Whatever Raeder was smokin', I want some of that! His estimate however is almost totally absurd. The CV's Destroyer's and Sub's are pretty close, but no navy could produce that many BB's, CA/CL's. Nor does it account for the merchant tonnage needed to supply such a fleet, or the amphibious ships needed to execute a 'Island hopping' strategy. Either he was a complete fool or vastly overstating the needs to discourage somebody. In either case his comment can not be taken very seriously.
Belasar I think the real Erich Raeder would say something like this. Don't worry about the supply problem it’s taken care off. Through a combination of the new Dithmarschen class supply ships, which can carry 9,000 tons of oil and 4,000 tons of other stuff, Milch Cow U-Boats and the borrowing of defeated Britain’s merchant fleet the supply problem will be dealt with. On another note the real Erich Reader in 1940 did send memo’s to Hitler saying that Germany should over the next few years annex Ceylon and the Dutch East Indies and Borneo. Maybe this could be the beginning of the Island Hopping Campaign you speak of. Erich Raeder
So many ships to build, Though with the ship yards from across Europe they might be able to do it in a decade if they improved efficiency in a major way. I dont see in major conflict between Either Japan or Germany, Neither had the resources or would have the needed resources for at least a decade after either nations conquest not to mention the rebels they would be fighting (USA having Patriotic Americans and alligators and Australia having Spiders, snakes, croc's, Aussies, Koala's, Dingoes, Kangaroo's and plenty of sharks would keep japan pretty busy). At best there would be limited skirmishes, Small raid's etc etc, From which both nations would learn from and make adjustments with Japan improving there ground based capabilities and Germany deciding to build 80 Carriers and 15-20 BB's rather then the other way around .. In the end while there concentrating building up to destroy one another they lose the UK, Australia, Canada, the US, NZ, Ireland and PNG then they have an angry army of Anglo Saxons and Fuzzy Wuzzys after them.
Ok, playing strictly according to the OP parameters. By comparison, the Kreigsmarine wasn't on a par with the IJN. BUT! What the KM did better than IJN, was the use and deployment of submarines. Depending when this great disagreement would occur, the KM might be able to field a fleet of the type XXI boats, to choke points such as the capes of Africa and South America. The only island hopping the Germans would do, would likely start at Sakhalin Island, and move south. They would fight their way across Russia I should think. A place where German armor and blitz tactics are more suitable. Add jet aircraft, and even T-34's and other appropriated ex-Soviet armor, and the IA has an issue or two. Say the Germans make it across Russia, the distance to Sakhalin island is about a very wide river span. Well within their ability to cross, unlike the channel. And what weapons would the Germans have up their sleeve they didn't share with Japan? Hmmmm.
I don't think the German military could have waged the same type of warfare like the USA did in the Pacific, the types of offenses and landings, the fighting conditions. The Japanese fought like Hitler wanted all his soldiers to fight, fanatically to the death or suicide.
The US would have never lost to Japan, superior numbers of and quality of equipment, superior manpower, doctrine, and fighting. The Germans could never have fought the type of warfare the US employed in the Pacific because they simply didn't have the logistics, planning, materiel, and doctrine for that type of fighting and environment. Germany wouldn't have beat Japan in their own back yard.
Definitely a far out Ther "what if" but I agree with Martin Bull. I'll take Germany between the the two.
Unless you rearrange the geography a bit even getting them to come into contact takes a real effort. I don't see how either one can even bring the other to any significant battle much less defeat or victory. If you rearrange the Geography, how do you do it? Put Japan in Britain's place and you again have a naval power on an island that's essentially beyond the reach of a land power who in turn has a army that unless otherwise occupied is going to have little trouble repelling an amphibious invasion. Put the two with a mutual border of any size and I'll give the edge to Germany. Put both on islands and I'll go with Japan.
Germany couldn't have fought the type of war the USA did in the Pacific. They didn't have the resources, logistics, Naval support, and I don't think they could have handled the Japanese mindset and style in the same manner the US did.