I remember a game where "we" were challenged by another club, and we took the Reds. It was amazing how the other guys spoke of themselves, how much they knew, how good they were, how they had done this and that, bla bla blah.

So we got a bit scared and decided to pull all the stops and play every single dirty trick allowed by the rules and use all our collective experience regarding railway chokepoints and all that. They were so bloody cocksure they simply HAD to be good. *

Suffice it to say that the game started on cue on 22 June 1941, in July entire Finland (sorry Kai) was under new management, in August Ploesti was being run by Sovoil (my sector, by the way), and the entire German army was lost and starving somewhere in Russia with all communication liknks cut, with no way to go ahead and no way to go back for whatever rail lines the partisans had spared were busily being used for sighseeing joyrides by the Komsomol

They never played again with us ever after, go figure!

* That's the Saddam Syndrome, you talk and bluff way too much, you get clobbered

 

I suppose if the encirclement had just be completed the German forces if ordered by Adolf Hitler to evacuate i believe that Generaloberst Friedrich von Paulas would have gotten his troops out, if it had been an orderly (under extreme conditions) rolling maneuver like Model did in the west then the 6th Army and part of the 4th Panzer Army would have forced their way out.

 

how?

 

Well, Za I have an original first edition of DNO/UN and the much improved Fire in the East and Scorched Earth versions from GDW. The later was much improved. In most of the games I saw others play of the later the Germans usually got their ....well you know handed to them.
In that version you actually had to blitzkrieg the Soviets to do well and surprisingly, few gamers actually knew how to conduct a blitzkrieg! Nine out of ten focused on defeating the Soviets in detail destroying every unit in sight and not on disrupting them and taking strategic ground and objectives. It was like watching a game of chess in which one side was obsessed with taking pawns and the other side had a limitless number of pawns to sacrifice.
Note: There is a set piece opening move for the Germans that can be gamed out with absolute certainty of its success due to the fixed set up and rules and such. Done right the Germans bum rush the Soviets and Leningrad is gone before they can defend it. Played by amateurs and the Soviets hand the Germans well, we've been over that.
The original DNO was seriously flawed. It usually ended up with a huge stack of Russians on each city surrounded by huge stacks of Germans and little anywhere else.

Note: Slipdigit tells me that this is post 2,000 for those keeping score.....

 

Yes, pray tell, give us a detailed analysis of how this would occur.

 

With slingshots and siege machines and a healthy dose of bows and arrows.

Are you guys telling me that if Hitler ordered Paulus to evacuate within a day of encircelment they (6th Army and 4th Panzer Army plus the various Roumanian units) well over 100,000 plus troops could not force a breakout this is in conjunction with an attack by Mansteins forces. I know you guys never give the Germans credit but seriously?.

 

Do you, Roddoss, even possess a list of the encircled divisions and have any idea as to their readiness and level of manpower and equipment at that point? How many tanks were still operational in 4th Panzer Army? What was the level of supply of these units? And, the weather?
Its all fine and dandy to simply wave your hand and make some vague claim that the Germans could have broken out. Historically, they didn't. Historically, the air lift was a disasterous joke. The relief historically was a pathetic shell of what was really needed for success. Put some depth into your argument and maybe someone here will actually take it more seriously than in passing.

 

If you want i can at least supply the German Divisions (Including Korps) involved that were trapped in the Stalingrad pocket, Roumanian Units are harder to track down, but i'll do my best, but off the top i guess it was around 20 to 30 divisions, exluding Army and Corps support staff. But my senario is that the Germans are ordered out by Hitler on the 20th November 1942. But again you forget that the Germans trapped in Stalingrad Pocket are in far better shape on the 20th November that they were on the 2nd February 1943 when they finally surrendered.

And i'll even supply the reformed divisions lost in Stalingrad and there new postings would that be well enough.

 

Wait, im sorry im a little confussed, why break out of a city on 20 November?
By this time the Russian assault just started, and the city was not encirlcled and the magnitude of the assault was unpredictable.

