Libya no-fly zone

That only 4% of the Libyan oil export is going to the US,while 25% to Italy and 12.5% to Germany,is a fact,on the other hand;
1)May I remind you that the US are not the West
2)that,from the beginning,my POV was that the intervention in Libya has nothing to do with oil,but all with PC and sentimental humanitarianism .It seems that the days of Carter are back again,and we all(?) know what the result was ?

 

But,even an interruption of 2%of global production can cause a big increase of the oil prices,and,IMHO,with the present situation of the world economy,this is something we can't risk .

 

Anymore comment on that would lead to thread jacking so I'll just say this: You are 100% correct. In my industry, building/ construction, it is not uncommon for lumber and building materials to fluctuate in the wake of natural disasters or mega projects such as the Three Gorges Dam in China. Removing a million board feet of lumber or 10,000 long tons of limestone out of the the supply chain results in higher prices and one the price peaks and the commodity is resold prices stabilize. The same can be said for currency speculation and penny stocks....speculation needs to come to an end.

 

It's a risk worth taking if it opens up production and allows for more product to enter the market. I believe that Libya is capable of producing more oil than they do currently. One of the things that Ghadaffy has doen is keep the Libyan people impoverished so he can exert more control over them. Once oil production is increased more jobs will be created raising the standard of living in the country. The more people make money the more they are going to spend on 'quality of life' items. It's a win win scenario.

 

Better watch out mi amigo-or someone is liable to chide you for making a typo.

 

Evans, use my name directly. Don't be a coward.

 

Pm me if you can't control yourself.

 

That's not even on the same planet as cool

 

That's very doubtfull,because,(as sourced on Wiki) :Libya would like to increase production from 1.8 million bbl/d in 2006,to 3 million bbl/d by 2010-2013,but the existing oil fields are undergoing a 7-8% decline .
Of course,one could search for new oilfields,but,thus these exist?how much would be their production ?
But,I also have some other objections:to think that if the people is keeped impoverished,one can keep more control over them,is,IMHO,a typical liberal western POV,=thinking,if the standard of living is increasing,people will become tolerant,less extremist,more like us .Well,after 1933,the standard of living in Germany was increasing,but the Germans did not become liberal,tolerant,like "us".In the ME,it is the same :the standard of living is increasing,but the level of tolerance,liberalism is not.

 

Oil prices are of course of considerable concern to individuals, companies, and nations. However your assumptions about the impact and indeed how the prices are determined seem to be off or at least considerably different from the professionals in the field. If after the fighting is over Libya wants more income from oil then they will have to sell more oil. Givne that they only produce a small fraction of the worlds oil suppy they can't dictate the price. So while prices are going up now (mostly due to uncertainty) the long term effect of the current fighting may even be to lower oil prices.

 

Well it's not just pure speclation. For companies that require a supply of petrolium especially those like the airline industry for whom it has a huge impact on thier operating costs securing a supply is critical and doing so at the lowest price possible is very important. Thus they will bid on futures especially when there's a lot of uncertainty. I'd agree however that "pure speculators" (those who are buying and selling with no intent to use) are a major contributor they're also a component of our system that would be very hard to do away with.

 

It's not the interruption of the Libyan production that's the problem it's the uncertainty and not just in Libya. The other oil producing countries could easily pick up the slack for the Libyan production if they chose to. As for it being something "we can't risk" it's rather too late to make that proclomation and useless in any case as those in power have already demosntrated it's a risk they are willing to take. Indeed they may have judged that while this would produce a short term risk spike that doing nothing would produce more risk (and thus higher prices) long term. IMO it's not an unreasonable position.

 

Almost all oil fields that are currently tapped are in decline. It's a result of pumping the oil out. On the other hand very few are at peak production. Note that every time OPEC meets it sets or confirms oil production limits. Very few oil producing sites are pumping at their maximum capancity.

Who said anyting about standard of living or tolerance. Money and power are closely linked. If people have more money they have more power and are thus less easily controlled. I don't see that linked where tolerance comes into the equation at all. Standards of living obviously do but that's a side issue and it's impact on control can be rather complex.

 

The degree of power of a dictator does not depend on the degree of poverty is his country :see Germany in 1939 (before the war),see the SU before the war .The degree of power of a dictator is depending of the willingness of a part of the population to support the regime,and people with money can support a regime as well as people without money ;the assumption that,if prosperity is increasing,people are less easily controlled,and that the risk of a dictatorship is decreasing,is false:there is more prosperity in Libya,but,K is still there .
thinking :more prosperity =more democracy,more tolerance ,is IMHO wrong .

 

who said anything about standard of living ? See post 204

 

While it's not always the determing factor it can be very important.

But that was rather a special situation was it not? Germany had been in a depression and the Nazis took the credit for pulling them out. Thus the impression was that there standard of living was increasing as a result of the Nazi government. Had the war not occured and the probable collapse followed it likely would have impacted Hitler's control significantly.

Indeed and you don't think Soviet economic policies had some consideralbe impact on how long it took them to actually take over all of the Soviet Union and the unrest that followed.

In part and it is in part due to how well they think they are doing.

The people with money can make their support or lack there of felt much more readily than those without.

Is it? You certainly haven't proven it.

??? that's either a straw man or incoherent or both.

It would be nice to have something more than just your opinion. In case you haven't noticed not many around here seem to agree with your opinions. Of course in many ways this appears to be another strawman. The more prosperous people are the more powerful they are (the old money = power equation). Power means thay can act more effectivly to promote their beliefs/desires. If they are convinced democracy is a goal worth achieving then more prosperity can indeed lead to more democracy. If they don't believe that it's worth while then it won't. I'm not sure why you keep throwing tolerance around. I suspect it is greater in democratic states as opposed to rigid heiarchial ones but I'm not sure how relevant that is to the issues at hand.

I see now but I'd note that he pointed out how that could present a win-win situtation due to the economic effects. It didn't address tolerance nor did your counter address this issue. Another case of you dismissing valid points that you don't seem to find uncomfortable, perhaps because they challenge your beleif system.

 

oops, it seems I missed all the "fun" since yesterday.

Any news about the dog fight between the French and pro Khadhafi jets that ended up with with the Lybian being shot down in flames? Our local tv doesn't mention this but if I'm correct it's the first direct air duel since the coalition operations started.

 

You need to slow down and take a breath. As far as 1933 Germany is concerned the prosperity brought about through the new leader was used to manipulate the population. It doesn't matter if their tolerance and liberalism increase as long as their consumption and production increases as well.

 

I only heard of the shot down of one single Lybian jet but they didn´t told us who shot him down.