 

Well, let me cut to the chase here: The encircled units were:

IIV, VIII, XI, and LI Army Corps along with XIV Panzer Corps
14th, 16th, and 24th Panzer Divisions
3rd, 29th, and 60th Motorized Infantry Divisions
44th, 71st, 76th, 79th, 94, 100th, 113th, 295th, 297th, 305th, 371st, 376th, 384th, and 389th Infantry Divisions
20th Rumanian Infantry Division
1st Rumanian Cavalry Division
Without providing a long list of smaller units the summary is:
1 signals regiment
2 Nebelwerfer regiments
1 Heavy flak regiment
2 assault gun battalions
12 Pioneere / engineer battalions
150 smaller units including heavy artillery batteries, construction units, bridging columns, etc.

There were about 100 or so tanks in the encirclement with the bulk being in the three panzer divisions. The average strength of the infantry formations was between 3 and 5,000 men with a typical line infantry battalion having a rifle strength of between 100 and 300 men. Most artillery batteries were already short one or more guns. There were about 10,000 trucks and motor vehicles in the pocket.

Basically, ordering a retreat on 11/20/42 leaves 6th Army only two realistic paths across the Don River that are being held open by the three panzer divisions. One at Kalatsch, the other at Peskowatka. The Kalatsch crossing fell in spite of determined counter attacks by the 24th Panzer Division (losing over 50% of their remaining armor in the process) on the 22nd. The Peskowatka crossing fell on the 24th when all three panzer divisions were forced back across the Don and into the pocket.
At that point the daily ration for light artillery was 16 rounds and the various independent batteries and heavier artillery were no longer able to fire consistantly due to lack of ammunition.
Thus, starting the withdrawal on the 20th pretty much dooms most of 6th Army to destruction in any case. The various infantry divisions are not strong enough to do anything but mount minor, local counterattacks and hold their positions. There is little fuel and most motor vehicles are already immobilized due to this.
In the four days until the two escape routes close (assuming that the Russians close them on the original dates....a very likely occurance as they have near overwhelming strength attacking in this area) the Germans might have saved several thousand troops, maybe as many as 20,000. The rest would have still been lost and all of the divisions involved essentially destroyed anyway.
Either way, encircled and slowly reduced or, fighting a retreat out of the encirclement 6th Army is doomed.

 

Yeah it should have said the 24th November, sorry for the type-o, my mistake at not proof reading the post.

These German formations were lost in Stalingrad, this does not include Roumanian units.
() indicates reformation location
HQ Sixth Army, (Eastern Front)
HQ IV Panzer Korps, (Eastern Front)
HQ VIII Korps, (Eastern Front)
HQ XIV Panzer Korps, (Sicily,Italy)
HQ LI Korps, (Renamed LI Gebirgs Korps, Italy)
3rd Panz-Gren Div, (Italy)
14th Panzer Div, (Eastern Front)
16th Panzer Div, (Italy)
24th Panzer Div, (Italy)
29th Panzer-Gren Div, (Sicily, Italy)
44th Inf Div, (Italy)
60th Pan-Gren Div, (Eastern Front)
71st Inf Div, (Slovenia)
76th Inf Div, (Italy)
79th Inf Div, (Eastern Front)
94th Inf Div, (Italy)
100th Jeager Div, (Albania)
113th Inf Div, (Eastern Front)
295th Inf Div, (Norway)
297th Inf Div, (Albania)
305th Inf Div, (Italy)
371st Inf Div, (Italy)
376th Inf Div, (Eastern Front)
384th Inf Div, (Eastern Front
389th Inf Div, (Eastern Front)

Several sources of those trapped in the Stalingrad were some Axis forces were between 330,000 to 350,000 men. At the point of surrender 91,000 men were taken into POW and only 5,000 eventually made it back to Germany after the war, so in the end over 325,000+ lost their lives in the Stalingrad fiasco.

 

Yes, but these divisions only look good on paper. The 6th army was bleeding at a pace of about 20,000 men a week, do the math. These soldiers were far from the same men who entered the city.

 

Try about 100 tanks, 1800 artillery pieces, and about 250,000 men. As I pointed out the infantry divisions were running 3,000 to 5,000 men with line battalions at between 300 and 500 men on average. This puts them between 20 and 30% strength as the average German full strength infantry division is 15,000 to 20,000 men.
In many cases, battalions holding the perimeter of the encirclement had nothing but machinegun teams on their frontage. That is, two or three men with a machinegun holding what a squad would normally cover, six to twelve men covering a platoon frontage and as few as 20 or 30 men covering a full company frontage.